Technicals | Apr 19 2012
By Robert Clayton
West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil: last US$104.26/bbl. Please refer to the following chart:
Technical analysis identifies significant trending features and in this case the two recorded "bullish outside range" days. One printed in October 2011, the other in February 2012. Since October 2011 crude oil (WTI) has had a tremendous run and still has plenty left to run according to the bullish two signals. Many are looking for reasons why crude oil has continued to rally. Technically, there is one main reason: the bullish outside range confirmation.
As it doesn’t look like this will subside anytime soon, the conclusion is that crude has plenty of room to run to the immediate target of US$105.50/barrel, then US$110.00/barrel. The journey’s end may hold to US$122.00/barrel.
The uptrend in crude oil appears to have started from the retreat from US$113.75/barrel back in April 2011 and rebound in October 2011 from US$76.50/barrel. Overall, crude could fall to US$97.00/barrel and still remain consistent with the long-term uptrend. A breakout above US$105.50/barrel has a technical upside target near US$110.00-50/barrel. In the short term the crude oil price may consolidate above US$101.50/barrel with US$97.00/barrel firm.
Overall, the longer term pressure to the upside will be consistent. The move towards the resistance target near US$112.00/barrel may be slower in coming weeks but the upward pressure should remain strong. The extension of the trend may end in a ‘parabolic rally’ following a successful breakout above US$112.00/barrel, targeting the US$116.00/$122.00/barrel window.
Rob Clayton has for five years produced technical analysis independently through his company ‘Robert Clayton Global Markets’ having for twelve years prior held the role of senior technical analyst at Westpac Banking Corporation’s Institutional Banking Division. He is now part of the team at GTL Capital Management. Rob’s reports are offered to institutional and professional trading clients in Australia, Asia, the Middle East and Europe.
GTL Capital Management provides trading and brokerage services specialising in Margin Foreign Exchange, Derivatives, Futures and CFDs to the institutional and sophisticated trader market. GTL Capital Management (AR # 416815) is an Authorised Representative of GTL Tradeup Pty Ltd ACN: 145 955 906 ASFL: 381 349.
For more information please visit www.gtltradeup.com.
Risk Warning: Trading in leveraged or geared products such as derivatives and margin foreign exchange carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. We encourage you to consider your investment objectives, your risk tolerance and trading experience when deciding to deal in GTL Tradeup products. We recommend you seek independent advice. It is possible to lose more than your initial invested funds when trading in geared products. Trading derivatives may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.
General Advice: Any advice or trading view provided by GTL Tradeup or GTL Capital Management is general in nature and does not take into account any of your objectives, financial situation or needs unless specifically agreed to by a statement of advice (SOA). For this reason, before you act on any information, you should consider the appropriateness of the information to you and if necessary seek independent advice. The Financial Services Guide (FSG) and Product Disclosure Statements (PDS) for GTL Tradeup products are available from our website www.gtltradeup.com or by contacting us by email: sales@gtltradeup.com or by phone: +61 2 8095 7520. The FSG and PDS should be considered before deciding to enter into any derivative or foreign exchange transaction with GTL Tradeup.