FYI | Aug 29 2012
FNArena has added another video to its Investors Education section on the website. This week ATW's Jerry Simmons takes a look at natural gas and its likelihood of moving lower. The prospects for the Euro, Aussie and USD also feature, as does crude oil and some of the soft commodities.
For natural gas, Jerry notes a key support zone at 2.00-2.70 was hit the week before last and with the chart sitting at around the same high for two weeks, he sees a good chance for another pullback. However, Jerry reckons the odds are favouring a range expansion this week, with 2.00-2.65 the initial target then possibly on to 2.43-2.50.
There are three 3 key questions to be answered this week. Will there be a move to a lower low, will we see a key bounce to the upside and lastly, will we actually see a range expansion?
More news from Jerry on the EUR/USD weekly chart, noting the 1.256-1.262 area has become a major, major resistance zone. A breakout past this zone will be huge and could well affect global equities, thinks Jerry. Unless a key support is broken, the odds favour a continuation to the upside.
The AUD/USD weekly chart is also looking very interesting to Jerry, noting we should be in for a huge week this week. A break below 1.384 will confirm a bearish set up and last week certainly exhibited bear market behaviour, but until 1.384 is broken, he can’t call it a confirmed reversal.
Last week saw a major breakout in Comex Gold, with an "openX closeX" forming and range expansion taking place. Jerry thinks we’ve seen a fully qualified break out to the upside, having already reached the next resistance zone at 1677. The next stop is at 1715-1735 and if broken, a quick run to 1780-1765 could be on the cards. On the other hand, a pullback to the 1645-1652 area would be a key event for a buy zone.
Crude has hit a 16 week cycle high last week, with Jerry thinking last Thursday’s pull back was a sign that traders are already respecting the level. Jerry expects a decline from here, although it could be as small as 2-3 weeks or it could be larger.
The Soybean weekly chart is still showing a bull market and has broken out to new multi-year highs. Meanwhile Corn finished last week at the weekly low. Jerry sees a breakout move coming this week, noting a break below 765-770 would favour a continuation move to the downside.
Apple posted a big breakout move last week as well, with Jerry noting some very bullish behaviour on the charts. A further push higher should see a target in the 695-700 range.
To view the ATW Strategic Prep Video click HERE or visit the FNArena Investors Education section of the website.
All views expressed are Jerry Simmons's, not FNArena's (see our disclaimer).
Jerry Simmons has over 25 years of full-time trading experience. He is the senior partner and head mentor for the “Masters” Programme within the education system at New York based Advanced Trading Workshop (ATW).
FNArena is pleased to have Jerry Simmons as a highly valued contributor to its service which aims at both educating investors and assisting them with their own market analyses.
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