Technicals | Oct 23 2024
Earlier today, Tony Sycamore, Market Analyst, IG updated his views and thoughts on financial markets, including the technical analysis updates below.
All material has been re-published with permission and does not by association represent FNArena’s views (we have none, we simply report).
First Up, Nasdaq100
Provided the Nasdaq100 remains above short-term support at 20,000 and a more important layer of support at 19,600/500, we look for the rally to test and break the mid-July 20,690 high before a push towards 21,500.
Aware that if the Nasdaq100 were to see a sustained break of support at 20,000 and then at 19,600/500, it would warn that a deeper decline is underway towards initial support at 18655 coming from the 200-day moving average.
Below that, we have the September 18,400 low and then uptrend support at 18,100 coming from the December 2022, 10671 low.
Australia: ASX200
This week, the ASX200 resumed its battle with multi-week trend channel resistance, which currently resides in the 8325/30 area.
A sustained break and close above here would set the ASX200 up for a run towards 8450 into year-end.
Conversely, a failure to see a sustained close above 8320/25 combined with a fall through support at 8110/00 would warn that a medium-term high has been struck and that a deeper pullback is underway.
Gold
Gold is trading higher at US$2748/oz (+1.01%), extending its record-breaking run as fears around a long list of uncertainties overpowered another ratchet higher in the USD and Yields.
Gold starts the day within a stone’s throw of trend channel resistance at US$2770/oz.
WTI Crude
WTI Crude Oil is trading higher at US$71.46/bbl (+2.03%), extending its rebound after last week’s heavy falls.
With the market becoming increasingly desensitised to the day-to-day headlines from the Middle East, we think the right price for crude oil is around US$70 as we await something to shift the balance.
The most likely source of this is China’s NPC Standing Committee meeting later this month, expected to flesh out the details and size of the fiscal stimulus package. As well as Israel’s response to Iran’s October 1 missile attack, both presenting upside risks for crude oil.
Provided crude oil remains below the US$71.50/72.50 resistance area (this level continues to fluctuate between key support and resistance) the risks remain to the downside.
Aware that a sustained move above US$71.50/ $72.50 would likely set the platform for further gains towards the 200-day moving average at US$77.20/bbl.
Technical limitations
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