AVITA MEDICAL INC (AVH)
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20/10/2025

5

Speculative Sell

$1.20

6.19%

In a preliminary update of 3Q25, Avita Medical reported revenue of US$17m, down -12% y/y and -8% q/q, and below consensus of US$20m.

Bell Potter highlights the revenue until 3Q of US$54m compares with the low end of guidance of US$76m, making a downgrade likely (3Q25 result and investor call is on November 7).

The company again missed its Orbimed revenue covenant by US$600K, requiring another waiver, and also announced exit of CEO Jim Corbett, making Chairman Cory Vance the interim CEO.

The broker reckons a major cost rationalisation and potential consolidation are likely, given the -US$10m/quarter cash burn and stagnant growth. The company may also be a target for consolidation well below its underlying value, in the broker's view.

Speculative Sell maintained. Target cut to $1.20 from $1.50. 

FORECAST
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -206.17 cents.
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -117.56 cents.

14/11/2025

3

Upgrade to Hold from Sell

$1.25

10.62%

Canaccord Genuity upgrades Avita Medical to Hold from Sell, noting the business was affected by a change in reimbursement mechanics and the situation is now largely resolved.

The broker would still expect the balance sheet to be firmed up before becoming more constructive on the stock. The company has confirmed US$17.1m in commercial revenue for the third quarter, down -13% on the prior corresponding period.

FY25 revenue guidance range is revised down to US$70-74m. Target is steady at $1.25.

FORECAST
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -46.71 cents.
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -21.80 cents.