Australia | Nov 06 2012
By Max Ludowici, Equities & Derivatives Advisor, 708 Capital
Aussie equities were stronger across the board led by the banks in a very thinly traded session as most finance circles focused their attention on the unofficial Melbourne Cup Day holiday. Well done if you picked Green Moon, I am yet to find anyone who did! The ASX200 closed the day up 11 points or 0.2% to close at 4484. The mid-afternoon rate decision (cash rate on hold at 3.25%) saw the market drop 10 points on the announcement, this was blamed on a difference in the consensus of traders who had tipped a cut (50%), as shown by the overnight index swap market vs 73% of economists surveyed by the WSJ who tipped a cut. Clearly traders weren’t as optimistic for a cut and were proven right. The AUD jumped above 1.04 after the announcement as the viability of the carry trade for overseas investors remained intact. We weren’t expecting much action from offshore either and Asian markets traded flat most of the day too as investors anticipate the result from the US presidential election tonight.
Investors are unsurprisingly cautious across the globe as results from the tightly contested election are expected to be released in tomorrow’s trading session. The market is on edge as there is still no clear favourite going into the big event. A Reuters poll has Obama just ahead as preferred president 48% to Romney at 46% but a quick scan of the betting odds (it is the Melbourne cup after all) have the Democrats paying 1.35 v 4.35 for a Republican win. Clearly nobody has a clue and it's still a two horse race. Adding to hesitation, China’s party congress starting Thursday will unveil the next generation of Chinese leaders. Though expected to go off without a hitch, this is additional cause for trading volumes to remain subdued for the week.
A quick scan of the RBA governor Glenn Stevens’ commentary reveals the RBA is leaving the door wide open for another rate cut at next month’s meeting citing, a stubbornly high AUD, softer commodities prices and a weaker labour market as persistent strains on the Australian economy.
The US market is set for a mildly stronger opening into the election day with DOW futures up 13 points.
This article produced at the request of and is published by FNArena with the expressed permission of 708 Capital.
708 Capital is a full service stockbroking and investment advisory firm. 708 offers investment and market advice to high-net-worth Private and Institutional clients in Australia and across the globe. 708's extensive network of contacts gives its clients exclusive access to ground-level fundraising opportunities and new company listings in a variety of small and large cap ASX listed companies. 708 has a longstanding track record of generating exceptional returns for its clients. Click here 708capital.com.au/contact-us/ for a no cost consultation and portfolio review or to learn more visit www.708capital.com.au. Note: 708 Capital offers wealth management services for Sophisticated and Wholesale Investors only. We cannot assist investors who aren’t classified as Sophisticated Investors or have verified assets over AUD$2.5m.
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