article 3 months old

ANZ Still At Risk

Technicals | Mar 31 2016

Bottom Line 30/03/16

Daily Trend: Down
Weekly Trend: Down
Monthly Trend: Down
Support Levels: $21.86 – 21.54 / $19.95 – $17.63
Resistance Levels: $26.35 / $29.17 / $31.13

Technical Discussion

ANZ is one of Australia's "Big 4" offering a range of banking and financial products to retail, corporate and institutional clients. Whilst ANZ is best known in Australia and New Zealand, it has a significant business in Asia. In July 2014 the company completed the sale of ANZ Trustees Ltd to Equity Trustees Ltd. For the year ending the 30th of September 2015 interest income increased 3% to A$30.53B. Net interest income after loan loss provision increased 5% to A$13.44B. Net income applicable to shareholders increased 3% to A$7.49B.  Broker/Analyst consensus is currently “Sell”.  The company pays a dividend of 7.8%.
 
Reasons to be cautious:
→ ANZ is not the preferred exposure to the sector.
→ Asia slowing could be problematic, especially if U.S rates rise.
→ Ongoing capital management is expected.
→ Trading profits will be adversely affected during any sustained correction.
→ Recent weakness may be overdone short term, but larger degree patterns suggest lower prices will come.
 
“…Our stance for many months now has been that the banks have had their day with further downside probable, albeit any weakness would be within a larger consolidation pattern. This is still our highest expectation…”  We were looking for a bounce following our last review of ANZ which came on the back of Type-A bullish divergence. It did kick into gear almost immediately but like the broader market, the rally didn’t amount to a great deal resulting in our target never coming under serious pressure. The banking sector in general has been weak although ANZ’s announcement recently regarding another $100m in bad debt due to exposure to the resource sector has had a negative impact.
 
The Market appears to believe that the company has underestimated its bad debt again which isn’t a good look. With so much weighting to the XJO the banks have put paid to the recent show of resilience in the broader market bringing the deeper retracement we’ve been looking at to the fore. This evening we are going to move back to the daily chart which shows the potency of the leg down off the April 2015 highs. In fact, it’s been a decline of over 41%; price is also currently in the typical retracement zone of the whole movement higher off the 2009 lows which is even more significant. In this zone we'll normally be looking for a buying opportunity but the problem here is that the decline has been impulsive in nature which is what is ringing the alarm bells in regard to a deeper retracement. Price would now have to get up through the recent pivot high at $29.17 to suggest a low is in position although this definitely isn’t our highest expectation. The risk at the moment is to the downside although short-term it is looking oversold meaning some sort of a relief rally wouldn’t come as a great surprise.
 
Trading Strategy

“…The 5-wave movement down coupled with the bullish divergence does provide a low risk entry if you want some exposure to the Banking Sector. The strategy is to use our SaR indicator as a trigger mechanism which currently sits at $24.02…”  Although price took off with a degree of attitude, triggering our long trade we have had to take defensive action and tighten the initial stop. The end result has been a breakeven trade and although this obviously isn’t what we were looking for there’s simply no point holding on and hoping when the smaller degree patterns take a serious turn for the worst. For the moment we’ll give the banks a wide berth although we may be looking for a shorting opportunity following a lacklustre bounce from here.
 

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