FYI | Jun 28 2013
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena
I joined Twitter. Not because I am curious what this celebrity has to say about her kids, or to read that another one is waiting for a connecting flight, impatiently. Twitter allows me to follow news and commentary sources such as Dow Jones' Marketwatch, Bloomberg News and the Wall Street Journal. It assists me in keeping up with what is happening across the globe, while I am observing and analysing financial markets myself.
While I am on Twitter, reading a quote here and a news flash there, I offer my own succinct insights and commentary. Those amongst you who have already discovered the virtues of a Twitter account can add my Tweets to their daily news via @filapek.
For those who have no intention to join Twitter, but would like to stay up to date, below are my Tweets from the week past:
– Not something #gold bugs want to read but Citi research has revealed that 90% of all gold miners across the globe are currently losing cash
– BA-ML: Great Rotation theme continues to argue normalization of growth, rates and policy will ultimately prove to be positive for #equities
– Citi predicts #copper to trough at lower price level in Q3, meaning copper producer equities have not yet seen their lows #commodities
– Bill Gros: The Tipping Point http://www.pimco.com/EN/Insights/Pages/The-Tipping-Point.aspx#.UcvWlwc6JoU.twitter …
– #BHP shares destined for $25? I prefer the 4% dividend support approach http://bit.ly/1co4HXG
– CIMB forecasts #gold to average US$1,280/oz in 2H13, before moving to a range of US$1,150-1,200/oz over the following two years
– Citi estimated most of global #gold cost curve is burning cash at spot levels. Further cuts needed in the coming 12 mts to make ends meet
– #China's $SSEC has fallen for 6-consecutive sessions and declined 15 of the last 17. RSI at levels not seen since 2001 #oversold #ausbiz
– I hear of people paying $60-100 (and more) to go to the theatre. All others can simply watch Canberra. Live theatre daily, cannot get better
– JP Morgan economists put it succinctly: Is 2% GDP growth really too much to ask for? (It appears the answer is 'yes' in the case of US)
– Credit Suisse: sluggish dynamics #commodities in H2; #ironore, #copper under pressure, #nickel, thermal coal, aluminum to stabilise 2/2
– Credit Suisse calls it the Return of Fundamentals for #commodities with diverging supply dynamics responsible for price outlooks 1/2
– Observe how spot #ironore is unable to show sustained oomph post #China holidays. Last night price fell by US20c to US$113.80/tonne
– BA-ML strategists report their system has triggered Buy signal for #equities. 43 out of 45 markets “oversold". Last Buy signal in Dec 2012
– Most of this week's losses being made up at lunch. All Ords +1.76%. The local market is now down just 0.18% this week. ^SD
– Market observation: CS reduces commodity prices forecasts which leads to cuts in profit estimates. But DPS estimates for RIO, BHP unchanged
– Ouch! Slower growth in #China is coming at precisely the wrong time for many emerging economies and nearly all commodity producers, says UBS
– Macquarie summarises #equities investors' dilemma: balancing betwn near term earnings growth risks and FY14 earnings support frm weaker AUD
– Citi reports global earnings forecasts have turned negative. Only 2 sectors positive: tech and health care. Rising bond yields to blame
– I'd almost forgotten about it, but this week's #equities rout has brought out the margin calls again (of course!) http://goo.gl/Q909Q
– ANZ Bank: expect the official #China PMI to decline sharply to 49.9 in June, as market sentiment deteriorated sharply in the month #metals
– ANZ Bank: estimate the current liquidity squeeze in #China’s money market will last past mid-July, assuming PBoC refuses to budge
– Too Many Bearish Flags To Ignore http://seekingalpha.com/a/wk4g $FXI $SPY
– CBA: acknowledge emerging downside risks to above-consensus forecasts #China GDP growth 8.1%-8.2% 2013-14 if liquidity squeeze continues
– Interesting. Charlie Aitken says #BHP is $25 stock. 4% dividend yield support is around current levels. Investors to price in worst case?
– CIMB: Indian #ironore now only 2% of supply into #China. Peaked at 20% in 2010. Replaced by Iran, Ukraine, Mexico, Sierra Leone #commodities
– Citi: 2020 copper consumption #China could be up to 20-35% lower than consensus expectations while steel has up to 30-55% potential downside
– Citi does not see crash Oz house prices on horizon. House price inflation to peak at 3% by March 2014, prices could fall slightly thereafter
– UBS believes foundations are likely being laid in Oz for better CY14 rather than slide into outright contraction. Even resources good value
– DBS too believes Fed too optimistic on US econ progress. Thinks unemployment will improve more slowly than the Fed does. So what to do?
– Nothing to fear but fear itself? Global rout continues with more falls for #equities. Oil up, metals down. #ironore down US$2 to US$116.60/t
– Sad but true. It wasn't that long ago, Matrix's (#MCE) share price surged to $9. It is below 80c and estimates falling post profit warning
– Macquarie: Bernanke's timetable is too ambitious. QE will continue for longer than he expects, giving some support to bullion prices #gold
– The new trend in global asset strategies: turning positive on prospects for UK #equities
– Citi global strategists continue to see firm gains for global equities ahead. Neutral fixed income and underweight commodities short term
You can add my regular Tweets on Twitter via @filapek
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