Commodities | Jun 05 2012
By Andrew Nelson
The best you can say for the global uranium market in May is; at least it was steady. Other commentators used words like flat, listless, sluggish and languishing, with the slight dip in the spot price over the last week of the month doing little to help matters.
Industry consultant TradeTech reports there were just 17 transactions in the uranium spot market last month, with just a tad over 2 million pounds U3O8 equivalent shifted over the course of May. The level of activity was well down on April, with the previous month seeing 3.2 million pounds being traded.
The bulk of May spot market buyers were traders, with the market seeing few signs of life coming from utilities. Despite the lack of buyers, prices remained steady, with TradeTech noting a decent level of activity coming from a solid increase in mid-term and long-term demand.
TradeTech’s U308 spot price ended the month down 25c from the end of April, finishing the month at US$51.25. The mid-term price added 50c to end the month at US$54.50, while the long term price was flat at US$61.00.
According to TradeTech, May was dominated by buyers looking for delivery later in the year, or early into next year. Given the seeming lack of interest in spot purchases, most sellers shifted focus to mid and long-term buyers as well. At the end of May, a very motivated seller hit the market with lower priced stock, which is where we saw the slight pullback in spot prices.
Last week, Trade Tech reported two transactions that totaled 150 thousand pounds, with traders acting as both buyers and sellers in the transactions. Over the course of last week, the U308 spot price gave up more than the minor gains posted over the month, with the read down $1.75 to $50.25. The mid-term and long-term prices were flat last week at $54.50 and $62.00 respectively.
Yet while trading remains sluggish, TradeTech reports some positive development over the course of last month that could translate into a better looking market in the week and months ahead. Canadian uranium producer Cameco said it plans to buy nuclear fuel trader NUKEM, while BHP Billiton ((BHP)) may well shelf plans for its Olympic Dam expansion project.
There was also positive news from the US Secretary of Energy, who claimed the re-enrichment of 9,000 tonnes of depleted uranium would not adversely impact the market.
There were some signs of life last week, with Trade Tech reporting there are still a few utilities out there that continue to evaluate offers. One non-US utility is still looking for 1 million pounds for delivery over a five-year period, while another non-US utility is looking for about 1.2 million pounds over four years. A third non-US utility is looking for 1.7 million pounds over the long term, while another non-US utility is looking for an undisclosed amount the be delivered between 2018 and continuing through 2023.
There was some activity that could affect shorter-term pricing, with yet another non-US utility seeking up to 2.9 million pounds for delivery beginning this year, while a US utility is reviewing offers for long-term deliveries that would begin also begin this year.
There was little in the way of Australian broker commentary on the topic of Uranium last week, although JP Morgan analyst Mark Busuttil did say he thought current uranium spot prices were too low and did little to encourage new production. He therefore expects prices will probably start to rise towards the end of this year.
In the domestic uranium sector, the broker likes Paladin ((PDN)) best given current M&A activity and on the view it offers the best leverage to uranium prices.
There was also a bit of good news that came out of China, with the Chinese State Council approving a new nuclear safety strategy, while also giving the thumbs up to current and under construction infrastructure. This is good news, points out Busuttil, as it clears the way for China to start approving new nuclear power construction and capacity plans.
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