FYI | Sep 26 2014
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena
I like to question the ruling logic that goads the herd, or at the very least stimulate independent thinking. There's a big difference between playing market momentum as a short term trader and trying to figure out what the best asset purchases are for longer term investing.
Since 2012 I maintain my own feed of quotes, comments, responses and market insights via Twitter. Not everyone is on Twitter, which explains the requests to make my Twitter items also available through the newsfeed on the FNArena website.
Usually I combine all Tweets from the week past in one weekly story. Below are my Tweets from the week past. Enjoy.
Investors can follow me on Twitter via @filapek
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– BA-ML: poor performance Commodities, Emerging Markets, High Yield bonds, Small Caps a harbinger lower liquidity, end excess returns #ausbiz
– Citi data analysis confirms: yield stocks in Australia only slightly more expensive than 20 year average, certainly no bubble talk warranted
– Macquarie research suggests ammonia and urea markets facing over-supply in three years ahead. Any excitement to wear off soon… #ausbiz
– Overnight: Correction mood – #Equities down. #Oil, Gold flat. Base #metals weaker. #ironore down US80c to US$78.60/t. A$ US87.80c #ausbiz
– Deutsche Bank's Asian gaming analyst essentially projects no growth in gross gaming revenues in Macau both this year and next. Hmmm #ausbiz
– Morgan Stanley advises investors should tread carefully with Oz Consumer stocks. Prefers Wesfarmers and Super Retail #ausbiz
– UBS sees its forecast for first RBA hike by mid-2015 "at risk", meaning it could come later #ausbiz
– Stockbroker Morgans sees RBA start hiking from Q2 2015 onwards. Deutsche Bank fiercely disagrees. Economics = NOT exact science #ausbiz
– Macquarie speculates Rio Tinto might now be the first to announce a share buy back in a reversal of fortunes with BHP Billiton #ausbiz
– Macquarie warns: BHP Billiton only has limited room for capital management (on the back of higher dividends, falling IO price) #ausbiz
– Overnight: #equities up. #Oil bounced. #Gold little changed. Base #metals mostly up. #ironore unchanged at US$79.40/t A$ US88.75c #ausbiz
– Foreigners selling raises question: should we also sell banks? Or is this about too much portfolio concentration? http://tiny.cc/f23nmx
– Excessive cash flow will convince investors, says Morgan Stanley. Upgrades Rio Tinto to Overweight, target lifts to $75 #ausbiz
– Macquarie: clear that #China simply cannot grow at 7.5% without constant government stimulus. Expects lowering of GDP target to 7% for 2015
– CS prefers base #metals but finds diverging outlooks with lead, #zinc preferred. #Copper battling too much supply, as is #nickel (surprise!)
– CS finds outlook for bulks –#coal and #ironore – uninspiring. Predicts IO to average US$80/t in H2 2015 as lower price needed to rebalance
– Macquarie analysis highlights deterioration demand for #steel, #copper in #China on back of slow down property and manufacturing #ausbiz
– JP Morgan's Materials vs Financials Timing Model is now equally balanced, still prefers Financials longer term #ausbiz
– Overnight: #equities weaker. #Oil mixed. #Gold stable. Base #metals mixed,mostly up. #ironore down US40c to US$79.40/t A$ US88.40c #Ausbiz
– It's still a bull market for #equities, reminds Dennis Gartman (but internal technical picture really looking ugly right now) #ausbiz
– Yesterday I wrote: I'd be hugely surprised if we don't see a bottoming soon [in #banks share prices], and a recovery next #ausbiz
– BA-ML: already clear it’s almost impossible for #China to achieve 7.5% GDP growth this year. Expect govt target to be cut to 7% for 2015
– Danske Bank: In our view the manufacturing PMI will have to decline to around 48 before there will be any substantial stimulus in #China
– Westpac: HSBC #China PMI suggests inventory build-up amidst weak demand rather than positive turning point in the end-demand cycle #ausbiz
– Oooooops! Says Morgan Stanley. Reduces ALS Ltd (ALQ) to Equal-Weight from Overweight. Cuts target to $6.20 from $8.05 #ausbiz
– Australia is the fourth most expensive country in the world to transfer money, according to the latest data from the World Bank #ausbiz
– WilsonHTM cuts #ironore price estimates. Lowers Atlas Iron to Sell with $0.40 target. Retains Mt Gibson as Buy. LT io forecast now US$90/t
– Overnight: down, down, down. #equities, #Oil down. #Gold stable. Base #metals down. #ironore down US$1.90 to US$79.80/t A$ US88.55c #ausbiz
– AllianceBernstein believes #China's GDP growth remains poised to ease further from 7.3% to 6.8% next year #ausbiz
– Mining services have seen worst is highly flexible concept. See today's profit warning by ALS Ltd (ALQ). Potential for pain remains $ausbiz
– UBS suggests oil price US$100/bbl required long term to encourage further investment. As such, OSH, DLS and HZN considered oversold #ausbiz
– UBS maintains forecast AUD to correct lower to US$0.85 by mid-2015, but admits it can move lower #ausbiz
– Morgan Stanley sums it up nicely; Atlas Iron: doing all the right things in a tough market. Enough said #ausbiz
– Morgan Stanley sees headwinds emerging for QBE in the form of revenue protection for US farmers now that crop prices have fallen #ausbiz
– Macquarie notes:Since 2012 small ordinaries underperformed ASX100 by 43%. Small industrial underperformed large industrial by 22.2% #ausbiz
– Danske Bank argues US makes come-back as global safe haven. With Chinese growth weakening, US is currently sole pillar of strength #ausbiz
– Glushkin Sheff's Dave Rosenberg: view that US dollar would lose reserve currency status now looks like a sick joke #ausbiz
– In case anyone wondered: #ironore spot 62% Fe #China dropped by US$1.30 to US$81.70/tonne on Friday #ausbiz
You can add my regular Tweets on Twitter via @filapek
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