FYI | May 11 2012
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena
I joined Twitter. Not because I am curious what this celebrity has to say about her kids, or to read that another one is waiting for a connecting flight, impatiently. Twitter allows me to follow news and commentary sources such as Dow Jones' Marketwatch, Bloomberg News and the Wall Street Journal. It assists me in keeping up with what is happening across the globe, while I am observing and analysing financial markets myself.
While I am on Twitter, reading a quote here and a news flash there, I offer my own succinct insights and commentary. Those amongst you who have already discovered the virtues of a Twitter account can add my Tweets to their daily news via @filapek.
For those who have no intention to join Twitter, but would like to stay up to date, below are my Tweets from the week past:
– Share market in Oz might start into negative as JP Morgan delivers proverbial cold shower after hours; global financial cancer still alive
– Aussie mkt, $A gives up gains after China data. Exports +4.9% and imports +0.4%. Looks like China growth slowing more than exp
– Chandler MacLeod spokesperson equally admits: reported jobs creation in April a big surprise – time to start doubting the statistics?
– More noise than reality? Randstad spokesperson on Financial TV admits today's surprise jobs market data in Australia really are a surprise
– Says Goldman Sachs: "Europe" is like cancer. It's not going to go away, unless it is being treated successfully
– Greece is the word? Nope, it's Spain. Get ready for (ultimately) billions in cash splash to save Spanish banks from sinking into the abyss
– James Montier (of GFC fame) explains why value investors are likely to fail in real life http://alturl.com/7qx2o
– Looks like investors in resources equities are again learning the hard lesson this week: "risk off" in particular impacts on these sectors
– Citi strategists forecast ASX200 to reach 4750 by the end 2012, driven by projected 5-10% earnings growth in FY13
– BA-ML Global Research strategists see gold at US$2000/oz by year-end, S&P500 at 1450, negative return for US Treasuries, Q2 'Bad Goldilocks'
– Post Fed Govt Budget, GS sticks with ASX200 targets of 4600 for Dec ’12 (+7%), 4900 for Jun ’13 (+14%) and 5100 for Dec ’13 (+18%)
– Note: Spanish government, previously insisting no additional state money would be needed, confirmed intervention being prepared for Bankia
– Morgan Stanley cuts US EPS forecasts to 17% below consensus for 2013; year-end target for S&P 500 remains 1167, 14.8% below today's close
– Analysts at Morgan Stanley see continued weakness for copper in near term; crude oil's path of least resistance seen as down as well
– The slow-down nobody talks about: ex-Apple US profit growth in Q1 is likely to average 4% only; further deceleration ahead in next quarters?
– Dennis Gartman says "I am long but wrong", equity rallies should be sold into, remains short euro, long CAD, plus long gold in euro
– Morgan Stanley: Correction risk assets likely to continue, cautious stance on 3-6 mths view; cautious on commodities because bullish on USD
– RBS is forecasting record base metal output in years ahead, with only copper showing a supply shortfall in 2012; oil price to peak in 2013
– Goldman's Oz strategists continue favouring banks over resources; also stick with companies leveraged to servicing mining volumes
– CS analysts report their confidence in Outperform rating for McMillan Shakepeare (MMS) increased further following industry investigation
– BA-ML: In an era of deleveraging, of low growth, low rates and low returns assets with GROWTH, YIELD & QUALITY should continue to outperform
– Pre-budget jitters: a potential cut of diesel rebate would likely have a significant EPS impact for the likes of Atlas Iron (AGO) and FMG
– A telling sign: global risk aversion instantly achieves what the RBA was aiming at: AUD/USD below 1.02 at 1.015 on Monday morning
– Norway’s sovereign wlth fnd sold all Irish + Portuguese gvt bnds after rejecting Greek debt swap. Warns Europe faces considerable challenges
– Conference Board: this [US] remains a weak economy, and [weak] job counts in March and April may perhaps continue right through the summer
You can add my regular Tweets on Twitter via @filapek
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