Daily Market Reports | Apr 24 2013
Greg Peel
The Dow rose 152 points, or 1.1%, while the S&P gained 1.0% to 1578 and the Nasdaq added 1.1%.
Welcome to the Brave New World of social media and computer algorithms. Or perhaps that should be the Cowardly New World. Last night the Twitter account of Associated Press was hacked and a fake message was sent suggesting the White House had been bombed and the president had been hurt. At the time, the Dow was up around 120 points. A minute later, it was down 10.
Another minute later, it was back up 120 again. Associated Press had shut down the account and issued a denouncement.
It’s a bit hard to know which is more scary. The fact someone can hack into the Twitter account of one of the world’s largest and most respected press agencies, or that Wall Street computers now scan news services for keywords such as “explosion” and “White House” that trigger rapid-fire sell-orders without any human intervention. Or even the fact that if you’d popped out to the loo at 1.10pm you’d not have been any the wiser.
Or the fact that the SEC is considering whether to allow company earnings reports to be announced on Twitter. I know my answer.
On the subject of US earnings, announced over the internet, it was a positive session. Dow components Du Pont and Travelers posted strong results that sent their shares up 4% and 2% respectively. Morgan Stanley upgraded Bank of America (Dow) to Overweight and it rose 3%. Having reported after the bell on Monday night, Netflix held its 24% gain. Luxury handbag retailer Coach jumped 10%. And after the bell Apple, which has long raked in the cash but has been reluctant to share it, announced a buyback and dividend increase which sent its shares up 5%.
We are one quarter of the way through the season in terms of S&P 500 stocks. To date, 69% have beaten expectations on earnings. That seems very positive, except that only 42% have beaten on revenue. Cost cutting continues to be the major driver of earnings beats, and that is not a particularly healthy sign. The good news is that to date there has been little change – that is no notable downgrades – to June quarter guidance.
On the economic front, last night’s releases were mixed. Fears the housing market recovery had stumbled were put to bed with the release of the FHFA house price index of houses under Fannie/Freddie mortgages, which rose rose 0.7% in February or 7.1% year on year, and sales of new homes, which rose 1.5% in March or 18.5% year on year.
On the other hand, the Richmond Fed manufacturing index has fallen to minus 6 in April from plus 3 in March. And the flash estimate of the US April manufacturing PMI came in at 52.0, down from 54.6 in March. The ramifications of the sequester budget cuts are being blamed for slowing manufacturing activity.
Earlier on, in the Asian session, HSBC announced that its flash estimate of China’s manufacturing PMI had fallen to 50.5% from 51.6%. It’s a two-month low for the index, and a fall in new export orders was largely to blame. The travails of Europe resound from Brussels to Shanghai and on to Perth. Not that the Australian stock market seemed particularly perturbed yesterday, given a 1% gain.
On the ground in Europe, the eurozone estimate of composite PMI (manufacturing plus services) remained steady at a contractionary 46.5. Germany’s composite fell into contraction at 48.8.
None of which seemed to bother Wall Street, which is clearly back in buy mode. The April all-time high in the S&P 500 is back to being only 15 points away following last night’s 16 point gain.
The eurozone PMI data apparently disappointed the Europeans (you’d think they’d be used to it by now) and hence the euro fell, sending the US dollar index up 0.5% to 83.02. Most disconcerting is Germany’s slip into contraction. The dollar jump took the wind out of gold’s rebound, and it fell US$11.30 to US$1414.60/oz. The Aussie is steady at US$1.0268.
The dollar didn’t help the LME either, with base metals mostly falling again and copper down another 1.6%. Traders in London are waiting to see just when the Chinese will call copper cheap enough and start buying. So far, nothing.
The oils were quiet last night, with Brent little changed at US$100.31/bbl and West Texas up a tad to US$89.41/bbl.
Spot iron ore fell US$1.60 to US$136.40/t.
Which makes the SPI Overnight somewhat remarkable. Wall Street may have been strong but gold’s down, copper’s down and iron ore’s down yet it’s not every day you see a 50 point rise, or 1.0%, in the SPI Overnight.
It’s going to be a thin day’s trade on the Australian bourse today. It’s school holidays, and markets are shut tomorrow. There will be many turning a Thursday holiday into a four-day long weekend, and many bailing out after lunch this afternoon. On low volume, the index could indeed post further solid gains.
BC Iron ((BCI)) will provide a quarterly production report today. The March quarter CPI will be released and could well add to the volatility if much different to the 0.6% (qoq) and 2.7% (yoy) headline numbers expected.
Tonight will see the important German IFO business sentiment survey and US durable goods orders.
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