QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED (QBE)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

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17/08/2026

3

Neutral

$24.20

9.75%

Citi retains a Neutral rating for QBE Insurance and lowers its target to $24.20 from $27.20 following interim result after removing the previous 10% premium to its valuation.

The broker expects some first-half factors will need to reverse for QBE to achieve FY26 combined operating ratio (COR) guidance, though Citi continues to forecast a slightly better outcome than guidance.

First take:

On first observations, QBE Insurance Group's 1H26 result was broadly in line with Citi's expectations, with a 92.8% combined operating ratio and insurance margin of 12.6%, although underwriting profit fell short of consensus.

Gross written premium growth of 9.5% was stronger than expected, led by 11% ex-rate growth in International, while capital remains strong.

The ex-cat claims and expense ratios were higher than expected, but the analyst accepts management's view these should improve in 2H26, supporting a stronger second-half skew.

The broker considers QBE on track to deliver FY26 guidance, supported by solid premium growth, margins and investment earnings. The interim DPS of 32c was in line and most likely represents the 1H:2H dividend skew. The capital position remains robust.

The stock could trade flat to down, Citi suggests, depending on how the market interprets the result.

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18/08/2026

4

Downgrade to Underweight from Neutral

$20.30

-7.94%

Jarden downgrades to an Underweight rating for QBE Insurance with its target price decreased to $20.30 from $21.30 amid concerns regarding earnings sustainability and underlying margin pressures.

The 1H26 reported combined operating ratio of 92.8% masked an underlying ratio of 94.6%, leaving the bridge to achieving unchanged FY26 guidance of 92.5% reliant on benign catastrophe activity, substantial cost reductions, reserve releases, and avoiding further Middle East losses.

Investors face growing divergence between premium rates and claims inflation against a backdrop of record industry capital.

While management points to portfolio optimisation, the analyst views this strategy as increasingly challenging to execute as competing insurers similarly reallocate capital towards casualty and specialty product lines.

The broker's estimates reflect execution risks surrounding underwriting margins despite the insurer delivering strong performance across recent periods.