In Case You Missed It – BC Extra Upgrades & Downgrades – 26-09-25

Array
(
    [0] => Array
        (
            [0] => ((ABB))
            [1] => ((NWL))
            [2] => ((STO))
            [3] => ((VAU))
        )

    [1] => Array
        (
            [0] => ABB
            [1] => NWL
            [2] => STO
            [3] => VAU
        )

)

This story features AUSSIE BROADBAND LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ABB
The company is included in ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

A summary of the highlights from Broker Call Extra updates throughout the week past.

Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)

Upgrade

AUSSIE BROADBAND LIMITED ((ABB)) Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden raises its target for Aussie Broadband to $5.80 from $5.30 and upgrades to Overweight from Neutral.

The broker raises its per-unit earnings (EBITDA) assumptions for the More & Tangerine (M&T) contract by 10% annually. This raises Jarden’s terminal-year (FY32) EBITDA contribution to around $32.8m from $19.8m and drives a 6% EPS upgrade by FY32.

The broker notes residential remains the key long-term driver, with Aussie’s brand strength and premium pricing sustaining attractive economics. By FY32, around 4.8 M&T customers are expected to generate the same incremental earnings as one residential subscriber.

The analysts caution risks include weaker residential growth, competition from alternate technologies such as fixed wireless access, and greater price competition. 

NETWEALTH GROUP LIMITED ((NWL)) Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden notes Netwealth Group’s share price fell -10% since FY25 results on ASIC’s investigation into failed funds First Guardian and Shield, but risks appear more moderate given it cut off First Guardian flows earlier than peers.

The broker highlights past ASIC cases imply potential penalties of -$40m, which is around 21% of the FY26 earnings estimate. However, exposure is contained by the company’s low super dependence, strong product offering, and margin flexibility.

Overall, the broker reckons the company has the capacity to absorb any costs within the FY26 cost forecast, and in fact, further out, it could benefit from flows from sub-scale platforms that may struggle to meet growing trustee demands.

FY26-27 earnings forecasts trimmed by -1-2% on higher cost growth. Target cut to $34.00 from $34.60.

Rating upgraded to Overweight from Neutral.

Downgrade

SANTOS LIMITED ((STO)) Downgrade to Underweight from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden lowers its target for Santos to $7.05 from $8.40 and downgrades to Underweight from Overweight after ADNOC’s XRG consortium withdrew its indicative US$5.63/share (circa $8.42) takeover offer.

Santos had been trading at a discount, closing at $7.65 on September 17, but the broker’s underlying valuation is $7.05 at US$70/bbl Brent, or $6.39 at US$65/bbl.

The analysts explain the consortium cited a mix of commercial factors and terms in the Scheme Implementation Agreement as reasons for pulling out. Market disappointment is expected, with investors likely to question management’s negotiation strategy.

The broker expects management to emphasise upcoming catalysts including first gas from Barossa LNG by late September and the accelerated timeline at Pikka in Alaska.

All in all, it’s thought shareholders will be left bruised by the collapse of the deal.

VAULT MINERALS LIMITED ((VAU)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Moelis and Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Vault Minerals’ FY26 guidance is for gold production of 332-360koz, costs (AISC) of between -$2,650-2,850/oz, and capex of -$278m, all slightly softer than Moelis’ prior assumptions.

Exploration spend of -$30m was also higher than expected. FY27 and FY28 production guidance of 360-390koz and 370-400koz, respectively, provides scope for upside relative to consensus, highlight the analysts.

The broker adjusts its forecasts to align with midpoints of production and cost guidance, with near-term impacts at Deflector and stronger medium-term volumes across the portfolio.

While Moelis downgrades its rating to Hold from Buy, citing the recent rally in the share price which has eroded valuation upside, the target price is raised to 69c from 67c.

The broker notes a spot price scenario could justify valuation of around 90c, with FY27 trading on an 18.7% free cash flow (FCF) yield and forecast cash of around $1.5bn, leaving Vault among its preferred gold exposures.

Jarden lowers its target for Vault Minerals to 49c from 51c after allowing for management’s three-year targets and downgrades to Neutral from Buy given the recent strong share price.

FY26 production guidance of 332-360koz came in below consensus, with weaker output at Deflector during its owner-operator transition, while Mount Monger and King of the Hills are steady, explains the broker.

The analysts explain group costs (AISC) of -$2,650-2,850/oz reflect lower production and transition costs at Deflector, plus higher expensed mining at Mount Monger. It’s also noted Leonora also faces higher material movement costs offset by inventory credits.

Growth capex falls around -10% year-on-year, though Deflector’s -$48m is above consensus due to new underground equipment, notes Jarden. Production is expected to recover in FY27-28 via King of the Hills and Sugar Zone.

Price Target Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)

More Highlights

ASN    ANSON RESOURCES LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.09 

Petra Capital rates ((ASN)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital notes that over the past 12 weeks, flows into the lithium sector are up 25% y/y, driving a 16% increase in overall sector valuation

While hard-rock names have captured near-term trading momentum, the broker sees better medium-term risk/reward in brine (salty underground water) players with cost advantages and strategic US alignment.

Anson Resources is one of the broker’s preferred exposures.

Target price 38c, which was upgraded from 31c on July 30 after the June quarter report as the broker factored in forex and commodity price revisions.

Buy retained.

This report was published on September 23, 2025.

Target price is $0.38 Current Price is $0.09 Difference: $0.292
If ASN meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 332% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 44.00.

Forecast for FY27:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 44.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BRE    BRAZILIAN RARE EARTHS LIMITED

Rare Earth Minerals – Overnight Price: $3.78 

Canaccord Genuity rates ((BRE)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity notes Brazilian Rare Earths’ latest assays at Sulista East confirm continuous, thick and high-grade mineralisation, with intercepts averaging 3.1% total rare earth oxides (TREO) across 500 metres of strike.

Together with Sulista West’s recent high-grade results, drilling continues to validate the exploration model and points to a large, high-grade resource potential at Sulista, the broker highlights.

In the near term, the broker sees the upcoming mineral resource estimate and scoping study at Monte Alto (expected late 2025/early 2026) as the next key catalyst for share valuation.

Speculative Buy. Target unchanged at $5.65.

This report was published on September 17, 2025.

Target price is $5.65 Current Price is $3.78 Difference: $1.87
If BRE meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of minus 0.25 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 1512.00.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of minus 0.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 472.50.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ERD    EROAD LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $2.36 

Moelis rates ((ERD)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Moelis initiates coverage on Eroad  with a Buy rating and $3.00 target highlighting the company’s transformation into a multinational telematics platform with integrated fleet services and scalable growth opportunities.

Management’s strategy is positioned around industry shifts toward electrification, connected vehicles, and sustainability, with offerings aimed at enhancing fleet efficiency and compliance, explains the broker.

The analyst points to three growth drivers: regulatory changes introducing road user charges as fuel excise declines, rising data demand from connected and autonomous vehicles, and fleet operators seeking emissions and safety management solutions.

Expansion opportunities include deeper penetration in A&NZ and North America, upselling to a full operations platform, and broadening into light commercial and passenger fleets, highlights Moelis.

The broker expects disciplined execution to deliver margin expansion and improved returns. 

This report was published on September 22, 2025.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.36 Difference: $0.64
If ERD meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 76.18.

Forecast for FY27:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.56 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 42.45.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HGO    HILLGROVE RESOURCES LIMITED

Copper – Overnight Price: $0.04 

Moelis rates ((HGO)) as Buy (1) –

Hillgrove Resources announced its underground drilling program results at the Emily Star deposit with Moelis pointing to positive results.

Grades above the existing 0.77% copper resource came in. Management aims to build a further platform at Nugent to target Emily Star, to underpin greater ore definition, which, if positive, the analyst asserts could result in a significant upgrade to the explorer’s resource base.

Buy. Target price 6c

This report was published on September 18, 2025.

Target price is $0.06 Current Price is $0.04 Difference: $0.02
If HGO meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.00.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.33.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QAL    QUALITAS LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $3.45 

Jarden rates ((QAL)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden notes recent downgrades of Metrics Master Income Trust ((MXT)) and Metrics Income Opportunities Trust ((MOT)) highlight conflicts of interest, reduced transparency, and governance concerns.

This prompted Macquarie Group ((MQG)) to freeze new super allocations to four Metrics funds. 

The broker notes Qualitas’ wholesale fund, launched in 2023, is already on BT, Netwealth ((NWL)), Mason Stevens and soon Hub24 ((HUB)), positioning it to capture flows from investors shifting away from Metrics.

The broker believes Qualitas’ best-practice approach via strict lending limits, transparency, and conservative leverage positions it as a long-term winner.

Buy. Target unchanged at $4.26.

This report was published on September 19, 2025.

Target price is $4.26 Current Price is $3.45 Difference: $0.81
If QAL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 12.90 cents and EPS of 13.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.00.

Forecast for FY27:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 15.70 cents and EPS of 16.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.41.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

REG    REGIS HEALTHCARE LIMITED

Aged Care & Seniors – Overnight Price: $6.49 

Jarden rates ((REG)) as Overweight (2) –

Management at Regis Healthcare issued FY26 earnings (EBITDA) guidance of $130-135m, -8% below consensus, which Jarden says destabilised expectations of robust funding to cover staffing costs.

The negative share price reaction of -26% appears unjustified to the broker. It’s felt entry opportunities are supported by expectations of a government review of the Accommodation Supplement to address concessional resident underfunding.

Regis can also rebalance its mix towards RAD/DAP residents and raise RAD pricing, suggest the analysts.

The broker maintains an Overweight rating and lowers its target to $8.20 from $8.95.

This report was published on September 22, 2025.

Target price is $8.20 Current Price is $6.49 Difference: $1.71
If REG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 13.80 cents and EPS of 19.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.28.

Forecast for FY27:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 18.20 cents and EPS of 25.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.25.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Click to view our Glossary of Financial Terms