What Happened Today?

Max Ludowici of 708 Capital is visiting clients today and as such is unable to produce his regular report.

By Greg Peel

“Obviously not every Australian feels like they’re on easy street, but it’s really good to see that families are feeling the benefit of the lower interest rates they’re seeing under the Gillard government. Families right around Australia are benefiting from the government’s responsible strategy to return the budget to surplus, which has given the RBA room to cut rates repeatedly over the last year.”

The sad thing about this pack of lies spewed up by our self-serving, spin-driven treasurer is that many among the great unwashed actually believe him. At least that's what today's monthly Westpac consumer confidence survey would suggest, given a rise to 104.3, implying this month consumers have returned to being “confident” (>100) after fourteen consecutive months of not being (<100).

The contrast with yesterday's NAB business confidence survey could not be more stark. Businesses, NAB found, are the one's at the coalface and appreciate that a cut in the RBA cash rate almost to the “emergency” level of 2009 does not suggest a “responsible government” at all. Indeed, they know it means exactly the opposite. The Australian economy is on the slide, the Aussie is not playing ball because other developed countries are worse off, and the Gillard government is hellbent on pushing the sled ever faster down the slope with its political posturing.

(No emails please. Abbott-Hockey? Give me a break.)

Funnily enough, the same is true in the US. The most recent consumer survey across the Pacific (pre-election result) found a level of confidence not seen since 2007 before the GFC. Yet corporate America and SMEs in particular are waking up in a cold sweat after dreaming of falling off an endless cliff. This time we can't laugh in disbelief at those mad Yanks.

The ASX 200 has finished the day up 11 points or 0.3% to 4391. This is not a bad result in isolation, given the Dow was down 60 last night, but after yesterday's thumping it's hardly any sort of rebound. Consumer confidence is not enough. Tea leaf readers will see it as a bad day given the failure to reclaim 4400 (those not hiding under the bed from the eclipse, that is).

A quick perusal of the sector breakdown in the FNArena cockpit shows the banks have unsurprisingly recovered 0.7% after being caught in the tide yesterday and the yield-grab story is further enhanced by a 0.9% gain in utilities. Nothing from the miners today – they're flat.

On the reporting front, CSR ((CSR)) shares are up 7.7% after the company halved its profit and cautioned of an uncertain outlook, again. The result matched expectations, which was clearly a relief. Not so Dulux ((DLX)) which won't be painting the town red tonight after posting a “miss”. The shares nevertheless closed flat. Or matte. Graincorp will post tomorrow (I wish these companies could just stick to my calendar) while Webjet ((WEB)) flew out of the blue with a profit warning that has sent its shares into a 15% death spiral. Wesfarmers ((WES)) has confirmed its full-year guidance in late mail.

Read all about it, and more, in tomorrow's FNArena Broker Call.

The Asian markets have not done anything particularly exciting today as as I write, the Dow futures are up 38. On last night's performance this doesn't mean much.

So it's back to cliffs and moussaka (and perhaps paella) for tonight's round of fun and games.

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