Weekly Reports | Jun 02 2017
For a more comprehensive preview of next week's events, please refer to "The Monday Report", published each Monday morning. For all economic data release dates, ex-div dates and times and other relevant information, please refer to the FNArena Calendar.
By Greg Peel
Wall Street’s response last night to the blow-away “beat” on the ADP private sector jobs numbers for May suggest US markets have now well and truly buried the “good news is bad news” approach that dominated the post-GFC years and led to abject fear of Fed tightening. While ADP and non-farm payrolls rarely show consistent correlation, and similarly positive NPF tonight will lock in market expectations of a Fed rate hike the following week.
Indeed, were the Fed not to raise in such circumstances, Wall Street would not be pleased. Of course a disappointing jobs number tonight could have the opposite effect.
Next week is GDP week in Australia. We’ll see March quarter company profits and inventories numbers on Monday, the current account, including the terms of trade, on Tuesday, and the final GDP result on Wednesday. At this stage consensus is forecasting a result barely in the positive. Contraction would not surprise.
The RBA will meet on Tuesday but it’s difficult to see anything but a reprint of the May statement.
Other local data next week include monthly numbers for the services PMI, alongside Caixin’s Chinese equivalent and results from elsewhere across the globe, the trade balance and housing finance.
It’s a relatively quiet week for US data.
New Zealand will be closed on Monday to prepare for the Lions tests, and the ECB holds a policy meeting on Thursday night as Britain goes to the polls. Theresa May must be feeling a bit like Malcolm Turnbull as the supposed landslide first predicted is replaced by much narrower poll forecasting, but then history suggests British pollsters couldn’t pick a nose.
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