Weekly Reports | Dec 06 2024
This story features SOMNOMED LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SOM
Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)
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SOMNOMED LIMITED ((SOM)) Upgrade to Overweight from Market Weight by Wilsons.B/H/S: 0/0/0
SomnoMed is upgraded to Overweight from Market Weight with a higher target price of 45c by Wilsons.
Management announced an upgrade in FY25 guidance to around $105m in revenue and over $7m in earnings at the AGM, resulting from “de-risking” manufacturing in Manila, which freed up a 30% increase in sustainable capacity.
The analyst explains that this intervention has allowed the company to meet the order backlog and recapture previously lost customers from 2H24.
Wilsons sees the positive flow-on impacts as enabling SomnoMed to consider winding back its promotions and possibly implementing a slight price rise in 2H25.
Overweight rated. Target price: 45c.
Downgrade
FISHER & PAYKEL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION LIMITED ((FPH)) Downgrade to Market Weight from Overweight by Wilsons.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Wilsons notes Fisher & Paykel Healthcare’s first-half results included 19% revenue growth year-on-year, with solid performance in Hospital and Homecare segments.
Gross margin reached 61.9%, exceeding guidance, though the broker anticipates softer improvement ahead with potential headwinds in FY26.
NewApps consumables grew 27%, driven by adoption in new settings such as anaesthesia, while Homecare benefited from mask launches and durable resupply demand, explains the analyst.
Wilsons lowers profit forecasts by between -2% to -4% for FY25-FY27, reflecting expectations for slower gross margin development. The rating is downgraded to Market Weight from Overweight, and the target eases to $34.93 from $35.
| Order | Company | New Rating | Old Rating | Broker | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upgrade | |||||
| 1 | SOMNOMED LIMITED | Buy | Neutral | Wilsons | |
| Downgrade | |||||
| 2 | FISHER & PAYKEL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION LIMITED | Neutral | Buy | Wilsons | |
Price Target Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)
| Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Old Target | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AQZ | Alliance Aviation Services | $2.75 | Wilsons | 4.32 | 4.22 | 2.37% |
| BHP | BHP Group | $40.59 | Goldman Sachs | 47.40 | 49.10 | -3.46% |
| BVS | Bravura Solutions | $2.15 | Wilsons | 2.06 | 1.47 | 40.14% |
| CKF | Collins Foods | $8.07 | Jarden | 9.20 | 9.57 | -3.87% |
| CSC | Capstone Copper | $10.37 | Moelis | 14.50 | 14.00 | 3.57% |
| FPH | Fisher & Paykel Healthcare | $33.67 | Wilsons | 34.93 | 35.00 | -0.20% |
| GOR | Gold Road Resources | $2.07 | Goldman Sachs | 2.35 | 2.25 | 4.44% |
| IAG | Insurance Australia Group | $8.64 | Goldman Sachs | 7.50 | 7.20 | 4.17% |
| Jarden | 8.05 | 7.55 | 6.62% | |||
| IPG | IPD Group | $4.12 | Taylor Collison | 5.15 | N/A | – |
| MGH | Maas Group | $4.96 | Wilsons | 6.01 | 5.66 | 6.18% |
| MTS | Metcash | $3.31 | Jarden | 4.10 | 4.40 | -6.82% |
| MYX | Mayne Pharma | $5.16 | Wilsons | 5.95 | 5.93 | 0.34% |
| PME | Pro Medicus | $268.00 | Wilsons | 275.00 | 145.00 | 89.66% |
| PPE | PeopleIN | $0.95 | Wilsons | 1.03 | 0.98 | 5.10% |
| QBE | QBE Insurance | $19.92 | Jarden | 21.80 | 20.90 | 4.31% |
| SHV | Select Harvests | $4.30 | Wilsons | 4.46 | 4.57 | -2.41% |
| SNL | Supply Network | $33.10 | Goldman Sachs | 34.20 | 30.50 | 12.13% |
| SOM | SomnoMed | $0.46 | Wilsons | 0.45 | 0.42 | 7.14% |
| WEB | Web Travel | $4.77 | Jarden | 5.60 | 7.10 | -21.13% |
| Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Old Target | Change | |
More Highlights
AQZ ALLIANCE AVIATION SERVICES LIMITED
Transportation & Logistics Overnight Price: $2.71
Wilsons rates ((AQZ)) as Overweight (1)
Ahead of Alliance Aviation Services completing its fleet expansion by early FY27, analysts at Wilsons have gone through their modeling yet again and the exercise has strengthened their confidence in projected trajectory for cash flows.
As the fleet expansion should result in strong earnings growth, the broker’s investment thesis has been re-confirmed.
Price target lifts to $4.32 from $4.22. Overweight.
This report was published on December 5, 2024.
Target price is $4.32 Current Price is $2.71 Difference: $1.61
If AQZ meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 40.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.77.
Forecast for FY26:
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 6.80 cents and EPS of 44.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.13.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CSC CAPSTONE COPPER CORP.
Copper Overnight Price: $10.51
Moelis rates ((CSC)) as Buy (1)
Moelis highlights Capstone Copper’s recent site tours of Chilean projects including Mantoverde, Mantos Blancos and Santo Domingo, showcasing strong operational progress and organic growth potential.
The Mantoverde sulphide project is now complete, notes the analyst, with commercial production declared and commissioning milestones achieved, supporting robust 2025 guidance of 111kt copper production at $1.83/lb costs (AISC).
The broker notes the Mantos Blancos upgrades, which have resolved prior operational issues, enabling sustainable processing rates. Exploration efforts at Mantoverde and adjacent areas are set to expand reserves, securing long-term production stability.
Moelis raises the target price to $14.50 from $14.00 and retains a Buy rating, citing a positive cash flow trajectory and potential value from the Santo Domingo project.
This report was published on November 29, 2024.
Target price is $14.50 Current Price is $10.51 Difference: $3.99
If CSC meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY24:
Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 26.55 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.59.
Forecast for FY25:
Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 88.39 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.89.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
DDR DICKER DATA LIMITED
Hardware & Equipment Overnight Price: $8.60
Wilsons rates ((DDR)) as Initiation of coverage with Overweight (1)
Wilsons initiates coverage on Dicker Data with an Overweight rating and a $11.29 target price.
The analyst highlights the company is the largest IT distributor in the corporate, commercial, and enterprise market in Australia and the second largest in the consumer, large national retail, corporate, commercial, and enterprise market in NZ.
Wilsons expects the company to return to growth in 2H25 as Windows 10 support ends in October 2025, with approximately 2.4m Australian PCs deemed “too old” to receive the Windows 11 update. The hardware refresh cycle following the “unified” pandemic upgrade event is also seen as a positive.
The analyst believes there is scope for the valuation to move higher over the June and September 2025 quarters.
Overweight rated. Target price $11.29.
This report was published on December 2, 2024.
Target price is $11.29 Current Price is $8.60 Difference: $2.69
If DDR meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.57, suggesting upside of 22.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY24:
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 45.70 cents and EPS of 44.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.46.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.0, implying annual growth of -1.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1.
Forecast for FY25:
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 49.50 cents and EPS of 51.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.76.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 51.4, implying annual growth of 14.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
EGL ENVIRONMENTAL GROUP LIMITED
Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers Overnight Price: $0.27
Moelis rates ((EGL)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1)
Moelis initiates coverage with a Buy rating and 35c target for environmental solutions and industrial services provider, Environmental Group. A “solid” earnings growth profile is supported by strong industry tailwinds and mandated demand in regulated industries,
Recurring revenue now accounts for over 50% of total group revenue, providing more visible earnings certainty, highlight the analysts. Solid growth is set to continue in core operating segments, while commercialising water treatment technology provides potential upside.
An “exciting” option, according to Moelis, is the company’s highly effective, safe, and cheap option to treat per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) contaminated water.
This report was published on November 28, 2024.
Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.27 Difference: $0.078
If EGL meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.13.
Forecast for FY26:
Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.32.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
MGH MAAS GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED
Building Products & Services Overnight Price: $4.95
Wilsons rates ((MGH)) as Overweight (1)
Maas Group’s 1H trading update reconfirmed FY25 underlying earnings (EBITDA) guidance of $215-245m, with a 40/60 1H:2H split due to renewable energy project delays and land sale timing., explains Wilsons.
Management announced three acquisitions in construction materials for -$252m, contributing FY25 pro forma revenue of $174-199m and earnings (EBITDA) of $34-38m.
Synergies from internalising volumes and cost efficiencies are expected to drive medium-to-long-term upside, in the broker’s view.
Wilsons raises FY25 earnings (EBITDA) by 6% and FY26 by 16%, with EPS accretion of 5% from FY26 onwards. The target is increased to $6.01 from $5.66. Overweight rating.
This report was published on November 29, 2024.
Target price is $6.01 Current Price is $4.95 Difference: $1.06
If MGH meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 28.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.62.
Forecast for FY26:
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 12.50 cents and EPS of 39.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.63.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
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For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: FPH - FISHER & PAYKEL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SOM - SOMNOMED LIMITED