FYI | May 17 2013
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena
I joined Twitter. Not because I am curious what this celebrity has to say about her kids, or to read that another one is waiting for a connecting flight, impatiently. Twitter allows me to follow news and commentary sources such as Dow Jones' Marketwatch, Bloomberg News and the Wall Street Journal. It assists me in keeping up with what is happening across the globe, while I am observing and analysing financial markets myself.
While I am on Twitter, reading a quote here and a news flash there, I offer my own succinct insights and commentary. Those amongst you who have already discovered the virtues of a Twitter account can add my Tweets to their daily news via @filapek.
For those who have no intention to join Twitter, but would like to stay up to date, below are my Tweets from the week past:
– RBS Morgans picked 10 growth stocks to own on 5-yr horizon: SHL, AMP, NXT, CRZ, OSH, WOR, DMP, ALQ, AMC and CTD #equities
– CIMB says #commodities markets too bearish as current spot prices make half of metals production uneconomic. Likes #oil, #copper and #PGMs
– Times have changed, says BA-ML, with greatest risk from end to QE now in bond markets and less so in #equities. Remains bullish
– Concludes Citi: global #equities still look cheap compared with bonds and cash, they no longer look cheap compared with their own history
– Market observation: it appears #EURUSD is carving out standard Head-and-Shoulders formation on price charts. Tectonic plates shifting?
– My View: #resources sector is transitioning… and Big Diversifieds are turning into… Banks! http://bit.ly/102iu0z
– Macquarie's Counter Consensus Calls: Underweight on #AMP, Cochlear (#COH) and Westfield (#WDC), Outperform on Arrium (#ARI) and Dulux (#DLX)
– Citi strategists see continued gains for US #equities, but find “Great Rotation” argument still premature. 2014 maybe? #investment
– Market observation: US manufacturing+growth disappointing with ST outlook weak, but US #equities definitely on a different planet right now
– US #equities and USD continue synchronised rally. #Commodities down overnight, crude #oil exception. Spot #ironore down US$1.70 to USD128.10
– The stock bull is the mirror image of the gold bear. Neither can be properly understood without reference to the other.
– Chartist Daniel Goulding (bearish) predicts Oz #equities will rise to new high, short term, but will correct later. Year-end target 4600
– Will #China's temporary cuts in #aluminum capacity solve the industry glut? CRU doesn't think so http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-aluminum-capacity-cuts-wont-solve-glut-cru-2013-05-14 …
– Morgan Stanley says #commodities prices have peaked. Already 24% below peak levels, further downside expected as supply increases
– Morgan Stanley reiterates ASX200 year-end target 5500, advises to be selective in yield stocks and in resources, seek international exposure
– BCA Research.The bond market is selling off again on the most recent round of the Fed’s QE exit strategy speculation. http://blog.bcaresearch.com/the-trouble-with-a-data-dependent-fed …
– Concludes Citi: For the first time in 10 years, the Federal Budget will mean Oz households are worse off, not positive for #retailers, thus
– More cuts to #China GDP growth forecasts: BA-ML moves to annual GDP growth estimates of 7.6% and 7.6% in 2013-2014 from 8.0% and 7.7%
– Says Macquarie: the #yield trade is crowded, we would rather own cheap cyclical Tech stocks over a Telecom for its defensive #dividend yield
– JP Morgan predicts Insurance Australia #IAG and Amcor #AMC likely to be included in ASX20 at the next index update, #APA and $TTS in ASX50
– Word play of the day: Born to Run… Deficits! JP Morgan economists comment on Labour Government budget. Smart combo Swan and teenage hero
– #Equities and #Commodities on diverging paths this week: base metals all lower overnight, and #gold, spot #ironore down US$1.30 to US$128.10
– Question pondered by Goldmans: market supported by belief downside risks to #equities are limited. What is going to derail the strength?
– Deutsche Bank latest to revise #gold price forecasts: US$1,533/oz (-6%) in 2013, US$1,500/oz in 2014 (-17%) and US$1,450/oz in 2015 (-25%).
– On UBS' calculations, Western Areas (#WSA) EPS could be boosted by 159% on weaker AUD. Alumina potential 138%, Perilya 125%, Grange 76%
– Latest set of #China data has triggered further growth cut at JP Morgan. Now predicts 7.6% GDP growth for 2013. No 8% qrt expected this year
– Contrary to my usual schedule I will be on Sky Business today at 11.40 and again on Lunch Money (12-12.45) – broker ratings and market views
– General review #gold outlook triggers more cuts at Deutsche Bank: to average US$1,637 2013, US$1,810 2014, US$1,930 2015. Trend still up
– BA-ML reports most #equities funds inflows now via ETFs. Plus net funds outflows #commodities for 13 straight weeks. #Energy stocks inflows
– Remarkable: international and US funds flows into equities in deceleration. Investors growing wary record highs and seasonal pattern?
– Early days but the process has started… US Fed considering winding back unprecedented stimulus/support to low interest rates, risk assets
– Next phase Commodities Super Cycle will turn well-managed juggernauts into cash cows; #RIO, #BHP to turn into banks? Sort of, yes #dividends
You can add my regular Tweets on Twitter via @filapek
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