Daily Market Reports | Jun 11 2025
This story features JOHNS LYNG GROUP LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: JLG
The company is included in ASX300 and ALL-ORDS
Overseas markets were mixed overnight, with US indices tracking higher, led by Tesla and BigTech (again), with Germany’s Dax slipping.
The ASX200 futures are pointing to a positive start, and the index is within a whisker of reaching a fresh all-time-high.
| World Overnight | |||
| SPI Overnight | 8620.00 | + 24.00 | 0.28% |
| S&P ASX 200 | 8587.20 | + 71.50 | 0.84% |
| S&P500 | 6038.81 | + 32.93 | 0.55% |
| Nasdaq Comp | 19714.99 | + 123.75 | 0.63% |
| DJIA | 42866.87 | + 105.11 | 0.25% |
| S&P500 VIX | 16.95 | – 0.21 | – 1.22% |
| US 10-year yield | 4.47 | – 0.01 | – 0.18% |
| USD Index | 99.03 | + 0.04 | 0.04% |
| FTSE100 | 8853.08 | + 20.80 | 0.24% |
| DAX30 | 23987.56 | – 186.76 | – 0.77% |
Good Morning,
Commerce Secretary Lutnick boosted market sentiment around US/China trade talks in London, which look set to extend for a third day.
Yesterday, the ASX200 rallied 71.50 points or 0.84% to 8,587.20 and set a new 50-day high. The index is currently off a new high by -0.33%.
Might today be the day for a fresh milestone?
What happened overnight: Extract NAB Markets Today Research
After dipping into negative territory half-way through the overnight session, US equities rebounded closing higher for a third consecutive day. The news flow was light with the market awaiting the outcome from the US-China trade negotiations in London.
The S&P500 closed in positive territory for a third consecutive day, up 0.48% while the NASDAQ gained 0.61%.
US equities struggled for direction in an uneventful session, losing altitude along the way before comments from US Commerce Secretary lifted sentiment later in the session. Speaking in London, and without giving much away, Lutnick remarked the US-China trade negotiations were going “really, really well”.
Asked if negotiations would conclude Tuesday, Lutnick said, “if they need be, we’ll be here tomorrow, but I hope they end this evening.”
In US company news, JM Smucker fell over -15%, the sharpest fall in over 40 years, after the company admitted tariffs increasing costs in its coffee business will hurt profit.
Tesla shares rose 5.5% and drove the gains within mega caps seemingly boosted by a video of Elon Musk promoting a self-driving car in Austin (speculation of robotaxi launching soon in Texas).
On the other side of the Atlantic, regional Euro equity indexes had a mixed quite day with the Eurostoxx600 closing on Tuesday almost unchanged at -0.02%.
US Treasury yields ended the day little changed with the curve showing a mild flattening bias (2yr up 1bps at 4.01%, 10yr down -1bps at 4.47%). The US bond market is clearly on a wait and see mode, not only waiting for news from US-China trade negotiations, but also CPI and the 10yr bond auction tonight.
Overnight the 3yr auction came and went without much fanfare. The auction printed unremarkable results.
Meanwhile in Europe, UK gilts outperformed with the 10yr tenor falling -8bps to 4.55%, while the equivalent German rate fell -4bps to 2.53%. The move was triggered by a softer than expected UK labour market report, boosting expectations for two additional -25bps rate cuts this year from the Bank of England (-49bps by year end, -8bps lower on the day).
The UK unemployment rate rose one tenth to 4.6%, in line with expectations, but the big downward surprise came from the tax data showing payrolled employees fell -109k in May.
Bloomberg notes the retail and hospitality sectors account for over half of the -276,000 lost jobs since the Budget in October, following the lift in the minimum wage and increased payroll taxes. Growth in wages continues to moderate, with private sector earnings excluding bonuses rising by 5.1% year-on-year in April, down from 5.5%.
In other news, Bloomberg has been running a story that President Trump will soon nominate a new Fed Chair, whose term expires in May 2026. Sources suggest there is only a small list of candidates under consideration, including former Fed official Keven Warsh, but Treasury Secretary Bessent is now emerging as a contender.
“I have the best job in Washington,” Bessent said in response to a request for comment. “The president will decide who’s best for the economy and the American people.”
FX market had a session to forget with movement in G10 pairs over the past 24 hours mostly contained within +/-0.2%.
The AUD and NZD are little changed, but encouragingly for the AUD at USD0.6523, managed to close above 65c for a second consecutive day, retaining its gradual uptrend that has been in place since late in May.
Finally, the World Bank released a new set of forecasts, downgrading the global growth outlook for this year to 2.3% from 2.7%, amid heightened trade tensions and policy uncertainty’. That is down from 2.8% in 2024 and would be the weakest year, apart from the covid pandemic in 2020, since the global financial crisis.
The Bank also forecast soft growth over 2026 and 2027, at 2.4% and 2.6% respectively. If realised, this will mean the average global growth in the first seven years of the 2020s will be the slowest of any decade since the 1960s. Without naming the US President, the lender pointed to ‘a substantial rise in trade barriers’ as being behind the predicted slowdown.
Headlines are hitting the screen suggesting the US and Mexico are closing in on a deal that would remove President Donald Trump’s 50% tariffs on steel imports up to a certain volume. Bloomberg notes the proposal would allow US buyers to import Mexican steel duty-free as long as they kept total shipments below a level based on historical trade volumes.
Market Viewpoints from Benoit Anne, MFS Investment Management
The law of large numbers. We all have had to become amateur tax code lawyers recently. Starting with 899, the section that is perhaps the most controversial in the proposed US reconciliation bill, as it introduces a tax on capital flows with a view to retaliating against countries with “unfair foreign taxes”.
Indeed, some foreign investors’ holdings may ultimately be subject to higher withholding taxes. While the new tax would exempt US Treasuries or portfolio interest, meaning US fixed income is not directly impacted, it may affect equity markets through higher taxes on capital gains and dividends.
In addition, it could also substantially undermine the appetite for foreign capital investment in the US, in particular foreign direct investment (FDI), a development that may go against the US government’s goal of attracting foreign investment and on-shoring.
It is worth flagging non-US companies with high US exposure could be negatively impacted. That is the case, for instance, for a number of European entities.
Moving on to tariffs, we are now talking about 301 and 232, the two sections (unfair trade practices and sector tariffs, respectively) that are likely to be activated when the US judicial system deems the original tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) illegal.
The good news is that we may have already peak tariff fears, with the effective rate of tariffs expected to settle much lower than projected initially in April. The bad news is that section 899 is likely to reinforce the theme of the need for a higher US risk premium and the case for a weaker dollar in the period ahead.
Duration views across the Atlantic. The ECB delivered another cut last week, while sounding a bit more cautious for the period ahead. Overall, the assessment of our developed markets investment research team is that the ECB is now well positioned to navigate current uncertainty, with the possibility of another rate cut after the summer.
The message we are getting from the Fed is murkier. The last rate cut was back in December, and the Fed has been firmly stuck in wait-and-see mode since then. The continued resilience of the US labor market, as illustrated by the recent nonfarm payroll number, suggests the Fed is in no rush to go back into easing mode, especially in view of the ongoing trade and fiscal policy uncertainty.
On this basis, MFS Market Insights is of the view that the strategic case for being long duration is a bit stronger in Europe than it is for the US.
In the US, exposure to credit does make a lot of sense, but essentially as an attractive carry play reflecting the appealing valuation of total yields. Rate compression driven by central bank policy action is unlikely at this juncture to be a major driver of total returns. Meanwhile in Europe, European credit continues to be well positioned especially in the context of the great global rebalancing that is ongoing.
The investor remains bearish. Looking at the whole range of market-based risk appetite indicators, it is worth noting most of them continue to signal a cautious bias towards risk-taking. For instance, the demand for gold, known to be a defensive asset, has gone up substantially, which means the price ratio of gold to copper is now at historically highs, typically a strong risk aversion signal.
Likewise in the FX market, the AUD-JPY cross is now well off its peak, pointing to the outperformance of the safer Japanese yen. The Swiss Franc, another safe haven, is up over 10% against the USD year-to-date.
Meanwhile, the well-followed BofA bull-bear indicator remains in bear territory, albeit marginally. Finally, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) net sentiment reading stands at minus -9, in bearish territory. This is overall broadly consistent with our fixed income investment team’s approach, with their average tracking error standing at the lower end of the historical range.
Historical data, however, may provide a reassuring message. To be clear, the compliance disclaimer does apply here, and historical data may not help us predict the future. The pattern is nonetheless obvious. Since 1987, there were 30 observations when the AAII net reading stood at the same level as it is today, assuming a range of minus -7 to minus -11, ie a two-point window on each side of the current number.
First, the S&P500 was up over the following 12 months 28 times out of these 30 episodes. That is a 93% frequency for positive returns.
More importantly, the median for the subsequent one-year return stood at 14.6%, an above-average performance. This did come with a significant range. Prior to the global financial crisis, the US investor back in February 2008 was broadly as bearish as they are now, and rightly so, as the following 12-month return stood at -45%.
At the other extreme of the range, back in July 1996, a sentiment reading of the same order as it is today paved the way for a subsequent return of 49%.
Overall, the investor is still bearish, but a bit of bearishness might not be a bad thing after all.
Corporate news in Australia
-Pacific Equity Partners is reportedly putting in place debt deals to fund a buyout of Johns Lyng Group ((JLG)).
-GemLife, the retirement community property developer could be the first fast-track IPO listing using the new process as being trialled by ASIC to boost share market listings.
-Monash IVF Group ((MVF)) reported another incorrect embryo transfer, the second incident this year, and its share price got shellacked.
-Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan is selling its 60% stake in Sydney’s $2.5bn desalination plant. Barrenjoey Capital Partners are actioning the sale.
-KKR is considering a full buyout of Spark NZ ((SPK)) as it sells 50% of the data centres with EQT Holdings ((EQT)) and NextDC ((NXT)) reportedly showing interest.
On the calendar today:
-NZ April Net immigration
-JP May PPI
-US May CPI
-TOWER LIMITED ((TWR)) ex-div 7.35c
FNArena’s four-weekly calendar: https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/
| Spot Metals,Minerals & Energy Futures | |||
| Gold (oz) | 3344.75 | – 1.97 | – 0.06% |
| Silver (oz) | 36.66 | – 0.27 | – 0.73% |
| Copper (lb) | 4.89 | – 0.01 | – 0.28% |
| Aluminium (lb) | 1.13 | + 0.01 | 0.47% |
| Nickel (lb) | 6.84 | – 0.08 | – 1.12% |
| Zinc (lb) | 1.21 | + 0.00 | 0.18% |
| West Texas Crude | 64.72 | – 0.66 | – 1.01% |
| Brent Crude | 66.66 | – 0.44 | – 0.66% |
| Iron Ore (t) | 95.47 | – 0.15 | – 0.16% |
The Australian share market over the past thirty days
| Index | 10 Jun 2025 | Week To Date | Month To Date (Jun) | Quarter To Date (Apr-Jun) | Year To Date (2025) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P ASX 200 (ex-div) | 8587.20 | 0.84% | 1.81% | 9.48% | 5.25% |
| BROKER RECOMMENDATION CHANGES PAST THREE TRADING DAYS | |||
| BET | Betmakers Technology | Upgrade to Buy from Speculative Buy | Ord Minnett |
| DMP | Domino’s Pizza Enterprises | Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight | Morgan Stanley |
| MP1 | Megaport | Downgrade to Sell from Hold | Ord Minnett |
For more detail go to FNArena’s Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.
All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available on the FNArena website. Click here. (Subscribers can access prices on the website.)
(Readers should note that all commentary, observations, names and calculations are provided for informative and educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions. All views expressed are the author’s and not by association FNArena’s – see disclaimer on the website)
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CHARTS
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: EQT - EQT HOLDINGS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: JLG - JOHNS LYNG GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MVF - MONASH IVF GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NXT - NEXTDC LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SPK - SPARK NEW ZEALAND LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: TWR - TOWER LIMITED