AVITA MEDICAL INC (AVH)
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11/08/2025

1

Speculative Buy

$2.00

73.16%

Morgans has repeated its assessment from Friday: Avita Medical's 2Q25 report represents a significant miss versus expectations.

Morgans points out there was no sales growth on the quarter as delays and complications continue to secure reimbursement from the regional Medicare contractors.

Management has been forced to make large downgrades to guidance, and pushed guidance around profitability to the middle of next year.

The broker finds solace in the fact management has successfully rolled through cost-base reductions, as planned, decreasing the net loss with more to come in 3Q.

Alas, Morgans now also believes another capital raising will be necessary to successfully lead this company to profitability.

Reduced forecasts have pulled back the price target to $2 from $3.76 prior. Speculative Buy rating retained with the comment that both balance sheet and execution risks have increased.

FORECAST
Morgans forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -40.63 cents.
Morgans forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -18.21 cents.

28/10/2025

5

Sell

$1.25

8.23%

Canaccord Genuity was disappointed by Avita Medical’s third quarter update involving another revenue miss and a leadership change.

Sales of around US$17m were -9% below the analysts' forecast due to continued reimbursement disruptions following changes in US payment codes.

Missed revenue covenants may again test lender tolerance, suggests the broker, while recent field sales restructuring may have weakened surgeon engagement.

Canaccord's FY25 revenue forecast is cut by -5% to US$72m, with further capital raisings likely required to strengthen the balance sheet. The Sell rating and $1.25 target price are maintained.

NB: Before re-engaging with the stock, the broker would like to see adequate capital raised to repay debt and a revitalisation of the sales and service structure. A re-focused effort on generating new clinical evidence to support Recell's growth outlook is also needed.

FORECAST
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -45.14 cents.
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -21.79 cents.