FYI | Aug 10 2012
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena
I joined Twitter. Not because I am curious what this celebrity has to say about her kids, or to read that another one is waiting for a connecting flight, impatiently. Twitter allows me to follow news and commentary sources such as Dow Jones' Marketwatch, Bloomberg News and the Wall Street Journal. It assists me in keeping up with what is happening across the globe, while I am observing and analysing financial markets myself.
While I am on Twitter, reading a quote here and a news flash there, I offer my own succinct insights and commentary. Those amongst you who have already discovered the virtues of a Twitter account can add my Tweets to their daily news via @filapek.
For those who have no intention to join Twitter, but would like to stay up to date, below are my Tweets from the week past:
– Barclays lowers China GDP forecasts to 7.7% y/y in Q3 and 8.1% in Q4, resulting in 7.9% growth for the full year. Mild recovery for H2 thus
– Another set of weak data from China puts thesis about "imminent basing" econ to the test, but stimulus and rate cuts should not be far off
– Oz banks expensively priced, yet not at extreme levels, suggesting there's still some potential upside (but beware for inevitable retreat)
– Barclays: "We remain unconvinced that investors should chase the low volume 'wall of worry' August rally”
– GS: feels like market has gotten a bit ahead of itself; very little evidence that encourages Fed with another significant round of QE
– FX anticipated to become a drag on US corporate earnings in Q3 and Q4 this year http://alturl.com/3yccy
– Barrage of broker downgrades this morning: Boral, Credit Corp, Challenger, Charter Hall, Cochlear, Dexus, GPT, Investa, CPA and Telstra
– UBS observes at 2.3x book, CommBank (CBA) shares are now among most expensive banks in the world. Can the upcoming result sustain this?
– Observes Macquarie: "the last twelve months has seen one of the biggest commodity sell-offs outside a global recession in history"
– Marc Faber is positive on equities short term, but negative post the current rally. He too cites US earnings outlook http://goo.gl/u1dY9
– DB US strategist David Bianco is worried about Q3 earnings outlook. Thinks negative growth will become apparent, rare outside recessions
– Risk Assets continue drawing confidence from central bank support. NAB predicts AUD/USD will remain inside 1.0540-1.0600 range today
– Good story on "investing" – cannot be repeated often enough http://bit.ly/Rykltw
– Barclays predicts new Chinese leaders will be less ’growth minded’, instead more focused on rebalancing economy and structural reforms
– Bravest Call (thus far) in Oz: Macquarie declares the end of the Big Commodities Boom and US equities are to benefit, bond yields remain low
– Meanwhile in the background… US banks prepare for euro fallout by telling clients to either restructure contracts or go find another bank
– BA-ML switches preference to gold instead of industrial commodities. Thus Regis Resources (RRL) instead of Fortescue Metals (FMG)
– My take on August reporting season in Oz: more downgrades afoot, not just in Oz. How will FY13 estimates be impacted? http://bit.ly/NYjezE
– Macquarie's Best Idea for today is… a switch out of Rio Tinto into BHP Billiton. Strategists note Rio has been an awful "best idea" prior
You can add my regular Tweets on Twitter via @filapek
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