FYI | Sep 21 2012
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena
I joined Twitter. Not because I am curious what this celebrity has to say about her kids, or to read that another one is waiting for a connecting flight, impatiently. Twitter allows me to follow news and commentary sources such as Dow Jones' Marketwatch, Bloomberg News and the Wall Street Journal. It assists me in keeping up with what is happening across the globe, while I am observing and analysing financial markets myself.
While I am on Twitter, reading a quote here and a news flash there, I offer my own succinct insights and commentary. Those amongst you who have already discovered the virtues of a Twitter account can add my Tweets to their daily news via @filapek.
For those who have no intention to join Twitter, but would like to stay up to date, below are my Tweets from the week past:
– Are we finally at the advent of the next Big Bull Market for equities? A historical perspective http://is.gd/UFR9xR
– Victims of the US economic downturn – 20 to 24 year olds – are Bernanke and Obama creating a lost generation? http://tinyurl.com/d8wczwz
– UBS: resources stocks to outperform on 3 month view given combination of global reflation supporting commodities and a recovering iron price
– Dennis Gartman has reduced exposure to US equities, and safeguard liquidity, as global political scene turning ill and likely to get worse
– Dennis Gartman: #crude oil futures market could get very ugly to the downside. Periods of intra-day strength are to be sold into
– Brazil's Vale: 1/3rd of global #ironore production not profitable below US$100/t. Expects near-term price of US$110-120/t
– Should I still update this? China import #IronOre Fines Fe62 down by -0.40 or -0.37% US$109.10/t. UBS sees further recovery to US$130 in Q4
– Will US investors continue to ignore disappointing corporate profits? An October dip? DB's Bianco asks the question http://read.bi/VhIbcg
– Bullish on oil? Then SocGen has a few things for you to look at/into http://goo.gl/yi6mU
– David Rosenberg: Fed has managed to negotiate a divorce between the economy and the stock market; truly a Houdini act of epic proportions
– France #PMI sector breakdown: Services PMI at 46.1 (Aug: 49.2), Manufacturing PMI slips to 42.6 (Aug: 46.0). http://bit.ly/PrRVym
– Barclays forecasts #China GDP growth 7.2% y/y in Q4, picking up to 7.8% in H2 2013. Annual growth rates 7.5% for 2012 and 7.6% for 2013
– Monthly PMI reports are usually not well understood. China PMI at 47.8 suggests pace of deceleration is stabilising, but still weakening
– Reports Barclays: #China flash PMI supports our forecast that real GDP growth is likely to slow to 7.3% y/y in Q3 from 7.6% in Q2
– #China Sep Flash PMI at 47.8 indicates ongoing deceleration in growth pace. HSBC anticipates "modest improvement" from Q4 onwards
– Morgan Stanley updates views and outlook on uranium. Sees higher prices on the horizon, initiates Paladin with Overweight, $1.90 target
– GS: Chinese economy going through a structural change. Expect demand for most commodities to lag GDP growth in the medium to long term
– Dennis Gartman: bullish of shares generally, believing that the monetary authorities are intent…globally… on sponsoring rising stock prices
– Prescient observation from Citi: more QE from central banks doesn't change that global earnings under pressure + still oversupply steel
– The day when #ironore turned boring: spot iron ore price eased by 0.1% to US$109.50 a tonne. Steel prices in Europe under downward pressure
– Chartist Daniel Goulding: we are just days away from looming correction in markets. Likely an important top in Oz, though not yet for US
– Today's profit warning by #MacMahon shows the danger of simply relying on management guidance; plus there's ongoing danger among the weak
– Citi: Corporate earnings to falter when process of deleveraging begins in earnest. Little faith policymakers succeed insulating economy 2/2
– Uh-Oh, Citi sees well-established trend towards shorter rallies post QE announcements. But no use in fighting Fed right now 1/2
– China (65% of seaborne demand) bought the most iron ore in 3 months in August and stockpiles at ports fell for the first time since March
– Nomura strategist Bob Janjuah: central banks' recent actions would be seen in future as a key moment in the downfall of Western superpowers
– Says Goldman Sachs: market recently got everything on our Christmas list and some more – it now seems hard to sustain the market enthusiasm
– Spot #Ironore makes a mockery out of everyone: yet another rise of 4.1% to US$109.60/tonne. Up 26.1% in past two weeks
– In case you missed it: online advertising has overtaken newspapers in Oz. Respective market shares are 26.9% vs 24.1% and 30.7% for TV
– Oz Stockbrokers: downgrades continue to outnumber upgrades. Today's downgrades affect CSR, J Hardie and Syd Airport, offset by upgrade MOC
– Macquarie analysis reveals Chinese companies increasingly short in cash with rising financial leverage; risks increasing to profits, GDP
– Commerzbank: growing risks of "speculative overheating" on the oil market. Bias remains to upside; longs at highest level since early May
– DJIA down for 14th out of past 15 Mondays. Has the Fed simply forced shorts to cover in a hurry? US economic data remain anaemic, at best
– The rally continues: spot iron ore price up yet another 3.3% to US$105.10/tonne (but RD/Shell warns Chinese demand for oil recession-like)
– According to NYT, 88 US companies have downgraded QE3 profit guidance versus 21 upgrades; Q3 profits on way to fall by 2.2% annualised
– David Rosenberg: Fed liquidity is a plus, valuations are neutral, sentiment is slightly negative but fundamentals are a BIG negative; pause
– Post industry feedback, JP Morgan reduces ad spend forecasts to +0.6% for 2012 and +1.4% for 2013. Only recommends SWM and PRT in the sector
– Anyone still interested? Spot iron ore price rose no less than 5.4% on Friday to US$101.60 a tonne – volatility and QE3 optimism at work!
– Barclays recently (again) lowered GDP growth forecasts for #China. Now believes 7-8% annualised growth is the "New Norm"
– Barclays predicts #China will disappoint both bulls and bears as current downturn is combination of structural and cyclical changes
– SAT China – State Information Centre- said"China Economy would grow 7.6-7.8% in Q3 2012 ^JR
– Investors better not get too excited about QE3, says ZeroHedge. Bad news no longer means "good"? http://goo.gl/IYrPh
– Maybe Julia Gillard, Wayne Swan and US President Obama have more in common than we think? (As goes for Abbot-Romney) http://alturl.com/kkqrs
– Noted: UBS remains Underweight Australian Equities (global strategy) with preference for resources post QE3, not domestic cyclicals, banks
– Dennis Gartman: Fed's QE3 early stage of tectonic trend changes: bearish bonds, bullish equities, commodities; inflation will be new trend
You can add my regular Tweets on Twitter via @filapek
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