Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Aug 11, 2023

This story features AMP LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AMP

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

AMP   AQZ   ARF   AUB   AVH   BLD (2)   CBA (2)   CU6   CUV   DOW   DXI   EVN   FBU   IMD   IVC   LNW   LTR   MND   NPR   NWH   ORI   QBE (2)   SUN (2)  

AMP    AMP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $1.15

Jarden rates ((AMP)) as Neutral (3) –

AMP's first half result was ahead of expectations yet Jarden warns a sharply lower net interest margin outlook into the second half and a temporary pause in capital returns because of litigation uncertainties could erode the strong start.

Medium-term support comes on the back of a material cost reduction program that aims to remove -16% of group costs by FY25 and if achieved could mean a further 15% upside to the broker's estimates for FY25.

Jarden retains a Neutral rating and raises the target to $1.22 from $1.20.

This report was published on August 10, 2023.

Target price is $1.22 Current Price is $1.15 Difference: $0.07
If AMP meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.17, suggesting downside of -2.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 6.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 8.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.8, implying annual growth of 46.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AQZ    ALLIANCE AVIATION SERVICES LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $3.46

Wilsons rates ((AQZ)) as Overweight (1) –

Alliance Aviation Services has produced an "exceptionally strong" 2H earnings result, according to Wilsons. Normalised profit (PBT) increased by 26% on the previous corresponding period, in line with recent guidance and the broker's forecast.

A substantial uplift in margins was largely due to increased utilisation of the fleet and yield, explains the analyst. More negatively, weak cash conversion was attributed partly to the inventory build of consumables used for aircraft maintenance.

Wilsons increases its target to $3.94 from $3.88  and retains its Overweight rating. No explicit FY24 guidance was provided though the broker expects the margin improvement will be maintained.

This report was published on August 11, 2023.

Target price is $3.94 Current Price is $3.46 Difference: $0.48
If AQZ meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 35.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.77.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 40.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.65.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ARF    ARENA REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $3.82

Jarden rates ((ARF)) as Buy (1) –

Following Arena REIT's FY23 results, Jarden notes above-average growth in distributions and FFO came despite rising interest rates and a slowdown in development activity.

The broker expects the business will be one of the few A-REITs with positive cash earnings growth in FY24 and growth should accelerate from here as the balance sheet is used.

While the shares may not appear cheap, Jarden believes a premium for a proven and disciplined business is justified and retains a Buy rating with a $4.35 target.

This report was published on August 10, 2023.

Target price is $4.35 Current Price is $3.82 Difference: $0.53
If ARF meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 16.80 cents and EPS of 17.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.46.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 17.40 cents and EPS of 18.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.54.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AUB    AUB GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $28.58

Jarden rates ((AUB)) as Overweight (2) –

AUB Group has upgraded FY23 net profit guidance for the fourth time, underpinned, Jarden observes, by robust trading throughout May and June as well as execution on strategic growth initiatives.

The broker finds it unclear whether the upgrade is temporary or will be more sustainable, as the company was hesitant to provide greater detail so close to its results. The company will report its results in August 22.

Overweight rating and $31.85 target maintained.

This report was published on August 10, 2023.

Target price is $31.85 Current Price is $28.58 Difference: $3.27
If AUB meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $32.82, suggesting upside of 16.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 62.00 cents and EPS of 123.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 112.1, implying annual growth of 6.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.2.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 99.00 cents and EPS of 156.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 142.1, implying annual growth of 26.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 81.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AVH    AVITA MEDICAL INC

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $5.47

Wilsons rates ((AVH)) as Market Weight (3) –

Recell revenues for Avita Medical's 2Q were 2% ahead of Wilsons forecast and landed at the top end of guidance.

Bearing in mind Avita received early-June FDA approval for Recell in full thickness defects (soft tissue), the analyst attributes growth for the quarter to growing sales of this product, given no new accounts were added for burns.

Management provided raised FY23 revenue guidance of US$51-53m, up from the US$49-51m provided at FY22 results.

Market Weight rating. Target $4.28.

This report was published on August 11, 2023.

Target price is $4.28 Current Price is $5.47 Difference: minus $1.19 (current price is over target).
If AVH meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.74, suggesting upside of 1.7%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Current consensus EPS estimate is -78.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is -28.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BLD    BORAL LIMITED

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $4.74

Goldman Sachs rates ((BLD)) as Neutral (3) –

FY23 profit for Boral exceeded the forecasts by Goldman Sachs and consensus by 23% and 16%, respectively, while earnings demonstrated strong operating leverage.

Volume growth of 6% was double the broker's estimate and price traction was strong. Moreover, operating cash flows beat the broker's forecast by 13%.

Assuming no shifts in demand or the pricing environment, management expects FY24 earnings (EBIT) of between $270-300m, suggesting to the analyst a continuation of cost discipline and price momentum.

Goldman Sachs raises its FY24-26 earnings forecasts by 8-13% and lifts its target to $4.55 from $4.00. Neutral.

This report was published on August 11, 2023.

Target price is $4.55 Current Price is $4.74 Difference: minus $0.19 (current price is over target).
If BLD meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.32, suggesting downside of -11.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.2, implying annual growth of 22.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.5.

Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((BLD)) as Overweight (2) –

Boral's FY23 result was better than Jarden expected, driven by significant price increases and operational cost savings. The broker was pleased the number of underperforming downstream concrete assets has been reduced.

New guidance for FY24 EBIT of $270-300m is reflecting a more than 20% improvement in operating profit, the broker adds.

The target rises to $4.95 from $4.08, reflecting earnings revisions on average of 4.7% over the forecast period. While volumes are expected to moderate, ongoing pricing benefits and cost reduction should continue to drive margin expansion. Overweight maintained.

This report was published on August 10, 2023.

Target price is $4.95 Current Price is $4.74 Difference: $0.21
If BLD meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.32, suggesting downside of -11.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 16.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 19.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.2, implying annual growth of 22.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.5.

Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CBA    COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Banks – Overnight Price: $104.47

Goldman Sachs rates ((CBA)) as Sell (5) –

Goldman Sachs found CommBank's FY23 release a mixed affair, even though cash earnings from continued operations surprised ever so slightly.

The broker points at a lower tax rate which offset the building of higher provisions. The final dividend proved equally slightly higher than forecast. And then there was an $1bn share buyback.

Forecasts have been slightly lowered, which pulls back the price target to $81.63 from $83.42. Given the macro backdrop remains a challenge, Goldman Sachs has reiterated its Sell rating.

This report was published on August 9, 2023.

Target price is $81.63 Current Price is $104.47 Difference: minus $22.84 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $91.08, suggesting downside of -12.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 450.00 cents and EPS of 548.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 567.2, implying annual growth of -6.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 457.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 450.00 cents and EPS of 5.54 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 1885.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 587.6, implying annual growth of 3.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 469.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((CBA)) as Underweight (4) –

All in all, states Jarden, CommBank delivered FY23 financials that were better-than-feared beforehand, in particular when it comes to margins.

Jarden remains of the view that, while the worst of mortgage competition and margin pressure is now behind for the sector in Australia, margins are still likely to grind lower ahead.

CommBank topped up its provisions, but the broker states there are to date only few signs of mortgage stress overall. But cost growth is shaping up as the major challenge.

Estimates have been lifted by circa 1%. Target price lifts to $98.30 from $97.50. Underweight.

This report was published on August 9, 2023.

Target price is $98.30 Current Price is $104.47 Difference: minus $6.17 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $91.08, suggesting downside of -12.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 450.00 cents and EPS of 561.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 567.2, implying annual growth of -6.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 457.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 452.00 cents and EPS of 569.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 587.6, implying annual growth of 3.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 469.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CU6    CLARITY PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $0.90

Wilsons rates ((CU6)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons retains its Overweight rating and $1.22 target for Clarity Pharmaceuticals after reviewing impressive Cohort 2 data from the Phase1/11a Secure trial.

The responses of the three patients in the trial with a single 8GBq dose of the company's prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA) therapeutic asset have shown material reductions in PSA levels. This is a key surrogate efficacy endpoint, explains the broker.

While Wilsons retains its 2026 date for the Secure top-line data readout, there is growing potential to bring the timeline forward.

This report was published on August 11, 2023.

Target price is $1.22 Current Price is $0.90 Difference: $0.325
If CU6 meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 8.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 10.53.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 10.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 8.77.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CUV    CLINUVEL PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $18.14

Moelis rates ((CUV)) as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) –

The launch for Mitsubishi Tanabe's oral treatment for EPP, dersimelagon, hhas been delayed by at least two years. This is a direct competitor to the Scenesse product from Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals.

As a result Moelis expects a higher peak penetration for Scenesse given the additional two years in the market without competition.

Clinical trials for vitiligo are currently underway and the company expects products will be close to commercialisation by the end of 2025.

The broker's estimates are unchanged yet value is envisaged in the stock and the rating is upgraded to Buy from Hold. Target is raised to $22.10.

This report was published on August 10, 2023.

Target price is $22.10 Current Price is $18.14 Difference: $3.96
If CUV meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 5.70 cents and EPS of 63.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.66.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 5.30 cents and EPS of 57.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.60.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DOW    DOWNER EDI LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers – Overnight Price: $4.10

Goldman Sachs rates ((DOW)) as Neutral (3) –

The FY23 earnings (EBITA) margin of 2.6% for Downer EDI was -14bps softer than Goldman Sachs expected. 

While the broker's conviction on the margin restoration profile is marginally higher after the result, uncertainties remain. The analyst forecasts FY25 margin of around 3.7%.

No FY24 guidance was provided though management noted market conditions are unlikely to worsen and stated the cost-out program is on track.

Goldman Sachs target rises to $4.10 from $3.90 on a valuation roll forward and after allowing for a slightly higher FY23 revenue base. Neutral.

This report was published on August 11, 2023.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $4.10 Difference: $0
If DOW meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.75, suggesting upside of 15.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 37.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.7, implying annual growth of 30.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DXI    DEXUS INDUSTRIA REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $2.73

Moelis rates ((DXI)) as Buy (1) –

FY24 guidance of 17.1c in underlying FFO and the distribution of 16.4c from Dexus Industria REIT are ahead of prior Moelis estimates.

The broker notes Brisbane Technology Park had a relatively strong operating performance in FY23 with leasing executed across 8% of the portfolio and vacancies down to 14.3%, reflective of tailwinds across the Brisbane office market.

Following the sale of two industrial assets, gearing has fallen to 20.4% which puts the company in a position to build out its remaining $240m in industrial developments in Sydney and Perth.

Moelis expects some decline in asset values in the near term but also expects warehouse supply constraints will continue to drive rents higher. Buy rating and $3.24 target maintained.

This report was published on August 10, 2023.

Target price is $3.24 Current Price is $2.73 Difference: $0.51
If DXI meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 16.40 cents and EPS of 17.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.87.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 16.50 cents and EPS of 17.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.42.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EVN    EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $3.74

Jarden rates ((EVN)) as Neutral (3) –

After a site visit, Jarden reviews its position with respect to Evolution Mining's Mungari mine. From an across the business remodelling the broker has identified those assets that are performing and Mungari presents well.

Jarden is particularly keen on the near-mine exploration discovery where, at Kundana, the emergence of Genesis and Exodus accessible to existing development infrastructure presents a "blue sky" opportunity to define new mineralised structures.

Neutral rating maintained as, while exploration is exciting, the broker does not consider the operating intensity a logical fit for the longer term within the company's business and growth aspirations. Target is reduced to $3.17 from $3.21.

This report was published on August 10, 2023.

Target price is $3.17 Current Price is $3.74 Difference: minus $0.57 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.43, suggesting downside of -8.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 10.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.2, implying annual growth of -25.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.5.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 23.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.3, implying annual growth of 114.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.

Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FBU    FLETCHER BUILDING LIMITED

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $5.15

Jarden rates ((FBU)) as Buy (1) –

Fletcher Building is scheduled to report FY23 financials on 16 August. Writedowns continue but there should be no surprises regarding FY23, states Jarden. The broker does suggest FY24 cold be softer than previously indicated.

Jarden has slightly lowered its forecasts for FY24. The expectation is the slowdown in H2 FY23 will have a more material impact in FY24.

Buy rating retained, while the price target falls to NZ$6.40 from NZ$6.70.

This report was published on August 9, 2023.

Current Price is $5.15. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $5.30, suggesting upside of 2.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 36.73 cents and EPS of 39.94 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 52.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.8.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 31.22 cents and EPS of 40.68 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.8, implying annual growth of -13.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IMD    IMDEX LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $1.89

Jarden rates ((IMD)) as Overweight (2) –

Ahead of the FY23 results, Jarden expects the focus will be on the successful integration of the Devico acquisition.

While the weather in the northern hemisphere has largely been favourable for Index, the broker will also look for the impacts of labour tightness, higher consumable costs and a potential downturn from the heatwave conditions in North America and EMEA.

Following transfer of coverage to Jakob Cakarnis and James Wilson the broker steps back its long-term margin assumptions and growth, resulting in reductions of -7.8% to EPS in FY24 and -3.4% for FY25. Overweight retained. Target is reduced to $2.15 from $2.69.

This report was published on August 10, 2023.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $1.89 Difference: $0.265
If IMD meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.57, suggesting upside of 35.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 13.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.7, implying annual growth of 23.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 3.90 cents and EPS of 12.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.8, implying annual growth of 0.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IVC    INVOCARE LIMITED

Consumer Products & Services – Overnight Price: $12.49

Moelis rates ((IVC)) as Hold (3) –

InvoCare has entered a scheme of arrangement with TPG Global at $12.70 a share and the board has unanimously recommended in favour of the scheme.

The first half trading update signalled market volume softened in the second quarter of 2023 and Moelis reduces 2023 EBITDA estimates by -1% while aligning its target to the scheme at $12.70. Hold.

This report was published on August 8, 2023.

Target price is $12.70 Current Price is $12.49 Difference: $0.21
If IVC meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.95, suggesting downside of -4.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 19.60 cents and EPS of 28.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 43.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.8.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 21.40 cents and EPS of 30.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.0, implying annual growth of 8.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LNW    LIGHT & WONDER INC

Overnight Price: $113.00

Jarden rates ((LNW)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden only initiated coverage of Light & Wonder less than two weeks ago with a Buy rating and $130 target. A market update by the company, albeit without providing concrete guidance, has led to the broker lifting its forecasts ahead of the release of FY23 financials.

Light & Wonder also announced it will acquire the 17% minority interests in SciPlay. This, the broker points out, allows the company to acces SciPlay's cash of US$395m, which further optimises its balance sheet.

Operationally, the Q2 report showed better-than-expected operational momentum. Buy rating retained. Price target moves to $136 from $130.

This report was published on August 9, 2023.

Target price is $136.00 Current Price is $113.00 Difference: $23
If LNW meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 129.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 87.39.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 359.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.40.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LTR    LIONTOWN RESOURCES LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $2.74

Goldman Sachs rates ((LTR)) as Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs lowers its target for Liontown Resources to $1.40 from $1.50 on increased forecasts for underground mining costs and lower near-term direct shipping ore (DSO) sales. Slightly lower haulage cost estimates provide a partial offset.

Management now expects to sell 250-300kt of more than 1% Li2O DSO material, down from the prior target of between 850-1,200kt. This will be achieved with additional funding support from the international Export Credit Agencies of up to $300m.

The Neutral rating is unchanged.

This report was published on August 11, 2023.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $2.74 Difference: minus $1.34 (current price is over target).
If LTR meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.91, suggesting upside of 7.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 2740.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 2740.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MND    MONADELPHOUS GROUP LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $13.76

Jarden rates ((MND)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden, heading into the full year results, is growing more positive on the outlook for Monadelphous Group. The company has guided to a -5-10% reduction in revenue, with the weakness largely driven by the timing of new projects in engineering & construction.

The key challenge remains mining industry labour shortages. The broker retains a Neutral rating and raises the target to $12.00 from $11.20.

This report was published on August 10, 2023.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $13.76 Difference: minus $1.76 (current price is over target).
If MND meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $13.84, suggesting upside of 0.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 45.90 cents and EPS of 51.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.0, implying annual growth of 2.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.5.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 56.80 cents and EPS of 64.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 67.7, implying annual growth of 20.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NPR    NEWMARK PROPERTY REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $1.20

Moelis rates ((NPR)) as Buy (1) –

Newmark Property REIT reported FY23 results in line with guidance. FY24 earnings per unit are expected to be 7.6c.

Moelis observes, despite the company's exposure to high-quality income streams, investors appear deterred by the gearing, which increased to 36.6% as of June and is expected to reach 45% in the near term.

There is uncertainty around potential asset sales as well. The broker remains attracted to the stock because of the deep value on offer at current levels although multiple asset sales will likely be required to narrow the discount to NTA meaningfully.

Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $1.58 from $1.60.

This report was published on August 9, 2023.

Target price is $1.58 Current Price is $1.20 Difference: $0.385
If NPR meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 7.60 cents and EPS of 7.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.72.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 7.80 cents and EPS of 7.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.32.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NWH    NRW HOLDINGS LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $2.73

Jarden rates ((NWH)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden notes, since NRW Holdings' guidance update in March, there have been a number of successful tenders across civil and mining segments which should help underwrite the outlook into FY24.

Based on the broker's discussions with investors the focus will be on whether the margin trajectory can continue to improve as inflation pressures ease. Cash conversion and the balance sheet position at the end of the second half are also in focus.

The broker retains an Overweight rating and raises the target to $2.90 from $2.85.

This report was published on August 10, 2023.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.73 Difference: $0.17
If NWH meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.83, suggesting upside of 4.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 15.50 cents and EPS of 24.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.5, implying annual growth of 8.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 15.20 cents and EPS of 27.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.7, implying annual growth of 9.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORI    ORICA LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $15.77

Jarden rates ((ORI)) as Buy (1) –

As Orica has not yet mentioned a turnaround at Kooragang Island ammonia plant in its disclosures, Jarden looks for more clarity at the investor briefing in September.

The company is legally required to complete turnarounds at its ammonia facility every six years with the most recent turnaround being completed in 2017.

A turnaround would require sourcing ammonia from international third parties in order to continue producing ammonium nitrate on Australia's east coast.

As a result, given the absence of public disclosure on a turnaround and any associated costs, the broker envisages slight downside to consensus estimates for first half EBITDA. Buy ratting retained. Target  is reduced to $17.10 from $17.15.

This report was published on August 11, 2023.

Target price is $17.10 Current Price is $15.77 Difference: $1.33
If ORI meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $18.07, suggesting upside of 15.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 39.00 cents and EPS of 77.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 80.4, implying annual growth of 116.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.5.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 46.20 cents and EPS of 90.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 98.6, implying annual growth of 22.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 49.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QBE    QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $15.41

Goldman Sachs rates ((QBE)) as Buy (1) –

The 1H combined operating ratio (COR) of 98.8% for QBE Insurance was in line with the forecast by Goldman Sachs. The COR is the ratio of claims paid and operating expenses to an insurer's total earned premium.

All regions experienced accelerating premium rates during the 2Q, with a group-wide rate increase of 10.5% over the 1Q, notes the analyst.

Rate increases and premium growth are being mostly driven by property with other classes more in line with expectations, notes Goldman Sachs.

FY23 guidance was maintained for a COR of 94.5% and gross written premium (GWP) growth of 10%.

While the interim dividend was 14cps compared to the consensus expectation for 23.6cps, the broker expects the dividend will "true-up" in the 2H to within the targeted payout range.

The Buy rating and $17.98 target are unchanged.

This report was published on August 11, 2023.

Target price is $17.98 Current Price is $15.41 Difference: $2.57
If QBE meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $16.93, suggesting upside of 6.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 67.11 cents and EPS of 144.67 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 138.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 98.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.4.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 89.49 cents and EPS of 181.95 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 176.7, implying annual growth of 27.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 118.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((QBE)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden found the first half results from QBE Insurance "messy" with a higher one-off tax rate undermining the more predictable earnings delivery. Accounting changes also added confusion.

The first half adjusted cash net profit was -18% below the broker's estimates, reflecting this significantly higher tax rate.

As the business has retained its 2023 guidance for 10% gross written premium growth and a 95.5% combined operating ratio, the broker's estimates for pre-tax profit are unchanged. Buy rating and $20 target maintained.

This report was published on August 10, 2023.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $15.41 Difference: $4.59
If QBE meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $16.93, suggesting upside of 6.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 104.40 cents and EPS of 140.05 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 138.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 98.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.4.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 140.19 cents and EPS of 185.83 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 176.7, implying annual growth of 27.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 118.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SUN    SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $13.73

Goldman Sachs rates ((SUN)) as Buy (1) –

On Goldman Sachs' assessment, Suncorp Group's FY23 performance met consensus expectations but slightly beat its own forecasts. At the headline level, the bank operations "missed" on softer margins.

The declared dividend, however, fell short of expectations while the underlying insurance margins slightly disappointed. All in all, the broker suggests Suncorp is building gross insurance margin resilience inside the 10%-12% range.

Target lifts to $15.13 from $14.53. Buy. Dividend estimates have been lowered.

This report was published on August 10, 2023.

Target price is $15.13 Current Price is $13.73 Difference: $1.4
If SUN meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $15.23, suggesting upside of 11.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 76.00 cents and EPS of 104.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 107.2, implying annual growth of 17.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 74.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 81.00 cents and EPS of 112.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 111.7, implying annual growth of 4.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 85.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((SUN)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden lauds the fact Suncorp Group managed to report solid margin expansion for the general insurance operations, despite persistent claims inflation in FY23.

Guidance for FY24 suggests a static outlook, but Jarden remains confident there's upside potential for the insurance margins. As such, the broker is now increasingly confident the margin will surprise when FY24 financials are released.

Irrespective of what happens with the bank business, Jarden sees value either way and thus retains a Buy rating. Target $14.95 (unchanged).

This report was published on August 9, 2023.

Target price is $14.95 Current Price is $13.73 Difference: $1.22
If SUN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $15.23, suggesting upside of 11.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 70.00 cents and EPS of 109.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 107.2, implying annual growth of 17.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 74.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 121.00 cents and EPS of 105.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 111.7, implying annual growth of 4.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 85.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide experienced, intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.

This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.

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