article 3 months old

China Seeking Copper

Commodities | May 09 2013

By Jonathan Barratt
 
Our bullish bias seems to be holding up well as we have rallied over 7% in the last few sessions. As such we can conclude that US3.00 lb is an important level that needs to be respected. The main reasons for the renewed interest in the metal are the market's reaction to prices approaching the cost of production, a draw in LME stocks for the first time in many months and anticipation this week's Chinese data will, like the US, show an encouraging picture of an economy recovering. As China consumes 40% of the total supply we have to remain focused on the state of the economy.  A key indicator to the futures price action for the metals is to be found in the inventory levels. As we talked about last week, the copper premiums in Shanghai have steepened to US$40 which has helped provide a clue that at current levels China is interested in the metal again. The premium hints that inventories are being sought after, as indicated by drawdowns in Shanghai and London warehouses. 

Keep a close eye on the Chinese data out this week; yesterday we had trade data indicating a strong surplus and implying a lift in copper imports. Today we have CPI and PPI.  A CPI read of 2.3% suggests the existence of price pressures to the topside and reveals an economy on the move. These numbers we feel could be the catalyst for another leg higher. As mentioned we have forecast a push for the metal towards the highs late Q2 or early Q3, this price action could just be a precursor.

Whilst US3.00 holds our bias towards the metal is to trade higher.

Chart Point – Copper

Technically, we have a new range. US3.05 to the downside and as to the topside, hard to tell however US380 is not out of the question. Last week's divergence provided the clue for the long position.


 
Reprinted with permission of the publisher. Content included in this article is not by association necessarily the view of FNArena (see our disclaimer).
 
Edited by Jonathan Barratt, Barratt's Bulletin is a weekly subscription newsletter that provides expert analysis of commodity markets, global indices and foreign exchange movements. Click here to take a no obligation 21-day trial to Barratt's or to learn more visit www.barrattsbulletin.com. Content included in this article is not by association necessarily the view of FNArena (see our disclaimer).

This report is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to buy or sell, or as a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, products, securities or investments. This report does not, and should not be construed as acting to, sponsor, advocate, endorse or promote products or any other products, securities or investments. This report does not purport to make any recommendations or provide any investment or other advice with respect to the purchase, sale or other disposition of products, securities or investments, including, without limitation, any advice to the effect that any related transaction is appropriate for any investment objective or financial situation of a prospective investor. A decision to invest in securities or investments should not be made in reliance on any of the statements in this report. Before making any investment decision, prospective investors should seek advice from their financial advisers, take into account their individual financial needs and circumstances and carefully consider the risks associated with such investment decision.

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)" – Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided.

Share on FacebookTweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedIn

Click to view our Glossary of Financial Terms