Weekly Reports | 11:15 AM
Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)
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BEACH ENERGY LIMITED ((BPT)) Upgrade to Buy from Sell by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Canaccord Genuity upgrades Beach Energy to Hold from Sell and lifts the target price to $1.30 from $1.28, citing stronger-than-expected March quarter results.
Quarterly production fell -3% to 4.9mnboe but was in line with the analyst's expectations. Sales revenue of $552m was supported by third-party LNG cargoes.
Management's FY25 production guidance of 18.521.5mnboe is retained despite ~0.5mnboe of production deferred post-quarter due to Cooper Basin flooding.
Canaccord Genuity lifted FY25 earnings (EBITDA) by 1.2% reflecting stronger price realisations and LNG volumes.
Waitsia commissioning is progressing with first gas still targeted mid-2025. Otway program remains on track with the Equinox rig expected in June quarter, including -$45m net costs each for abandonment and new drilling.
ORICA LIMITED ((ORI)) Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Ahead of Orica's 1H25 result on May 8, Jarden is forecasting EBIT of $448m, which is in line with consensus and aligns with the company's implied guidance provided earlier.
The broker sees little scope for upside surprise for shareholder returns, given $400m on-market share buyback is already announced.
Focus will be on Burrup re-contracting and digital solutions performance, and capital management framework.
Rating upgraded to Overweight from Neutral on valuation and improved risk profile. Target cut to $17.90 from $18.50.
Change of analyst to Jakob Cakarnis.
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SANDFIRE RESOURCES LIMITED ((SFR)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Goldman Sachs.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Goldman Sachs assesses Sandfire Resources' 3Q25 result as weaker-than-expected as wet weather impacted operations.
Copper and zinc production missed the broker's forecast by -6% and -9%, respectively, and unit costs at both Motheo and Matsa were higher than expected.
The company maintained FY25 guidance, suggesting heavily skewed production in 4Q. The broker is not convinced and is forecasting slightly below, while lifting the cost forecast for Matsa on stronger EUR/USD.
The quarterly result and changes to production and costs resulted in a -7% cut to FY25 EBITDA forecast and a -4% cut to FY26.
Rating downgraded to Neutral from Buy. Target cut to $9.60 from $10.20.
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