Weekly Reports | Jun 29 2012
For a more comprehensive preview of next week's events, please refer to "The Monday Report", published each Monday morning. For all economic data release dates, ex-div dates and times and other relevant information, please refer to the FNArena Calendar.
By Greg Peel
On the assumption an E120bn stimulus pledge is not enough to save the world, one presumes we will be hearing more from Brussels over the next 24 hours. It seems the late headline which turned Wall Street around is still masking untenable division between EU leaders nevertheless. No one is really expecting a world-saving announcement, so we'd have to assume upside remains limited. A stalemate would, however, be rather poorly received across the globe.
The timing of the Brussels summit poses an issue for the RBA, which must deliver a policy decision on Tuesday. One presumes the sensible decision at this time, after 75 points of cuts these past two months, is to stay put and observe what transpires, both in a local sense of assessing the impact of those 75bps and in the global sense of whatever the hell might happen from here. The ECB and Bank of England both make policy announcements next week on the Thursday with the former expected to cut its cash rate, perhaps by as much as 50bps to 0.5%. Once again, the ECB is likely on edge as the arguments continue at the summit.
In the meantime we will see a lot of important global data. Perhaps today or maybe later HSBC will confirm its June manufacturing PMI reading for China, while Beijing is a stickler for its official reading being released on the first of the month, and that means Sunday. The rest of the world is content to wait until Monday, when we'll see manufacturing PMI reads from Australia, the eurozone, UK and US. All will follow up with service sector PMIs on the Wednesday, except for China, which will announce on Tuesday.
Whatever does transpire between now and Monday, Wall Street won't see a lot of action volume-wise. Wednesday is the fourth of July holiday and Tuesday sees a 1pm early close on the NYSE. With the US now at the height of summer, we're into vacation season and a seasonal slowdown in all activity. It's akin to Australia in January. It is, however, unemployment week in the US next week, with the private sector number out on Wednesday and non-farm payrolls on Friday.
Australia sees private sector credit out today, which the RBA will be keeping an eye on, ahead of the PMIs next week. Next week we'll also see building approvals, retail sales and the trade balance, all post the RBA meeting.
Today in Australia will be of trading under the influence – not just of last night's stockbroker dinner but of the end of financial year. Then heads turn to Brussels once more.
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