In Case You Missed It – BC Extra Upgrades & Downgrades – 06-03-26

Array
(
    [0] => Array
        (
            [0] => ((CNI))
            [1] => ((IMD))
            [2] => ((LRK))
            [3] => ((SCG))
            [4] => ((SDR))
            [5] => ((SIG))
            [6] => ((SUN))
            [7] => ((WTC))
            [8] => ((ADH))
            [9] => ((DDR))
            [10] => ((DTL))
            [11] => ((GGP))
            [12] => ((MND))
            [13] => ((SDV))
            [14] => ((SKT))
            [15] => ((UNI))
            [16] => ((WDS))
        )

    [1] => Array
        (
            [0] => CNI
            [1] => IMD
            [2] => LRK
            [3] => SCG
            [4] => SDR
            [5] => SIG
            [6] => SUN
            [7] => WTC
            [8] => ADH
            [9] => DDR
            [10] => DTL
            [11] => GGP
            [12] => MND
            [13] => SDV
            [14] => SKT
            [15] => UNI
            [16] => WDS
        )

)

This story features CENTURIA CAPITAL GROUP, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CNI
The company is included in ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

A summary of the highlights from Broker Call Extra updates throughout the week past.

Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)

Upgrade

CENTURIA CAPITAL GROUP ((CNI)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Moelis.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Centuria Capital’s first-half operating EPS rose 6.5% on the prior year to 6.6cpu. Look-through earnings (EBITDA) also increased 5%, supported by higher funds under management (FUM), management fees and performance fee releases, Moelis explains.

Real estate funds under management (FUM) rose 5% in the six months to $18.3bn, while Bass Credit increased to $2.5bn from $2.3bn.

Fee revenue increased 16% year-on-year to $92m, though the analyst observes earnings were partly offset by losses from the Sovereign AI platform.

Moelis lowers its medium-term forecasts reflecting assumptions for slower FUM growth, reduced performance fees and the impact of ResetData. Target price falls to $2.23 from $2.45. Rating upgraded to Buy from Hold on valuation grounds.

IMDEX LIMITED ((IMD)) Upgrade to Underweight from Sell by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Imdex’ first half result was characterised by margin improvement in a strong outcome across the Americas and earnings beat estimates, Jarden comments.

While assessing valuation considerations are “secondary” to the beat to estimates and the upgrade cycle for investors, Jarden believes it has been wrong in its conservative approach to valuation metrics for the stock and raises its rating to Underweight from Sell.

Overall, the broker forecasts FY26 core net profit of $55.4m implying strong growth of 28% relative to FY25. Target is raised to $3.60 from $2.90.

LARK DISTILLING CO. LIMITED ((LRK)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Moelis.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Lark Distilling’s 1H26 result was broadly in line and Moelis maintains an FY26 sales growth forecast of 18% year on year, implying a 2H weighting consistent with export and domestic restage rollout.

The key driver to sales in FY26 and beyond will be the size and cadence of export reorders after initial shipments are depleted. Global spirits sector multiples have derated significantly since covid, Moelis notes. Similarly, Lark’s multiple has derated and near-term expectations have reset.

At a -10% discount to FY27 sector multiples, the broker believes the downside is increasingly underwritten while export market growth provides re-rating potential into FY27. Upgrade to Buy from Hold, target 88c.

SCENTRE GROUP ((SCG)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

2025 results from Scentre Group were in line with estimates, while the maiden 2026 FFO guidance of 23.73c missed Jarden’s expectations because of higher base rates and a lower expected benefit from debt refinancing. 

The broker suspects many investors had already anticipated a soft result, judging by the share price reaction.  Mall fundamentals remain strong, although Jarden’s relatively dovish house view on rates supports a rotation into the more cyclical residential names where prices have rebased.

Rating is upgraded to Neutral from Underweight and the target reduced to $4.15 from $4.40.

SITEMINDER LIMITED ((SDR)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Canaccord Genuity upgrades SiteMinder to Buy from Hold, arguing recent share price weakness has created a more attractive risk-reward profile and that concerns around AI disruption to the company’s competitive position are overstated.

The broker notes solid 1H26 metrics including ARR of $280.3m, up 30% y/y and ahead of forecasts, while revenue rose 26% and free cash flow turned positive at $2.8m.

Management reiterated FY26 guidance with growth expected to trend toward 30%, supported by strong uptake of Smart products including Smart Distribution and Direct Revenue Plus.

Target price is cut to $4.96 from $7.67 following a shift to a lower valuation multiple.

SIGMA HEALTHCARE LIMITED ((SIG)) Upgrade to Buy from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Sigma Healthcare posted first half earnings that were in line with expectations albeit the composition was different to what Jarden anticipated. Sales were ahead of forecasts while margin expansion was softer.

Going forward, the broker surmises the risks are to the upside for earnings with the international roll-out and synergies on track. The main challenge is to confidently forecast revenue outcomes going forward, as well as leverage. 

Forecasts are largely unchanged and the broker, liking the health exposure, market position and high incremental returns on capital, upgrades to Buy from Overweight. Target of $3.60 is unchanged.

SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED ((SUN)) Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

First half cash net profit from Suncorp Group was below expectations amid lower gross written premium growth, albeit costs were lower, and Jarden expects gross written premium growth of 3.6% in FY26.

The required acceleration in the second half appears achievable to the broker, underpinned by bank CTP filings and motor repricing.

The June 2027 renewal will provide an opportunity for further reinsurance optimisation, including aggregate cover, while the increase to the existing $400m buyback is considered potentially attractive in a moderating premium environment and de-rating.

Rating is upgraded to Overweight from Neutral and the target lifted to $18.60 from $18.40.

WISETECH GLOBAL LIMITED ((WTC)) Upgrade to Buy from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden, while finding a number of unanswered questions following the first half result, upgrades WiseTech Global to Buy from Overweight.

The most significant new information in the result was the news the company will lower product & development and customer service personnel by up to -50%, as part of an acceleration of its AI transformation, commentary states.

A net cost saving estimate has not been provided but the broker calculates, using conservative estimates of salaries, annualised gross cost savings by FY28 of US$180m.

Jarden lifts EPS estimates for FY27 FY28 by 7% but takes a more conservative view on CargoWise, which drives longer term downgrades. Target is reduced to $63 from $74.

Downgrade

ADAIRS LIMITED ((ADH)) Downgrade to Overweight from Buy by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden notes Adairs provided two pieces of news in its first half results that imply 5-6% consensus EBIT upgrades for FY26 and further upside in FY27.

These include second half sales in the year to date that are up 6% despite tough comparables and commentary on gross margin and FX benefits.

First half trading was “solid” and revenue in line. The broker downgrades to Overweight from Buy given the macro risks and the balance sheet position relative to ASX retail peers. Target is lowered to $2.30 from $2.68.

DICKER DATA LIMITED ((DDR)) Downgrade to Overweight from Buy by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Second-half 2025 profit for Dicker Data was around 3% ahead of the consensus estimate. Jarden highlights strong operating cash flow (OCF) and solid revenue growth of 14% year-on-year, supported by the PC refresh cycle.

Earnings growth remains supported by further PC upgrade demand and a potential small business recovery worth more than $35m in annual gross profit over time, suggest the analysts.

Rising PC prices and increasing AI-related project opportunities are expected to lend further support.

Jarden sees a balance for gross margins as lower-margin enterprise and AI projects offset improvements from a recovery in small business demand.

Unchanged $11.20 target. Jarden downgrades to Overweight from Buy given the risk further rate hikes could slow the small business recovery and volumes may decline faster than expected following price rises.

DATA#3 LIMITED. ((DTL)) Downgrade to Underweight from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden points out Data#3 may have delivered pre-tax profit in the first half at the upper end of guidance but the outcome was supported by higher interest income and a non-recurring lease adjustment.

EBIT was in line with estimates and gross profit missed. FY26 guidance has been reaffirmed for high single digit gross profit growth and the broker suspects this is optimistic.

Rating is downgraded to Underweight from Overweight, as Jarden notes first half services sales were flat and buy side discussions signal the multiples for an IT reseller are coming under scrutiny post the recent tech sector sell-off.

Target is reduced to $7.70 from $9.60.

GREATLAND RESOURCES LIMITED ((GGP)) Downgrade to Sell from Hold by Moelis.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Greatland Resources’ 1H26 result was slightly ahead of Moelis’ estimates, with stronger costs offset by higher tax. The broker moderates outer year production and lifts capex and exploration to reflect lower grades and extension requirements at Telfer.

FY26-28 net profit after tax forecasts are cut by -6%, -4% and -15% respectively, as softer 2H production and rising costs temper what is described as a strong first half.

Moelis remains constructive on the long-term outlook for Telfer and Havieron, but argues the valuation already captures this optionality, even under a spot gold scenario.

The price target is reduced to $10.10 from $11.30 on revised assumptions and the stock is downgraded to Sell from Hold.

MONADELPHOUS GROUP LIMITED ((MND)) Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden raises its target price for Monadelphous Group to $32.80 from $31.70 after 1H26 profit came in 17% above the consensus estimate. It’s noted net cash of $150m supports balance sheet flexibility.

The broker’s rating is downgraded to Neutral from Overweight given a capex forecast rise which offsets some of the earnings upside.

While remaining below the 20-year average of 8.3%., FY26 earnings (EBITDA) margin guidance of 7.6% exceeds the 6.3% consensus estimate and implies to Jarden a 60bps uplift on FY25,

Core EPS forecasts by 23% in FY26, 18% in FY27 and 16% in FY28, reflecting strong revenue visibility from $1.2bn in recent contract wins.

SCIDEV LIMITED ((SDV)) Downgrade to Speculative Buy from Buy by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Canaccord Genuity downgrades SciDev to Speculative Buy from Buy and lowers the target price to $0.40 from $0.60 following a weaker than expected 1H26 result.

Revenue was some -20% below the broker’s forecast and down -10% on the prior half, while earnings (EBITDA) fell to $1.1m as gross margins declined and one key US customer significantly reduced volumes.

The earnings miss was largely attributed to the loss of volume from a major xSlik contract, which reduced EBITDA by about -$3.6m, although underlying business activity excluding the contract remained broadly solid.

FY26 guidance implies revenue of $100–110m and EBITDA of $5m or higher, suggesting a stronger second half supported by higher margins and growth in the Energy Services segment.

SKY NETWORK TELEVISION LIMITED ((SKT)) Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Sky Network Television has done a good job in stabilising the business over the last three years, Jarden asserts, although structural pressures continue with the company falling short of its three-year revenue objectives.

Of most concern to the broker is the fact core subscriber numbers are shrinking, falling to 825,000 in the first half, although the company has used price to help revenue and in this regard the remaining customers are “arguably higher quality”.

The broker envisages an increased risk that sport is used to cover most of the overhead imposts as entertainment appears increasingly weak.

Jarden downgrades to Neutral from Overweight on a more balanced risk/reward assessment. Target is raised to NZ$3.30 from NZ$3.15.

UNIVERSAL STORE HOLDINGS LIMITED ((UNI)) Downgrade to Overweight from Buy by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Universal Store’s 1H26 result was hard to fault, Jarden suggests. Profit was 7% ahead of consensus, with cashflow strong.

The standout, according to the broker, was the Jan/Feb sales growth of 7% (cycling 24% a year ago) and 1H26 gross margins, reflecting execution and continued market share gains.

While extrapolating these trends suggests large upgrades to FY26 consensus, Jarden thinks Universal Store will continue to reinvest, while conservatism on like-for-like sales is also considered prudent this early in the half.

Given potential for ‘stronger for longer’ sales growth, store rollout potential, optionality in Thrills Retail and net cash, the broker still sees relative upside, but downgrades to Overweight from Buy. Target falls to $10.00 from $10.69. 

WOODSIDE ENERGY GROUP LIMITED ((WDS)) Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Woodside Energy’s 2025 result was viewed as solid and largely in line with Jarden’s expectations, reflecting strong operational performance but limited new updates

Underlying NPAT of US$2.65bn came in slightly ahead of forecasts, supporting a final dividend of US$0.59 at the top end of the company’s 50–80% payout range.

Management characterised calendar 2026 as a transition year, with key priorities including completing the Scarborough LNG project, progressing further sell-downs of Louisiana LNG, and securing additional LNG contracts.

Jarden lifted earnings forecasts following a Sangomar reserve upgrade, which lowers depreciation costs and increases forecast EPS and DPS, although dividends are still expected to fall materially from 2025 levels.

Jarden downgrades the stock to Neutral from Overweight with a $26.25 target price, up from $25.20 previously.

Price Target Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)

More Highlights

AHL    ADRAD HOLDINGS LIMITED

Overnight Price: $1.05 

Taylor Collison rates ((AHL)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Adrad is moving into a structural growth phase, Taylor Collison observes, noting the first half restructuring and productivity initiatives.

The broker believes a leaner cost base is the first step to driving returns on equity back to double-digit rates and annualised cost savings of $2-3m are considered easily achievable.

The stock trades at a -50-80% discount to its peer group, despite multi-year earnings growth potential. Taylor Collison believes the discount is “simply too steep”.

FY26 and FY27 estimates for EPS are increased by 16% and 18% respectively. Buy rating. Target is raised to $1.60 from $1.35.

This report was published on February 20, 2026.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.05 Difference: $0.545
If AHL meets the Taylor Collison target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 4.50 cents and EPS of 10.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.05.

Forecast for FY27:

Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 6.30 cents and EPS of 12.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.37.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

3DA    AMAERO LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers – Overnight Price: $0.25 

Research as a Service (RaaS) rates ((3DA)) as No Rating (-1) –

Research as a Service (RaaS) has reviewed the first half accounts from Amaero, adjusting FY26 and FY27 forecasts to reflect the recent appreciation in the Australian dollar.

This results in a -4% reduction to FY26 revenue forecasts and -7% for FY27. Valuation is now $0.72 compared with $0.78 previously.

The company envisages re-domiciling in the US will position its shareholders for benefits from continued growth in the US defence industrial base, while maintaining a listing on the ASX and in turn provide access to a broader US investor pool.

Research as a Service (RaaS) research standard doesn’t carry any targets, ratings or recommendations. Investors can draw conclusions from valuations and commentary.

This report was published on February 25, 2026.

Target price is $0.72 Current Price is $0.25 Difference: $0.47
If 3DA meets the Research as a Service (RaaS) target it will return approximately 188% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Research as a Service (RaaS) forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 8.62.

Forecast for FY27:

Research as a Service (RaaS) forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 14.71.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BGL    BELLEVUE GOLD LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $1.82 

Moelis rates ((BGL)) as Buy (1) –

Bellevue Gold’s 1H26 result was broadly in line operationally, with earnings (EBITDA) modestly ahead of Moelis, aided by lease reclassification, while adjusted net profit of $2.5m reflected higher depreciation and amortisation.

Revenue was slightly below expectations and AISC of $3,133/oz was broadly as flagged, with no unusual treatment of accelerated hedges.

The broker incorporates higher D&A and lifts FY26 growth capex to -$105-115m to include construction of the paste plant, moderating near term cash flow and reducing asset level net present value by around -5%.

FY26-28 EPS forecasts are tweaked with FY26 moving to a small loss and outer year earnings trimmed on updated assumptions. Buy retained with a reduced target price to $2.20 from $2.25

This report was published on February 23, 2026.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.82 Difference: $0.375
If BGL meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.20, suggesting upside of 20.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1. 

Forecast for FY27:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 9.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.6, implying annual growth of 58.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.9. 

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EOL    ENERGY ONE LIMITED

Energy Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $14.42 

Canaccord Genuity rates ((EOL)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity maintains a Buy rating on Energy One and lowers the target price to $20.79 from $21.32.

Recurring revenue growth of 23% in the half was a key highlight, commentary suggests, supported by strong net revenue retention of 111%, although churn temporarily increased to 5%.

Revenue was slightly below expectations due to lower implementation revenue, while recurring revenue exceeded forecasts and cash EBITDA of $7.3m beat estimates.

FY26 guidance was reiterated, with the broker forecasting ARR growth of around 16%, within the company’s 15–20% target range, and a cash EBITDA margin of roughly 21%.

Canaccord Genuity views the recent share price pullback as a buying opportunity.

This report was published on February 26, 2026.

Target price is $20.79 Current Price is $14.42 Difference: $6.37
If EOL meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 12.70 cents and EPS of 34.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 42.41.

Forecast for FY27:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 17.90 cents and EPS of 46.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.35.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GGP    GREATLAND RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $14.45 

Canaccord Genuity rates ((GGP)) as Buy (1) –

Greatland Resources’ 1H FY26 result revealed underlying earnings (EBITDA) of $566m, broadly in line with forecasts by Canaccord Genuity and consensus. Profit of $343m also met expectations.

The company ended the half with $948m cash, up $374m, and remains debt free with around $1bn of liquidity, highlight the analysts.

FY26 production guidance of 260-310koz at costs (AISC) of -$2,400-2,800/oz is unchanged. First-half costs of -$2,176/oz came in below guidance.

The broker lifts its valuation for Greatland Resources on higher exploration value and potential West Dome Underground development.

Target is raised to $14.60 from $13.25. Buy rating is unchanged.

This report was published on March 2, 2026.

Target price is $14.60 Current Price is $14.45 Difference: $0.15
If GGP meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $15.67, suggesting upside of 14.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 94.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 100.7, implying annual growth of 58.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6. 

Forecast for FY27:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 95.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 64.2, implying annual growth of -36.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.3. 

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IPG    IPD GROUP LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers – Overnight Price: $5.16 

Taylor Collison rates ((IPG)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

IPD Group delivered first half net profit growth of 8% with EBITDA and EBIT slightly ahead of guidance.

Taylor Collison notes the first half would have been an even stronger had a large data centre project met original timelines. No full year guidance was provided.

The broker suspects a multi-sector rebound in activity is occurring with the company not mentioning any softness in commercial construction at this result, although competitive pressures remain.

There is also improved expenditure in view for the industrial, utility and mining sectors. Estimates are largely unchanged and the broker retains a Buy rating. Target is steady at $5.40.

This report was published on February 24, 2026.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $5.16 Difference: $0.24
If IPG meets the Taylor Collison target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 15.80 cents and EPS of 31.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.23.

Forecast for FY27:

Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 18.40 cents and EPS of 36.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.98.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JIN    JUMBO INTERACTIVE LIMITED

Gaming – Overnight Price: $8.67 

Jarden rates ((JIN)) as Overweight (2) –

Jumbo Interactive’s weaker Lottery Retailing performance reflects lower jackpot activity in the 1H26, Jarden notes. With its overweight jackpot games exposure, Jumbo’s apparent share loss to 6% of total sales is seen as consistent with the trend in poor jackpot environments.

Reiteration of 46%-50% Australia earnings margin guidance following a challenging 1H26 is encouraging in this context, though Jarden now expects an outcome at the lower end of the guidance range.

While recent underperformance in Australian Lottery Retailing is disappointing, the broker sees Jumbo as having strong leverage to a return-to-trend jackpot activity, and an earnings base diversifying away from domestic lotteries.

Target rises to $12.70 from $12.50, Overweight retained.

This report was published on February 25, 2026.

Target price is $12.70 Current Price is $8.67 Difference: $4.03
If JIN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.92, suggesting upside of 50.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 27.80 cents and EPS of 80.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.8, implying annual growth of 18.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3. 

Forecast for FY27:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 41.00 cents and EPS of 108.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 100.1, implying annual growth of 32.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.6. 

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VAU    VAULT MINERALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $5.75 

Moelis rates ((VAU)) as Buy (1) –

First half results from Vault Minerals were largely in line with expectations, although higher D&A drove a miss at the underlying net profit level, Moelis notes.

The interim dividend of seven cents, unfranked, was a surprise, without any additional direction to investors that this will be recurring. The broker asks, does that make it a special dividend?

Few changes are made to modelling and, while incorporating the dividend, Moelis chose not to include any further payments.

The business is considered “perfectly positioned” for a slow and steady market with assets that are largely unhedged and heavy lifting on the capital program at King of the Hills all but completed.

Buy rating. Target is $7.60 and unchanged.

This report was published on February 26, 2026.

Target price is $7.60 Current Price is $5.75 Difference: $1.85
If VAU meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.62, suggesting upside of 35.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 18.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.9, implying annual growth of 115.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5. 

Forecast for FY27:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 74.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.2, implying annual growth of 53.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.5. 

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VGL    VISTA GROUP INTERNATIONAL LIMITED

Software & Services – Overnight Price: $1.53 

Shaw and Partners rates ((VGL)) as Buy (1) –

Vista Group reported FY25 revenue of NZ$164m, up 10% on the prior year but below guidance of NZ$167-173m and Shaw and Partners’ NZ$167m forecast.

Earnings (EBITDA) of NZ$28.2m rose 31% with a 17% margin and gross free cash flow (FCF) of NZ$2.1m; all in line with the broker’s expectations.

The analyst highlights cloud migration is accelerating, with 724 sites live and guidance for 1,300 in FY26, and believes the pathway to FCF break-even in FY27 is increasingly visible.

Long-term FY30 targets were re-iterated, implying ARR of NZ$315m and EBITDA margins of 33-37%, which the broker argues signals a material lift in FCF to around NZ$75m by FY31.

Shaw maintains a Buy rating and lowers its target price to $3.70 from $4.10.

This report was published on March 3, 2026.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $1.53 Difference: $2.17
If VGL meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 142% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.25 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 122.11.

Forecast for FY27:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.95 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 51.79.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Click to view our Glossary of Financial Terms