AVITA MEDICAL INC (AVH)
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20/10/2025

5

Speculative Sell

$1.20

3.45%

In a preliminary update of 3Q25, Avita Medical reported revenue of US$17m, down -12% y/y and -8% q/q, and below consensus of US$20m.

Bell Potter highlights the revenue until 3Q of US$54m compares with the low end of guidance of US$76m, making a downgrade likely (3Q25 result and investor call is on November 7).

The company again missed its Orbimed revenue covenant by US$600K, requiring another waiver, and also announced exit of CEO Jim Corbett, making Chairman Cory Vance the interim CEO.

The broker reckons a major cost rationalisation and potential consolidation are likely, given the -US$10m/quarter cash burn and stagnant growth. The company may also be a target for consolidation well below its underlying value, in the broker's view.

Speculative Sell maintained. Target cut to $1.20 from $1.50. 

FORECAST
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -206.17 cents.
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -117.56 cents.

28/10/2025

5

Sell

$1.25

7.76%

Canaccord Genuity was disappointed by Avita Medical’s third quarter update involving another revenue miss and a leadership change.

Sales of around US$17m were -9% below the analysts' forecast due to continued reimbursement disruptions following changes in US payment codes.

Missed revenue covenants may again test lender tolerance, suggests the broker, while recent field sales restructuring may have weakened surgeon engagement.

Canaccord's FY25 revenue forecast is cut by -5% to US$72m, with further capital raisings likely required to strengthen the balance sheet. The Sell rating and $1.25 target price are maintained.

NB: Before re-engaging with the stock, the broker would like to see adequate capital raised to repay debt and a revitalisation of the sales and service structure. A re-focused effort on generating new clinical evidence to support Recell's growth outlook is also needed.

FORECAST
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -45.16 cents.
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -21.80 cents.