Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Dec 04, 2024

This story features BLUEBET HOLDINGS LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BBT

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely “regularly” depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena’s team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

BBT   BRI   DDR   DJW   FPH   IAG   IPG   MYX   ORA   SHV   SNL   SOM   WHF  

BBT    BLUEBET HOLDINGS LIMITED

Gaming – Overnight Price: $0.28

Taylor Collison rates ((BBT)) as Initiation of coverage with Outperform (2) –

Taylor Collison initiates coverage of BlueBet Holdings with a valuation of 30c and an Outperform rating.

The merger between BlueBet’s technology platform and betr’s customer base is expected to generate margin uplift, with the broker pointing to evidence of improvements as customers migrate.

After 59 days, betr’s customer base is producing approximately 10% net win margins compared to the previous level of around 7%.

The analyst is positive on new management and concurs growth for the company will require “inorganic opportunities,” with a tripling of M&A activity anticipated. BlueBet is expected to be part of the tier-two industry consolidation.

Free cash flow from the exit of the US markets will be redeployed in Australia, the broker explains.

This report was published on November 21, 2024.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.025
If BBT meets the Taylor Collison target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 275.00.

Forecast for FY26:

Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.58.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BRI    BIG RIVER INDUSTRIES LIMITED

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $1.29

Taylor Collison rates ((BRI)) as Initiation of coverage with Hold (3) –

Taylor Collison initiates coverage of Big River Industries with a Hold rating, with the analyst seeking a “stabilisation” in housing approvals before “committing” to the stock.

The broker highlights the acquisitive nature of the company post-IPO, with 15 companies added, contributing $210m in revenue at the time of purchase. The strategy has expanded both its geographic reach and a move into higher-margin panels to temper margin volatility.

Big River is a long-standing distributor of building materials and a major player in timber panels, including veneer, plywood, and framework. Competition from lower-cost imports has driven a shift away from low-value manufacturing to “leveraging” supplier relationships.

This report was published on November 27, 2024.

Current Price is $1.29. Target price not assessed.
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 2.70 cents and EPS of 5.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.43.

Forecast for FY26:

Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 8.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.60.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DDR    DICKER DATA LIMITED

Hardware & Equipment – Overnight Price: $8.60

Wilsons rates ((DDR)) as Initiation of coverage with Overweight (1) –

Wilsons initiates coverage on Dicker Data with an Overweight rating and a $11.29 target price.

The analyst highlights the company is the largest IT distributor in the corporate, commercial, and enterprise market in Australia and the second largest in the consumer, large national retail, corporate, commercial, and enterprise market in NZ.

Wilsons expects the company to return to growth in 2H25 as Windows 10 support ends in October 2025, with approximately 2.4m Australian PCs deemed “too old” to receive the Windows 11 update. The hardware refresh cycle following the “unified” pandemic upgrade event is also seen as a positive.

The analyst believes there is scope for the valuation to move higher over the June and September 2025 quarters.

Overweight rated. Target price $11.29.

This report was published on December 2, 2024.

Target price is $11.29 Current Price is $8.60 Difference: $2.69
If DDR meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.57, suggesting upside of 22.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 45.70 cents and EPS of 44.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.0, implying annual growth of -1.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 49.50 cents and EPS of 51.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 51.4, implying annual growth of 14.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DJW    DJERRIWARRH INVESTMENTS LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $3.22

Taylor Collison rates ((DJW)) as Initiation of coverage with Hold (3) –

Taylor Collison initiates coverage of Djerriwarrh Investments with a Hold rating, explaining the stock is appropriate for investors seeking a diversified ASX-listed portfolio managed by professionals, with dividend income boosted by options.

The manager is part of the AFIC, AMCIL, and Mirrabooka group of listed investment companies, benefiting from economies of scale, including reduced research costs, the broker notes.

With a mandate to generate income, Djerriwarrh has lagged the ASX 200 over the past ten years and is suitable for investors willing to prioritise fully franked income streams and yield in exchange for potentially weaker capital gains in the future.

The company is currently trading at a discount of -6.23% or -0.81 standard deviations below the average, similar to other listed investment companies.

A widening of the discount to NTA might prompt a rating upgrade.

This report was published on November 27, 2024.

Current Price is $3.22. Target price not assessed.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FPH    FISHER & PAYKEL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $34.73

Jarden rates ((FPH)) as Underweight (4) –

Jarden highlights Fisher & Paykel Healthcare reported a “strong” 1H25 result, with revenue up 18% and net profit rising 43% on the previous corresponding period. This met the analyst’s expectations.

The company introduced two new hospital hardware platforms in the US and new consumable products, alongside opening a new manufacturing plant in Guangzhou, China.

As per the broker, gross margins benefited from better overhead efficiencies and improvements in activities, increasing by 141bps to 61.9%.

The analyst makes slight changes to EPS estimates, remaining within FY25 management guidance.

No change to the Underweight rating. Target price rises to NZ$30.10 from NZ$27.50 due to a change in the weighted average cost of capital.

This report was published on November 28, 2024.

Current Price is $34.73. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $23.06, suggesting downside of -33.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 39.03 cents and EPS of 58.96 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 58.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 64.6.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 42.25 cents and EPS of 69.89 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 49.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.7, implying annual growth of 24.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 52.1.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IAG    INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $8.53

Goldman Sachs rates ((IAG)) as Neutral (3) –

Insurance Australia Group is acquiring 90% of the RACQ business for -$855m, with an option to acquire the remaining 10% in two years post completion.

Management expects the transaction will be EPS accretive in the first full year of ownership.

The deal is consistent with management’s through-the-cycle 15% insurance margin and 14-15% return on equity (ROE) target, observes Goldman Sachs.

Neutral retained. Target $7.50.

This report was published on November 29, 2024.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $8.53 Difference: minus $1.03 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $8.26, suggesting downside of -3.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 40.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.0, implying annual growth of 7.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.3.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 32.00 cents and EPS of 43.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.5, implying annual growth of 8.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IPG    IPD GROUP LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers – Overnight Price: $3.99

Taylor Collison rates ((IPG)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Taylor Collison observes 1H25 earnings guidance from IPD Group came in below consensus by -10% due to challenging market conditions and a slowdown in day-to-day markets.

The analyst highlights a deterioration in gross margins as the likely culprit for the downgrade, as the company shifts revenue towards projects from day-to-day activities. The order book has been extended to a three-month run rate from two months.

Following modest growth in FY24, the broker understands why the market reacted poorly to the downgrade but remains optimistic about the company’s prospects due to a growing order book.

Taylor Collison lowers EPS forecasts by -8% and -12% for FY25 and FY26, respectively, and considers the shares cheap at current levels.

Buy rating retained with a $5.15 target price.

This report was published on November 26, 2024.

Target price is $5.15 Current Price is $3.99 Difference: $1.16
If IPG meets the Taylor Collison target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 27.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.51.

Forecast for FY26:

Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 6.30 cents and EPS of 29.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.39.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MYX    MAYNE PHARMA GROUP LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $5.42

Wilsons rates ((MYX)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons transfers analyst coverage on Mayne Pharma, with the target price moving up to $5.95 and the Overweight rating retained.

The broker notes the AGM trading update for the four months to October revealed group revenue was tracking below Wilsons’ forecast by -9% due to a loss of market share to generics by AG-ORACEA.

Dermatology sales came in lower than expected, while women’s health performed better than anticipated. Surprisingly, the margin was higher, rising to 41.9% from 17.6% in the previous corresponding period. Nextstellis was in line with expectations.

Wilsons retains the Overweight rating with a revised target price of $5.93.

This report was published on December 2, 2024.

Target price is $5.95 Current Price is $5.42 Difference: $0.53
If MYX meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 18.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 29.46.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 120.44.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORA    ORORA LIMITED

Paper & Packaging – Overnight Price: $2.43

Jarden rates ((ORA)) as Buy (1) –

Orora has provided qualitative guidance for FY25, retaining a skew toward 2H25 earnings for Global Beverages. Jarden notes risks to the update if costs are not sufficiently managed and volume growth is not “stabilised.”

The broker highlights comments from Global Beverage customers, such as Remy Cointreau, that imply a mixed outlook for Saverglass.

Tequila shows some improvements, albeit from a low base, with October production and exports matching levels last seen in September 2020. However, production remains -21% below the 2023 peak.

No change to the Buy rating and $2.70 target price.

This report was published on December 2, 2024.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.43 Difference: $0.27
If ORA meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.66, suggesting upside of 9.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 9.70 cents and EPS of 14.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.0, implying annual growth of 1.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 11.90 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.6, implying annual growth of 17.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SHV    SELECT HARVESTS LIMITED

Agriculture – Overnight Price: $4.18

Wilsons rates ((SHV)) as Market Weight (3) –

Wilsons notes a strong recovery for Select Harvests over FY24, boosted by normalised crop volumes and higher almond prices.

The balance sheet was strengthened through an equity raising and the receipt of delayed crop proceeds. Ongoing momentum in spot almond prices is also viewed positively by the analyst.

Management offered no financial guidance but noted forecast costs for FY25 are expected to remain the same as FY24. A frost has impacted around -0.5kt of the crop.

Wilsons lowers the FY25 crop volume forecast by -7%, with no changes to almond price assumptions.

Target price slips to $4.46 from $4.57. Market Weight rating unchanged.

This report was published on December 2, 2024.

Target price is $4.46 Current Price is $4.18 Difference: $0.28
If SHV meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.78, suggesting upside of 14.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.1, implying annual growth of 1601.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.8.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 31.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.2, implying annual growth of 38.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SNL    SUPPLY NETWORK LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $32.18

Goldman Sachs rates ((SNL)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs highlights Supply Network’s 1H25 guidance exceeds both its estimates and those of consensus.

Management expects revenue of $170m, up by 17% year-on-year, and net profit of $19.520m, representing a 29% increase excluding a $400,000 property sale gain.

The broker attributes this growth to strong customer engagement and gains in the medium and large fleet market. Management expects revenue growth to moderate to 14% in line with historical levels, supported by branch expansions and a growing parts catalogue.

Goldman Sachs raises FY25-27 profit forecasts by between 2-6%, driven by upgrades to revenue and gross margin expansion. The target price increases to $34.20 from $30.50, and the Buy rating is maintained.

This report was published on November 29, 2024.

Target price is $34.20 Current Price is $32.18 Difference: $2.02
If SNL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 65.00 cents and EPS of 94.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.23.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 77.00 cents and EPS of 110.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.25.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SOM    SOMNOMED LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $0.43

Wilsons rates ((SOM)) as Upgrade to Overweight from Market Weight (1) –

SomnoMed is upgraded to Overweight from Market Weight with a higher target price of 45c by Wilsons.

Management announced an upgrade in FY25 guidance to around $105m in revenue and over $7m in earnings at the AGM, resulting from “de-risking” manufacturing in Manila, which freed up a 30% increase in sustainable capacity.

The analyst explains that this intervention has allowed the company to meet the order backlog and recapture previously lost customers from 2H24.

Wilsons sees the positive flow-on impacts as enabling SomnoMed to consider winding back its promotions and possibly implementing a slight price rise in 2H25.

Overweight rated. Target price: 45c.

This report was published on December 3, 2024.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.43 Difference: $0.02
If SOM meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 107.50.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 86.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WHF    WHITEFIELD INDUSTRIALS LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $5.64

Taylor Collison rates ((WHF)) as Initiation of coverage with Outperform (2) –

Taylor Collison initiates coverage of Whitefield Industrials with an Outperform rating, noting it is suitable for investors seeking a professionally managed stock portfolio with no exposure to resource companies.

The manager has delivered performance exceeding the ASX 200 Industrials over the past ten years, including franking, while maintaining or increasing the dividend during this period.

The broker states Whitefield Industrials is a listed investment company that offers benefits to investors compared to ETFs and unlisted pooled funds, such as capital gains treatments, dividend reinvestment plans, buybacks, and dividend substitution plans.

The broker notes the company is trading at a discount of around -10.15%, which is viewed as favourably priced.

This report was published on November 27, 2024.

Current Price is $5.64. Target price not assessed.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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