FYI | Dec 02 2013
The weekly closed last week on a downtrend for a second week. The market failed to regain 5400 and the weekly stop at 5387 held strong despite a number of tests. The November monthly prediction was spot on with a new downtrend after 4 months of solid gains from the June low at 4600. Downtrends can be seen on all three timeframes. We continue to expect weakness and the weekly chart shows less congestion and increased volatility should be seen this week after last weeks flat trade. The weekly downside target continues to fall with a break of 5300 expected. We continue to expect new short term lows to be set on the way to our weekly target at 5246 – down from 5254
The daily short term shows a stop for Monday at 5360 with the weekly stop at 5358. The new stop for December is 5300 and a close below here at the end of the month will hold the Long term downtrend. Market now has solid resistance from 5370 – 5412 and any test and break of this level will reverse the downtrends. A move above this level will indicate another short squeeze and a retest of 5465 highs
iQuant indicates short positions with a stop at 5358. The weekly chart shows congestion between 5300 and 5325 and the next move in the market will be a break of this range. iQuant indicates weekly downtrends on 6 of the top 10 ASX stocks. Strength in the banks after recent declines has seen selling in BHP. AUDUSD has found short term support at 0.907 and a bounce to medium term resistance is anticipated. SP500 had a lack lustre week with the 1795 weekly downtrend holding. Refer to website for all reports including whether SP500 has hit a peak.
Bulls have now lost control and are falling in number. Resistance is in the market for the first time since October. The market has failed to breach recent highs and Bulls will be under increased pressure this week. A close above 5358 at the end of the week will regain an uptrend for the Bulls.
Bears have started to test new lows. Last week Bears were able to move stock a peak levels and a capitulation of the Bulls will see an eventual test below 5300. A break of 5246 will break all medium term support and may lead to a rapid sell off. A close below 5358 will hold the downtrend and short positions.
iQUANT FORECAST RANGE 5246 – 5417
PIVOT POINT 5358
Review of prediction from 22nd November 2013 for last week
The weekly closed last week on a downtrend. The market has failed above 5400 and the November monthly resistance continues to hold rallies. Downtrends can be seen on all three timeframes and a peak looks set above 5400. We continue to expect weakness and volumes should increase with end of month activity. The weekly downside target continues to fall with a break of 5300 expected. We continue to expect new short term lows to be set on the way to our target at 5220.
The daily short term shows a stop for Monday at 5417 with the weekly stop at 5387 and monthly stop at 5373. The market has pivoted on the 5380 -5390 range since the start of November and is now key resistance. A move above this level will indicate another short squeeze and a retest of 5465 highs
iQuant indicates short positions with a stop at 5387. The multiple weekly support and resistance lines in the chart above show uncertainty with a downside target for the week at 5254. A break of 5254 will see the market oversold in the medium term. iQuant indicates weekly downtrends on 9 of the top 10 ASX stocks. BHP is just holding onto a weekly uptrend with 38.10 key resistance for the week. AUDUSD looks set for new lows with 0.928 key medium term resistance. Refer to website for all reports including whether SP500 has hit a peak.
Bulls continue to fight off 5300 support and will need to push for a close above 5387. The previous weeks bounce may have exhausted the Bulls after a lack lustre month where upside gains have been limited despite strength in overseas markets. Monthly resistance has halted the bounce which started in October and a turn in the market has started. A close above 5387 at the end of the week will regain an uptrend for the Bulls.
Bears have taken control after just missing out the week before. Sellers are testing for support and the end of week rally last week allowed for sellers to enter new shorts. Bears now have solid resistance 5380 -5420 to hold any rallies. An increase in volume will lead to further falls as we have been anticipating for the last few weeks. A close below 5387 will hold the downtrend and short positions.
iQUANT FORECAST RANGE 5254 – 5466
PIVOT POINT 5387
ACTUAL 5319 – 5390
Weeks high was 3 points above the 5387 pivot and downtrend stop – iQuants weekly outlook from last week was effective. The anticipated decline came late in the week and was less than expected. The market traded a 49 point range for the first three days of the week before a sell down to support on Friday. iQuant Trader’s Notes provided 2 profitable trades for a return of 50 plus points. With a short on Monday closed on Wednesday and an intraday short on Friday closed after 30 minutes of trading.
iQuant now indicates a downtrend for the market on all three time frames. Our medium term target at 5200 looks likely as sellers start to move. The bulls are exhausted and supports are now being tested and broken. Medium term weekly traders are short from 5340 plus and the risk management and stops are working well, The November monthly has also proven precise with an eventual break of 5373 confirming the peak above 5400.
“BHP is just holding onto a weekly uptrend with 38.10 key resistance for the week” – BHP failed at 38.00 below iQuant’s predicted resistance this week before falling to 37.19
AUDUSD broke below 0.91 and we now see short term support at 0.907 for the first time since October. Our targets for the market remain 5200 and a retest of October lows at 5125 probable. The VWAP on the futures for the week was 5359 up from 5345 the previous week. Sellers did well to exit positions at peak levels before the sell off as bids were thin.
Log Into http://www.iquantsystems.com to view real time reports on ASX top 20, international indices, currencies and commodities.
ASX200 report tracks the December ASX200 SPI. The ASX200 index is currently trading at a 14 point discount to the futures. All levels in this report refer to the ASX200 SPI futures.
The information contained in this communication is general information only. Any advice is general advice only. Neither your personal objectives, financial situation or needs have not been taken into consideration. Accordingly you should consider how appropriate the advice (if any) is to those objectives, financial situation and needs, before acting on the advice. Iquant Systems Pty Ltd (CAR No.435627) is a corporate authorised representative of Avestra Capital Pty Ltd (AFSL No. 292464).
Copyright © 2013 Iquant Systems, All rights reserved. Re-published with permission.
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