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After a couple of strong months, the U308 spot market moved back into a state of inertia, as buyers and sellers await greater clarity on Senator Graham’s Russian sanctions bill.
-U308 spot market falters as Russian sanctions loom, again
-Utilities consider using fiscal strength to support green field projects
-China’s nuclear growth ambitions on display
By Danielle Ecuyer
New bill creates uncertainty for buyers and sellers
After two months of steady advances, industry consultants TradeTech reported a decline in the U3O8 spot price of -0.7%, or -US$0.50, to US$71.50 over the first week of June. This pulls the price decline to -15.9% compared to a year earlier and -5.9% since the start of 2025.
Last week’s Uranium Weekly took a deep dive into the reasons behind the spot price fall and the underlying mechanics driving the U3O8 spot market. (See here: https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/06/03/uranium-week-how-funds-cornered-the-market/)
The World Nuclear Fuel Market (WNFM) Annual Meeting held in Sydney last week may have been a diversion for market participants, but concerns about Russian sanctions have again led to a state of inertia in the uranium spot market.
By way of history, in May 2024, President Joe Biden signed the Prohibiting Russian Uranium Imports Act into law, a landmark move that banned the importation of Russian-produced low-enriched uranium (LEU) starting August 12, 2024.
Russia historically supplied about 27% of all uranium used by US nuclear power plants, but the new legislation aimed to reduce dependence on Russian energy sources. The ban includes provisions for limited waivers, allowing the US Department of Energy to authorise imports, if necessary, for energy security. These waivers will expire by 2028.
To mitigate potential supply disruptions, the law allocates up to US$2.7bn in funding to support the development of domestic uranium enrichment capabilities. The US government has already initiated contracts with companies like Centrus Energy, Urenco, and Orano to boost the nation’s enrichment facilities, including the production of high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) for advanced reactors.
This strategic shift not only strengthens US energy security but also aligns with broader efforts to reduce reliance on Russian energy exports.
While these dynamics impacted activity in 2024, the Trump administration’s proposed 2025 tariff policies created another level of uncertainty, until uranium was covered under an exemption.
Activity and U3O8 spot pricing picked up with the exemption, but the recently proposed bill from Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, who is sponsoring the “Russian Sanctions Bill“, aiming to impose new sanctions on Russia before the G7 summit in late June, is creating yet again more uncertainty for the U308 industry at large.
Putting forth some of the most severe sanctions on Russia’s top trading partners, including a 500% tariff on nations like India and China that purchase Russian energy fuels such as oil, gas, and uranium, the bill remains a work in progress and is considering carve-out exemptions to countries supporting Ukraine.
President Trump is also reportedly pushing back on the bill to broker peace between Russia and Ukraine, but ultimately, market participants were disinclined to entertain transactions with too many question marks around the risks of buying or selling uranium.
TradeTech noted one concluded transaction last week after the market close on Wednesday (US time) at US$71.80 per pound for 100,000 pounds to be delivered to Cameco in December. The timing was just outside the spot U3O8 delivery timeframe.
No transactions took place in the spot market. TradeTech’s Mid-Term Price and Long-Term Price indicators remained both unchanged at respectively US$75 per pound and US$80 per pound.
RBC Capital analysts who attended the WNFM conference commented a lack of near term positive drivers into the 3Q 2025 could result in the spot U308 price consolidating around US$65-US$70/lb as spot market activity remains limited with utilities patient on contracting due to sustainable inventory/contract levels.
Conference homes in on supply chain security and market dynamics
Post the World Nuclear Fuel Market (WNFM) conference held from June 2 to 4 last week, Canaccord Genuity pointed to discussions around utilities, focusing on the gap between spot and the term U3O8 price at US$80 per pound, which is underpinning mining re-starts.
In contrast, there is a lack of sufficient greenfield developments to meet the “uncovered demand” of around 1.3 million pounds out to 2045. Contracting activity is expected to increase in the second half of 2025, with the broker remaining upbeat on the medium-term prospects for uranium.
Interestingly, Canaccord highlights utilities and trading companies are increasingly looking at employing both balance sheet and credit quality to support new U3O8 projects, including possible pre-payment subject to due diligence above contracting agreements to counter the financing hurdles.
Companies such as Bannerman Energy (BMN) and Deep Yellow (DYL) are working to finalise funding. Such initiatives may prove positive to move projects ahead.
One of the themes at the conference was the growing need to build resilience in uranium supply chains. Jamie Fairchild, Uranium and Nuclear Fuel Analyst at the Nuclear Energy Agency, stressed global uncertainties have made it imperative to enhance the security of uranium supplies.
This comes on the back of ongoing challenges in global geopolitics and fluctuating demand for nuclear energy, particularly with the rising focus on small modular reactors (SMRs) and the inclusion of nuclear energy as a clean energy solution.
Canaccord explained China’s goals to have the world’s largest nuclear capacity by 2030, exceeding the US, including the approval of 10-12 reactors per year.
In aiming to secure U3O8 supply and balance the geopolitics, including Biden’s 2024 Prohibiting Russian Uranium Imports Act, China General Nuclear (CGN) has recently entered into a sales and purchase agreement with an unusual pricing structure for uranium, offering a benchmark for pricing in the Chinese market.
This agreement consists of two components: a 30% fixed pricing component at US$94lb and a spot pricing component for the remaining 70%.
The analyst believes this hybrid pricing strategy reflects China’s increasing willingness to pay more for U3O8 as the country seeks to diversify its sources and stabilise its long-term uranium supply, especially considering global energy concerns and geopolitical tensions surrounding Russian energy exports.
RBC confirmed China and Korea are seeking to secure uranium supplies with delegates from China National Nuclear Corporation and Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power highlighting, on separate panels, the rising risks around supply and plans to be more actively involved in uranium supply development.
The conference confirmed RBC’s view that steady growth in demand and rising risks around supply pose risks to the market into the 2030’s.
Energy demand from AI and data centres was highlighted again as a major factor underpinning future nuclear energy demand. The analyst continues to have a positive longer term outlook for uranium and uranium stocks, but feels near term the rally in equities has run its course.
Corporate and other news in the week that was
The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) June investment update showed capital flows to the energy sector are expected to increase in 2025 to US$3.3trn, a lift of 2% on 2024. Some US$2.2trn is going into renewables, nuclear, grids, storage, low-emission fuels, efficiency, and electrification, double the amount going into oil, natural gas, and coal at US$1.1trn.
Regarding nuclear investment, the IEA notes a 50% rise over the last five years, with spending on new nuclear plants and refurbishments anticipated to be over US$70bn. China remains the largest investor in energy, and its share of global clean energy investment has risen to one-third from a quarter ten years ago.
In corporate news, Meta announced it has signed a 20-year agreement to buy nuclear power from Constellation Energy, commencing in June 2027. The power purchase agreement for circa 1.1 GWs of electricity will account for 100% of output from Clinton Clean Energy in Illinois.
The agreement underpins the re-licensing and continued operation of the plant. Constellation is seeking a 20-year extension license to 2047. The contract comes on the back of similar nuclear power purchase agreements by Amazon, Google, and Microsoft.
Urenco will continue to aim for HALEU production (to be used in SMRs) in 2031 post an investment of GBP196m from the UK government.
Feedback from RBC’s company meetings highlighted Westinghouse’s AP100 is shaping up as a robust candidate for future large reactor projects in the US, according to Cameco.
NexGen Energy ((NXG)) explained the potential for approval from the Saskatchewan government to bring forth early works on Rook 1 with management looking at finalising financing options in late 2025/early-2026.
Boss Energy ((BOE)) pointed to a roll-off of the company’s contracted position by the end of 2025, which would leave volumes produced exposed to market prices.
Paladin Energy ((PDN)) explained a significant proportion of contract volumes are at spot price, while from 2025-2030 some 58% of Langer Heinrich production contracted volumes are market-related.
According to the latest data collected and provided by ASIC, dated June 2, Boss Energy ((BOE)) remains the most shorted stock on the ASX, albeit with a small decline in interest of -1.7% to 19.5%. Short positioning in Lotus Resources shares lifted 0.72% to 8.47%.
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For more reading about what happened in May check out these recent weekly updates from FNArena:
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/05/27/uranium-week-trumps-agressive-nuclear-push/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/05/20/uranium-week-europes-nuclear-about-face/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/05/13/uranium-week-a-fundamental-disconnect/
Uranium companies listed on the ASX:
| ASX CODE | DATE | LAST PRICE | WEEKLY % MOVE | 52WK HIGH | 52WK LOW | P/E | CONSENSUS TARGET | UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AE | 06/06/2025 | 0.0700 | 0.00% | $0.10 | $0.03 | |||
| AEE | 06/06/2025 | 0.1350 |  8.00% |
$0.19 | $0.10 | |||
| AGE | 06/06/2025 | 0.0300 | 3.45% |
$0.06 | $0.02 | $0.100 | 233.3% |
|
| AKN | 06/06/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.02 | $0.01 | |||
| ASN | 06/06/2025 | 0.0540 | 10.20% |
$0.17 | $0.05 | |||
| BKY | 06/06/2025 | 0.5450 | 0.00% | $0.67 | $0.30 | |||
| BMN | 06/06/2025 | 2.8500 | 2.15% |
$4.12 | $1.76 | $4.700 | 64.9% |
|
| BOE | 06/06/2025 | 3.8400 |  – 0.52% |
$4.46 | $1.99 | 215.0 | $4.159 | 8.3% |
| BSN | 06/06/2025 | 0.0190 | 11.76% |
$0.08 | $0.01 | |||
| C29 | 06/06/2025 | 0.0300 | -25.00% |
$0.13 | $0.03 | |||
| CXO | 06/06/2025 | 0.0890 | 11.25% |
$0.14 | $0.06 | $0.100 | 12.4% |
|
| CXU | 06/06/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.03 | $0.01 | |||
| DEV | 06/06/2025 | 0.0750 | – 8.54% |
$0.38 | $0.07 | |||
| DYL | 06/06/2025 | 1.3300 | 2.70% |
$1.65 | $0.75 | -1330.0 | $1.570 | 18.0% |
| EL8 | 06/06/2025 | 0.2800 | 0.00% | $0.49 | $0.19 | |||
| ERA | 06/06/2025 | 0.0020 | 0.00% | $0.04 | $0.00 | |||
| GLA | 06/06/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.02 | $0.01 | |||
| GTR | 06/06/2025 | 0.0040 | 0.00% | $0.01 | $0.00 | |||
| GUE | 06/06/2025 | 0.0700 | 0.00% | $0.10 | $0.05 | |||
| HAR | 06/06/2025 | 0.0650 | 10.17% |
$0.12 | $0.03 | |||
| I88 | 06/06/2025 | 0.1000 | – 9.09% |
$1.03 | $0.08 | |||
| KOB | 06/06/2025 | 0.0400 | 0.00% | $0.18 | $0.04 | |||
| LAM | 06/06/2025 | 0.8550 | 18.75% |
$0.90 | $0.48 | |||
| LOT | 06/06/2025 | 0.1700 | – 2.86% |
$0.41 | $0.13 | $0.325 | 91.2% |
|
| MEU | 06/06/2025 | 0.0410 | – 2.38% |
$0.06 | $0.03 | |||
| NXG | 06/06/2025 | 9.6100 | 1.16% |
$13.53 | $6.44 | $14.650 | 52.4% |
|
| ORP | 06/06/2025 | 0.0300 | 0.00% | $0.09 | $0.03 | |||
| PDN | 06/06/2025 | 6.3800 | 6.51% |
$15.14 | $3.93 | -249.8 | $8.493 | 33.1% |
| SLX | 06/06/2025 | 3.4600 | 0.29% |
$6.62 | $2.28 | $6.500 | 87.9% |
|
| TOE | 06/06/2025 | 0.1700 | – 5.56% |
$0.38 | $0.15 | |||
| WCN | 06/06/2025 | 0.0200 | -33.33% |
$0.04 | $0.01 |
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