FYI | May 03 2013
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena
I joined Twitter. Not because I am curious what this celebrity has to say about her kids, or to read that another one is waiting for a connecting flight, impatiently. Twitter allows me to follow news and commentary sources such as Dow Jones' Marketwatch, Bloomberg News and the Wall Street Journal. It assists me in keeping up with what is happening across the globe, while I am observing and analysing financial markets myself.
While I am on Twitter, reading a quote here and a news flash there, I offer my own succinct insights and commentary. Those amongst you who have already discovered the virtues of a Twitter account can add my Tweets to their daily news via @filapek.
For those who have no intention to join Twitter, but would like to stay up to date, below are my Tweets from the week past:
– Had to happen… eventually… UBS has cut Telstra (#TLS) to Sell on valuation grounds. Target $4, "operating fundamentals remain robust"
– NAB economists expecting a softer Oz #Retail Trade result for March, due 6 May. Based upon analysis of NAB's online retail sales survey
– Interesting debate about Oz #Banks: do we accept their ongoing attraction on international comparison or reject "this time is different"?
– Danske Bank: still expect #China to be in moderate recovery in coming quarters but it looks more fragile and weaker than previously expected
– Since 2010 the #xjo has fallen each & every May with the average decline -5.82% #SellinMayandgoaway #ausbiz
– ANZ concludes the obvious: it remains a fragile recovery in #China. New leaders are likely focusing more on structural issues inside economy
– From the number cruncher's desk: Westpac (#WBC) to overtake BHP Billiton (#BHP) today as 2nd largest listing on ASX #equities
– BA-ML optimistic on prospects for #mining stocks on recovering #China, thus raises year-end ASX200 index target to 5400 #equities 2/2
– BA-ML's mea culpa: The amount investors are willing to pay for low-growth yield stocks, particularly #banks, has surprised us #equities 1/2
– Goldmans has updated views + projections for next decade of Super Cycle. Does NOT see re-rating for beaten down PEs anytime soon #resources
– Citi hasn't necessarily given up on all #gold equities, price forecasts lowered nevertheless, to US$1,555/oz in 2013 and US$1,435/oz in 2014
– Experience of 2007 has taught us all: narrow group of rising stocks pushing the index is never a show of inner strength #equities
– Observation: never seen this many sectors in the red, and so few in the green, while Oz equity indices are reaching for new 2013 highs
– Market observation: stockbroking analysts remain highly skeptical about prospects special divs at BHP Billiton (#BHP) despite asset sales
– Macquarie observes: resources still receiving downgrades to profit estimates, rest of Oz market pretty stable. FY13 estims might materialise
– UBS now forecasts average #gold price US$1600/oz this year and US$1625/oz next. #Silver cut to US$29/oz from $32.30/oz for 2013
– Uh Oh! CS analysts believe further oil onshore asset write-downs are likely for BHP Billiton (#BHP) as oil turns into new problem child
– Deutsche Bank turns into #USD bull coming years. May transform crude #oil markets, pushing Brent towards US$85/bbl, triggering OPEC response
– Yet another downgrade to #commodities prices forecasts. Macquarie cuts met #coal, #zinc and #copper. Cu US$6,550/t 2014, US$6,800/t 2015
– UBS suggests Recall demerger is near at Brambles (#BXB). This suggests a re-rating could be next #equities
– Uh-Oh… 8th year in succession Suncorp (#SUN) will exceed insurance provisions, notes Citi, suggesting need for materially increase in FY14
– Concludes Citi: Unless there are significant asset sales, #BHP and #RIO will not be in a position to increase shareholder returns until 2H14
– Dennis Gartman stands in awe while watching #equities continuing their rise. Where else can money go? The trend is clear. Don't fight it
– Dennis Gartman sees #gold's bounce simply as that: a bounce. Recent lows may well hold but they're poised to be put to a test again #invest
– #Commodities markets on Friday resemble a sea of red. Even spot #ironore in #China (Fe62%) closed down US50c at US$134.10/tonne
– JP Morgan economists (already below consensus) say risks to global #growth are now to the downside. No Armageddon on the horizon, though
You can add my regular Tweets on Twitter via @filapek
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