Weekly Reports | May 06 2025
This story features BOSS ENERGY LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BOE
The company is included in ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS
As President Trump’s hard line position on tariffs eased with uranium exemptions, the U308 spot and mid-term markets responded positively with ASX-listed stocks rallying sharply.
-ASX U308 stocks rally off 52-week lows
-Tariff Relief acts as a catalyst for U308 spot price gains
-Mixed signals from Cameco and Kazatomprom quarterly updates
By Danielle Ecuyer
Boss and Paladin Shares Rally, But… Persistent Short Positions
The exclusion of uranium from the US Administration’s tariff policy via Annex II of President Trump’s executive order exempting select products from baseline and reciprocal tariffs has delivered a jolt of confidence to the uranium market.
Both spot and term prices for U308 surged in response, with momentum building through late April and into early May.
Ord Minnett was one broker to pounce on the extent of short positioning for ASX-listed Boss Energy ((BOE)) and Paladin Energy ((PDN)) on April 29, explaining these stocks were the first and second most shorted on the ASX on April 22.
The analyst queried the sustainability of the positioning post double digit share price moves for both shares, as well as the fundamentally more positive outlook.
Boss announced the smooth ramp up of its Honeymoon project, which was in stark contrast to being the most shorted company on the market. Boss’ share price declined to $2.10 on April 7 from $3.44 on February 6 and has since recovered to $3.58 on May 2.
This company’s March quarter results showed U308 production of 296klbs, slightly below Bell Potter’s expectations, but costs were the standout at $33/lb versus the analyst’s forecast of $40/lb.
Sales came in at 150klbs with an additional 118klbs returned from a loan agreement, sold at an average price of US$84/lb, producing operating cash flow of 3.9m.
Shaw and Partners also highlighted the strong cost performance at Honeymoon. Management reiterated its FY25 production guidance of 850klbs of U308. The company ended the quarter in a robust fiscal position with $229m in cash and liquid assets, and no debt.
FNArena daily monitored brokers have a consensus target price of $3.759 with six Buy-equivalent ratings and one Hold rating.
Short interest in the stock stood at 25.63% on April 28 according to data gathered by ASIC (and available on FNArena’s dedicated section on the website), largely unchanged from a week earlier and up from 23.6% a month previously.
ASIC’s data collection is a voluntary process and our observations from history suggests there can be a delay before some data are updated. In contrast, Ord Minnett has calculated trade volumes since April 28 and estimates the short position in Boss remains at 16%, suggesting right now ASIC data may not reflect actual positioning.
Paladin serves up a pleasant surprise
A one-in-fifty-year event flooding at Langer Heinrich and another delay to the ramp-up of the mine could explain the negative short positioning in Paladin Energy, Ord Minnett noted, but a positive March quarter earnings report turned the table on the reduced earnings outlook for FY25.
The company’s March quarter results were notably better than expected. Canaccord Genuity pointed to robust production of 0.745mlbs, a rise of 17% on the December quarter and exceeding forecasts despite the extreme wet weather.
Operating costs were lower at US$40.6/lb on improved sales volumes.
Bell Potter and Morgan Stanley made similar observations, with the former signalling the 4% improvement in grade as a positive alongside plant operations returning to normal post the April disruptions.
Morgan Stanley detailed twelve offtake contracts with 22.3mlbs contracted out to 2030, as well as the progression of the Fission team integration, as positives. Management has also engaged a consultant to review the historical metallurgical test work at Mt Isa to assess future processing options.
The results boosted the company’s share price performance from a 52-week low on April 23 at $3.93 to $6.22 on May 2, a 58%-plus rally for those participants who were happy to jump in around the lows (or stay the course having suffered first).
Credit where credit is due as a number of brokers which were highlighted in the FNArena Uranium Week piece on April 22, Stock Bulls Dig In (https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/04/22/uranium-week-stock-bulls-dig-in/), detailed investors should not look past oversold stocks across the sector.
The consensus target price for Paladin derived from FNArena’s daily monitored brokers currently stands at $8.407, with seven Buy-equivalent ratings.
According to ASIC data (see also above), short interest stood at 16.40% on April 28, versus 16.93% on April 17 and 16.26% a month earlier.
In contrast, Ord Minnett has calculated trade volumes since April 28 and estimates the short position in Paladin stands at 10%. The analyst believes there is more room to run and further gains for uranium stocks, including Boss and Paladin, as shorters continue to cover positions.
Activity levels in the U308 markets trends higher
Industry consultant TradeTech reported the U308 spot price indicator rising US$3 to US$70/lb last week, coinciding with improved investor sentiment across US and global equity markets.
Tariff uncertainty post Liberation Day on April 2 impacted not only corporate shares but also sentiment surrounding uranium markets generally.
Activity levels had plunged as both buyers and sellers were waiting for more clarity which was offered under Annex II. Subsequently, buyers returned to both the U308 spot and term markets in the latter part of April.
TradeTech’s spot price indicator sat at US$68.50/lb on April 30, up US$4.50/lb from March 31, which represented an average weekly gain of 1.4% over the month.
Tariff paralysis saw the U308 spot price stagnate at US$65/lb between April 11 to April 21, whereupon demand from utilities emerged in the third week.
The consultants noted two transactions on April 30 for August delivery at Orano’s facility in France, priced at US$69.50/lb.
May 1 saw another 100,000lb U308 transaction for Orano delivery again in August at US$70.50/lb with two further transactions, including 100,000lbs for delivery at Cameco in December at US$71/lb and a second at US$72/lb also for December delivery, at Orano.
TradeTech’s U308 Mid-Term price indicator rose to US$72/lb as at April 30 from US$70/lb at March 31. The Long-Term price indicator finished the month of April unchanged at US$80/lb.
As of May 2, TradeTech’s Mid-Term and Long-Term price indicators were unchanged at US$72/lb and US$80/lb, respectively.
In other corporate news
Canaccord Genuity highlighted the deferral of Bannerman Energy‘s ((BMN)) first production at the Etango project by six months to early 2029 as well as management tempering ramp-up assumptions.
The company remains focused on securing offtake agreements while preserving leverage to higher uranium price. The analyst anticipates minimal impact from March flooding in Namibia, while noting the tertiary crusher timeline remains ahead of schedule and there is $38.6m of funds uncommitted as at the end of the March quarter.
Canaccord lowered its target price to $3.74 from $4.98, while retaining a Speculative Buy rating.
The consensus target price from FNArena’s daily monitored brokers is $4.70.
Bannerman is the nineteenth most shorted stock on the ASX in the latest April 28 update at 7.78%. The stock price has rallied from a 52-week low around $1.75 on April 22 to $2.52 currently, a rise of 44%.
Cameco and Kazatomprom, two of the world’s largest uranium producers, released quarterly updates last week, offering a mixed picture of industry momentum heading into the second half of 2024.
Cameco reported second quarter revenue of CA$598m, up from CA$482m a year earlier, with adjusted net earnings of CA$62m and earnings (EBITDA) of CA$337m.
The Canadian producer pointed to continued strength in long-term uranium demand and noted its strategic transition to “tier-one” production economics remains on track.
Management reaffirmed guidance for the year and highlighted solid early progress from its Westinghouse acquisition, despite non-operational costs tied to the deal that modestly weighed on headline profits.
Meanwhile, Kazatomprom delivered a more cautious operational update for the first quarter of 2025. The Kazakh producer confirmed it had revised its full-year uranium production guidance down to 25,000-26,500 tonnes (100% basis), from an earlier target of 30,500-31,500 tonnes.
The production downgrade was attributed to continued challenges at JV Budenovskoye and sulphuric acid shortages. The company said it remains well positioned to meet all contractual obligations, with adequate inventories and a portion of production held uncommitted to capture opportunistic sales.
Together, the updates reflect a uranium market grappling with supply-side constraints amid growing strategic demand. While Cameco is benefiting from improved pricing and long-term visibility, Kazatomprom’s production issues highlight the fragility of global supply just as buyers begin to re-enter the market more aggressively.
Uranium companies listed on the ASX:
| ASX CODE | DATE | LAST PRICE | WEEKLY % MOVE | 52WK HIGH | 52WK LOW | P/E | CONSENSUS TARGET | UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AE | 02/05/2025 | 0.0500 | 0.00% | $0.10 | $0.03 | |||
| AEE | 02/05/2025 | 0.1150 |  – 4.17% |
$0.19 | $0.10 | |||
| AGE | 02/05/2025 | 0.0310 |  10.71% |
$0.07 | $0.02 | $0.100 | 222.6% |
|
| AKN | 02/05/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.02 | $0.01 | |||
| ASN | 02/05/2025 | 0.0550 | – 1.79% |
$0.17 | $0.05 | |||
| BKY | 02/05/2025 | 0.5450 | – 6.03% |
$0.66 | $0.30 | |||
| BMN | 02/05/2025 | 2.5200 | 21.15% |
$4.87 | $1.76 | $4.700 | 86.5% |
|
| BOE | 02/05/2025 | 3.5800 | 26.50% |
$5.99 | $1.99 | 144.9 | $3.723 | 4.0% |
| BSN | 02/05/2025 | 0.0160 | 14.29% |
$0.12 | $0.01 | |||
| C29 | 02/05/2025 | 0.0400 | 0.00% | $0.13 | $0.03 | |||
| CXO | 02/05/2025 | 0.0710 | – 1.39% |
$0.17 | $0.06 | $0.090 | 26.8% |
|
| CXU | 02/05/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.04 | $0.01 | |||
| DEV | 02/05/2025 | 0.0800 | – 3.61% |
$0.45 | $0.07 | |||
| DYL | 02/05/2025 | 1.1800 | 15.12% |
$1.83 | $0.75 | -1180.0 | $1.570 | 33.1% |
| EL8 | 02/05/2025 | 0.2700 | 12.50% |
$0.62 | $0.19 | |||
| ERA | 02/05/2025 | 0.0020 | -50.00% |
$0.05 | $0.00 | |||
| GLA | 02/05/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.02 | $0.01 | |||
| GTR | 02/05/2025 | 0.0030 | 0.00% | $0.01 | $0.00 | |||
| GUE | 02/05/2025 | 0.0700 | 16.67% |
$0.13 | $0.05 | |||
| HAR | 02/05/2025 | 0.0500 | – 3.85% |
$0.12 | $0.03 | |||
| I88 | 02/05/2025 | 0.1000 | -23.08% |
$1.03 | $0.10 | |||
| KOB | 02/05/2025 | 0.0400 | 0.00% | $0.18 | $0.04 | |||
| LAM | 02/05/2025 | 0.7200 | 0.00% | $1.04 | $0.48 | |||
| LOT | 02/05/2025 | 0.1800 | 5.88% |
$0.49 | $0.13 | $0.325 | 80.6% |
|
| MEU | 02/05/2025 | 0.0430 | 10.26% |
$0.06 | $0.03 | |||
| NXG | 02/05/2025 | 8.4700 | 7.35% |
$13.53 | $6.44 | $14.650 | 73.0% |
|
| ORP | 02/05/2025 | 0.0400 | 33.33% |
$0.11 | $0.03 | |||
| PDN | 02/05/2025 | 6.2200 | 11.87% |
$17.98 | $3.93 | -372.6 | $8.407 | 35.2% |
| PEN | 02/05/2025 | 0.6200 | 0.00% | $2.44 | $0.55 | $1.000 | 61.3% |
|
| SLX | 02/05/2025 | 3.2600 | 17.69% |
$6.74 | $2.28 | $6.500 | 99.4% |
|
| TOE | 02/05/2025 | 0.2200 | 10.00% |
$0.48 | $0.15 | |||
| WCN | 02/05/2025 | 0.0230 | 9.52% |
$0.03 | $0.01 |
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