Technicals | Apr 09 2025
Earlier today, Tony Sycamore, Market Analyst, IG updated his views and thoughts on financial markets, including the technical analysis updates below.
All material has been re-published with permission and does not by association represent FNArena’s views (we have none, we simply report).
First Up, Nasdaq100
In our Wall Street video update last Monday the 31st of March ( https://youtu.be/utSBJ2AX6rU?si=97A–kQC02GGOMhi ) we said that if the Nasdaq100 were to accelerate below support at 18,800 (basis NDX chart), it would suggest the Nasdaq100 had commenced a Wave iii or Wave c lower from its high on the 25th of March, “which would imply that we are going a lot lower.”
The acceleration to this week’s 16,542 low is viewed as a Wave iii or C. We feel that Wave iii might is close to completion and that a Wave iv bounce should follow towards 18,500.
ASX200
From its mid-February high of 8615, the ASX200 fell -882 points -10.23% to a low of 7733 (Wave I or A from Elliott Wave Analysis) in mid-March, before rebounding to a high of 8014 (Wave ii or B).
The decline from the 8014 high to Monday’s 7169.2 low fell -37 points short of our wave equality target at 7132. The ability to hold the wave equality target suggests that the fall from the 8615 high is a corrective Wave C rather than an impulsive Wave iii lower, implying the entire decline from the 8615 high has been a correction rather than the start of a protracted bear market.
That said a sustained rebound above the 7330/50 resistance zone is needed to increase confidence in this view.
Crude Oil
WTI Crude Oil finished lower overnight at US$59.58 (-1.85%), now down almost -20% from last Wednesday’s high, ahead of this afternoon’s 2 pm AEST deadline for US tariffs on China to rise to 104%.
If these tariffs are implemented and maintained, it will be a hammer blow for the global economy and demand for crude oil.
Technically, while crude oil remains below a zone of weekly resistance at US$65.00/US$67.00-ish, downside risks remain towards US$50.00.
Gold
Gold finished flat overnight at US$2982 (0.01%), as safe haven flows were offset by another ratchet higher in US yields overnight.
We have a preference to buy gold towards trend channel support at US$2820/US$2800.
Technical limitations
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