Technicals | Aug 09 2012
S&P 500 Stalls Near 1400 Figure As US Dollar Flirts With Key Support
By Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist, FXCM
THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar is flirting with trend-defining support as the S&P 500 stalls near the 1400 figure, with a turn lower for the stock index likely to boost the greenback.
S&P 500 – Prices are stalling having narrowly edged above the 1400 figure to seemingly expose the next upside hurdle at the top of a rising channel set from early June, now at 1415.20. A Hanging Man candlestick warns of ebbing upside momentum and hints bullish conviction may be fleeting. Near-term support lines up at 1392.10, with a break below that exposing a falling trend line established from the March 27 high now at 1385.70.
CRUDE OIL – Prices are testing resistance in the 93.21-90 area marked by the July 19 high and the 50% Fibonacci retracement. A break higher exposes the 61.8% Fib at 97.82. Near-term support stands at the psychologically significant 90.00 figure and is reinforced by the 38.2% retracement at 89.87. A push below that targets a rising trend line now at 88.01.
GOLD – Prices are testing resistance in the 1620.45-35.70 congestion area after bouncing from support at a rising trend line support set from late June, with a Shooting Star candlestick followed by a Doji pointing to fading bullish conviction and hinting a pullback may be ahead. A break to the upside initially exposes 1671.49. Trend line supports line up at 1590.14 and 1572.56.
US DOLLAR – Prices are testing support at a major rising trend line established from late July 2011, a barrier reinforced by the 76.4% Fibonacci expansion (9995) and the bottom of a falling channel set from early June (9973). A break beyond the latter boundary exposes the 100% expansion at 9925. Near term resistance is at 10038, the 61.8% Fib, with a push above that targeting the channelmidline (now at 10074).
The views expressed are not FNArena's (see our disclaimer).
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