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An absence of buyers led to sellers lowering U308 offers in the first weekly spot price fall since July.
-Holtec pushes Indian Point reversal, Kazakhstan eyes new nuclear plants, Cameco expands
-Uranium market faces first spot price decline since July amid weak buying
-Broker earnings downgrade keeps spotlight on Boss Energy’s Honeymoon uncertainty
By Danielle Ecuyer
A quiet, weak market prevailed as buyers stepped back
After much excitement and fanfare around the London World Nuclear Symposium a dose of reality sank back into the macro narrative around uranium and the drive to expand nuclear capacity.
As the saying goes, “rhetoric is cheap, results matter” as exemplified by Holtec calling on New York’s state governor Kathy Hochul to support the reversal of decommissioning the Indian Point Nuclear Power Plant, which commenced five years ago.
Holtec believes the 2000MW facility could be recommissioned with state and US government support.
Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev detailed this week how the country’s economic stability could not rely on Central Asia’s first nuclear power plant. Planning for construction of a second and third plant was essential to secure Kazakhstan’s future energy supplies.
In a welcome reprieve, President Trump exempted graphite, tungsten, uranium, gold bullion, and other metals from his country-based tariffs commencing September 8, which alleviated uncertainty in the markets.
Urenco made the news as the only US commercial producer of enriched uranium. The company started its second cascade of gas centrifuges at its facility in New Mexico, adding 700k separative work units (SWU) of new capacity at the site from 2025-2027.
It will also increase the plant’s capacity by 15% with the initial cascade brought online in May earlier this year.
Meanwhile, Aalo Atomics expects to take delivery of low-enriched uranium supplied by Urenco no later than 1Q 2026, as part of the process for establishing the Aalo-X advanced reactor in the US. Aalo-X is developing an “extra modular reactor” at demonstration scale. The design is sodium-cooled and uses low-enriched uranium oxide fuel.
Cameco announced it has finalised a long term contract to supply uranium hexfluoride (UF6), including conversion services to the Slovakian energy giant, Slovenské elektrárne, for the Bohunice and Mochovce nuclear plants from 2028 through 2036.
This represents Cameco’s entry into the Central European market, as European utilities look to reduce their reliance on Russian nuclear fuel.
Ahead of President Trump’s trip to the the UK, several agreements between the US and UK have been signed to advance the deployment of small modular reactors in both countries.
“This builds on collaboration between regulators for the ongoing UK assessments of GE-Vernova and Holtec reactor designs”, the UK’s Department for Energy Security and Net Zero stated.
“UK and US will also work hand-in-hand to share the workload of new projects entering site licensing, speeding up delivery, to get nuclear project sites in the UK approved more quickly.
“These checks are vital to ensure nuclear sites are suitable, but by closer working with the US, the UK will build world-class nuclear standards while accelerating delivery — boosting energy security, driving growth and creating jobs.”
Spot price snaps a seven-week run of increases
Industry consultant TradeTech reports the spot U308 market was relatively quiet over the last week.
The Sprott Physical Uranium Trust acquired 100klbs of U308 at US$76.75/lb for delivery in September at Orano’s facility in France on Monday September 8.
A lack of buyers resulted in downward pressure on the U308 spot price, with one buyer picking up 50klbs at US$75.75/lb.
A further lack of buying support saw the seller lower the spot price to US$75/lb for 100klbs delivery in September at Orano last Friday.
TradeTech’s spot price indicator fell -US$2.25 from the August 29 value and -US$1.75/lb from the September 11 price. Since last week the spot price is down -2.9%, to date in 2025 it is down -1.3%, and down -6.3% over the year past.
This represents the first decline since the end of July. At US$75/lb, spot remains well above the average for 2025 of US$70.53/lb.
TradeTech’s Mid-term price indicator came in at US$80/lb and the Long-term price indicator at US$82/lb.
Boss Energy in focus as question markets remain around Honeymoon
Boss Energy ((BOE)) was upgraded by UBS this week to Neutral from Sell following share price weakness, with a $2 target.
The analyst did highlight the shares have been subjected to a volatile few months post the CEO’s departure and uncertainty over whether Honeymoon can reach nameplate capacity, which has prompted an independent review.
UBS downgraded FY26 production forecast by -7% and FY27-FY28 by -18%, which led to a downgrade in earnings (EBITDA) forecast by -15% for FY26 and -25% for FY27.
Ord Minnett pointed to management appointing a technical team with ISR (in-situ recovery) experts to assess the worse-than-expected geological continuity at the eastern end of the Honeymoon project.
The latter has no investment case for Boss as the economic outcome of the U308 resource remains unknown. The updated technical report is expected to be released by the end of 2025. Ord Minnett has a Hold rating and $2.10 target price.
Not daily monitored Barrenjoey has lowered its forecast nameplate capacity at Honeymoon to 1.9mlbs p.a. production over a 12-year mine life from 2.45mlbs p.a. before the uncertainty arose.
Barrenjoey also stresses the uncertainty around the final production profile, including costs, capex, and resource life for Honeymoon. Fluctuations in these variables can have a significant impact on the company’s valuation.
An Underweight rating is retained due to ongoing uncertainty, with a $2 target price.
Short interest receded again as at September 9, falling for a second week; down -1.24% to 18.91%.
Macquarie Capital is reported as being charged with raising $300m in equity for Paladin Energy ((PDN)) after the market’s close on Monday, September 15 after the CEO, Ian Purdy had been presenting in Asia at a Jeffries conference and a large instiutional shareholder has divested a $100m stake through Citi.
As at September 9, Paladin fell from the second most shorted stock on the ASX to third spot, overtaken by lithium miner Pilbara Minerals ((PLS)), with shorts now at 16.85%, down -0.79% on the week.
Short interest in Lotus Resources ((LOT)) moved up 0.73% with this stock in thirteenth position at 8.91%, and Deep Yellow at seventeenth position at 7.93% shorted.
For recent weekly updates on uranium, see:
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/09/09/uranium-week-tripling-nuclear-capacity-by-2050/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/08/26/uranium-week-kazatomprom-sparks-a-rally/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/08/05/uranium-week-supply-challenges-are-mounting/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/07/22/uranium-week-utilities-swing-into-gear/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/07/15/uranium-week-sprott-bump-no-more/
Uranium companies listed on the ASX:
| ASX CODE | DATE | LAST PRICE | WEEKLY % MOVE | 52WK HIGH | 52WK LOW | P/E | CONSENSUS TARGET | UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AE | 12/09/2025 | 0.0700 | 0.00% | $0.09 | $0.03 | |||
| AEE | 12/09/2025 | 0.2300 |  – 2.22% |
$0.25 | $0.10 | |||
| AGE | 12/09/2025 | 0.0200 | – 9.09% |
$0.05 | $0.02 | $0.070 |  250.0% |
|
| AKN | 12/09/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.01 | $0.01 | |||
| ASN | 12/09/2025 | 0.0800 | -12.09% |
$0.13 | $0.04 | |||
| BKY | 12/09/2025 | 0.5200 | – 0.95% |
$0.67 | $0.31 | |||
| BMN | 12/09/2025 | 3.3900 | 0.89% |
$3.68 | $1.76 | $4.700 | 38.6% |
|
| BOE | 12/09/2025 | 1.8400 | -18.18% |
$4.75 | $1.57 | 9.6 | $2.329 | 26.6% |
| BSN | 12/09/2025 | 0.0500 | 4.17% |
$0.08 | $0.01 | |||
| C29 | 12/09/2025 | 0.0200 | 25.00% |
$0.13 | $0.01 | |||
| CXO | 12/09/2025 | 0.1000 | – 4.76% |
$0.14 | $0.06 | $0.110 | 10.0% |
|
| CXU | 12/09/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.03 | $0.01 | |||
| DEV | 12/09/2025 | 0.0900 | – 4.26% |
$0.18 | $0.07 | |||
| DYL | 12/09/2025 | 1.9000 | – 5.10% |
$2.00 | $0.75 | -366.0 | $1.940 | 2.1% |
| EL8 | 12/09/2025 | 0.3000 | – 9.38% |
$0.42 | $0.19 | |||
| ERA | 12/09/2025 | 0.0020 | 0.00% | $0.01 | $0.00 | |||
| GLA | 12/09/2025 | 0.0300 | 0.00% | $0.04 | $0.01 | |||
| GTR | 12/09/2025 | 0.1300 | 0.00% | $0.13 | $0.00 | |||
| GUE | 12/09/2025 | 0.0600 | 0.00% | $0.10 | $0.05 | |||
| HAR | 12/09/2025 | 0.1200 | 27.91% |
$0.13 | $0.03 | |||
| I88 | 12/09/2025 | 0.2300 | – 3.57% |
$0.72 | $0.08 | |||
| KOB | 12/09/2025 | 0.0300 | 0.00% | $0.14 | $0.03 | |||
| LAM | 12/09/2025 | 0.6400 | 10.34% |
$0.90 | $0.48 | |||
| LOT | 12/09/2025 | 0.1800 | -10.00% |
$0.32 | $0.13 | $0.295 | 63.9% |
|
| MEU | 12/09/2025 | 0.0500 | 21.95% |
$0.06 | $0.03 | |||
| NXG | 12/09/2025 | 11.5200 | – 1.01% |
$13.53 | $6.44 | $12.925 | 12.2% |
|
| ORP | 12/09/2025 | 0.0300 | 0.00% | $0.06 | $0.02 | |||
| PDN | 12/09/2025 | 7.8800 | – 5.49% |
$13.27 | $3.93 | 51.3 | $8.729 | 10.8% |
| PEN | 12/09/2025 | 0.2900 | – 4.92% |
$2.20 | $0.28 | $1.000 | 244.8% |
|
| SLX | 12/09/2025 | 4.0100 | – 5.31% |
$6.62 | $2.28 | $6.500 | 62.1% |
|
| TOE | 12/09/2025 | 0.1900 | 8.57% |
$0.36 | $0.15 | |||
| WCN | 12/09/2025 | 0.0200 | -20.00% |
$0.04 | $0.01 |
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For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BOE - BOSS ENERGY LIMITED
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