Weekly Reports | Nov 11 2025
This story features AURA ENERGY LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AEE
Risk off affected spot uranium trading while the longer term investment case for higher U308 prices continues to mount.
- Risk-off tone drags U308 prices lower amid financial market volatility
- Kazatomprom and Cameco updates highlight tightening supply outlook
- AI-driven power demand and US nuclear funding intensify long-term uranium case
- Brokers back Bannerman, Lotus and NexGen as key sector beneficiaries
By Danielle Ecuyer
Short-term’ism’ shakes the U308 spot market
Not unlike global equity markets, the risk-off tone permeated into the spot U308 market last week, with spot traders more aligned with other financial markets and sentiment rather than medium-long term uranium demand/supply fundamentals.
There has been a rolling sell-off across multiple assets classes, including gold, bitcoin and more recently AI-related technology stocks. Last week it was uranium’s turn.
Industry consultant TradeTech highlighted ongoing price volatility across the week, with the U308 spot price down -US$5.87 to US$76.63/lb, a fall of -US$1.37 from the November 6 spot price and the largest fall in dollar terms since March 2024.
Nine transactions were conducted across the week. Trades at the beginning of the week were conducted at US$82 before slipping last Tuesday to US$79. On Thursday, 50klbs of U308 was transacted at US$77.50/lb.
Friday afternoon saw an uptick in activity with one deal for delivery in December at Cameco’s Canada facility, followed by another for 100klbs at US$76.25/lb for a December delivery at Honeywell’s ConverDyn plant. An additional 100klbs of U308 was concluded for December delivery to Cameco at US$76.75/lb.
The general risk off tone dominated in contrast to the positive news announced by the US Administration the prior day when copper, silver and uranium were added to the government’s list of critical minerals.
TradeTech’s Mid-term price stands at US$87/lb and Long-term price at US$86/lb. Overall, nine transactions were concluded in the spot market last week.
Big producers report mixed results
In corporate news, Cameco reported a small net loss for Q3 2025, with adjusted net earnings of CA$32m (US$23m) and adj earnings (EBITDA) of CA$310m (US$220m).
The company produced 4.4Mlbs U3O8 (its share), purchased 1.4Mlbs at an average cost of CA$82.51/lb (US$60.13/lb), and borrowed 2Mlbs under product loan facilities.
Sales volume fell -16% year-on-year to 6.1Mlbs, while the average realised price rose 3% to US$62.12/lb.
Production guidance was reduced to 14–15Mlbs U3O8 (100% basis; 9.8–10.5Mlbs share) for 2025, down from 18Mlbs previously, though Cameco noted potential to produce 19Mlbs (100% basis) to offset part of the shortfall. The company maintains long-term contracts averaging more than 28Mlbs U3O8 annually, with deliveries peaking between 2025–2027.
Kazatomprom reported higher quarterly production of 6,467tU (16.8Mlbs U3O8), up from 5,894tU (15.3Mlbs) a year earlier. Attributable production rose 8% to 3,375tU (8.8Mlbs).
For the nine months to September 30, total output increased 12% year-on-year to 18,709tU (48.6Mlbs), while attributable production climbed 10% to 9,806tU (25.5Mlbs).
Sales volumes jumped 33% in Q3 to 6,867tU (17.9Mlbs) due to accelerated customer deliveries, with nine-month sales up 10% to 12,776tU (33.2Mlbs).
The company re-affirmed 2025 guidance for attributable production of 13,000–14,000tU (33.8–36.4Mlbs) and consolidated sales of 17,500–18,500tU (45.5–48.1Mlbs).
Supply side dynamics continue to be challenged
In a sector update with the catchy title “It’s supply, stupid”, Petra Capital stressed again the U308 supply shortfall facing the US and Western countries, particularly as power demand soars under AI-related demand in data centres.
Big Tech CEOs have recently called into question again the power supply challenges for the industry, including Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg and Satya Nadella of Microsoft.
In Australia, Morgan Stanley is the latest broker to highlight National Electricity Market demand is up 3% fiscal year 2026 to date, and night demand, a proxy for data centre growth, is up 96MW in NSW y/y and up 170MW in Victoria y/y.
The rising demand for power from data centre growth is not isolated to the US.
Petra’s research report describes Washington’s US$80bn capital injection to help fund nuclear reactor development with Westinghouse, as discussed in last week’s Uranium Weekly (https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/11/04/uranium-week-washington-backs-westinhouse/), as a sense of urgency to address the demand side but also concludes it fails to touch concerns around supply-side dynamics.
The uranium market has been in production deficit, and the extent of the current and looming shortfall is described as “troubling”. Cameco estimates utilities have 3.2bn pounds uncontracted to 2045, which equates to around 160Mlbs per annum before any growth in Western demand.
Petra notes year-to-date contracting in 2025 is estimated around 45Mlbs.
The US remains one of the world’s largest uranium consumers, some 55.9Mlbs in 2024, but its production is highlighted as next to nothing, relatively speaking.
From a national security perspective, the US will likely seek out alliances to guarantee imports from allies such as Australia. Political pressure is likely to grow in opposition to state mining policies against uranium extraction in both Queensland and Western Australia.
Petra notes positive cash inflows to uranium ETFs, URA and URNM, which hold around 8% of the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust.
Capital inflows are likely to push up the Trust’s share price, which in turn will allow it to trade at a premium to net asset value, which allows the Trust to issue more units, raise cash and underpin U308 spot purchases, which has been the case in 2025.
Underpinning the ETF inflows is the fundamental mismatch between Western demand and supply models, which yet are not discounting the growth in Western demand.
Stocks in focus this week
From a company-specific standpoint, Petra likes Aura Energy ((AEE)), seen offering the best uranium exploration upside potential via its resource at Tiris.
Aura also has provincial scale in Mauritania. Both the departure of the explorer’s Managing Director and US government shutdown are considered a drag on its timeline schedule. At the end of the recent September quarter, cash stood at $8.9m.
Aura Energy is Buy rated with a 38c target price.
Bannerman Energy ((BMN)) is noted for its greenfield project, Etango in Namibia, and is a key Australian uranium stock held by U308 ETF products, and thus potentially a beneficiary of capital flows into those ETFs.
The final investment decision is expected to be postponed from 2H2025 into 1H2026 as the company awaits higher U308 pricing. Petra estimates Bannerman has cash and liquid assets of around $112m, with $49.2m committed to early works in the September quarter (2025) and $31.5m of early works already finished.
The stock is Buy rated with a $5.30 target price.
Macquarie initiated coverage on Bannerman last week, pointing to better U308 pricing as a catalyst to enable the 3.5Mlb Etango project to reach a final investment decision.
The analyst observes the uranium sector faces a shortage of shovel-ready greenfield projects just as global uranium demand is accelerating, supported by the nuclear energy revival and AI-driven power needs.
Bannerman’s Etango project stands out as fully permitted and advancing through early works, with a final investment decision approaching and first production targeted for 2028; well ahead of comparable Canadian developments expected in the early 2030s.
Strong reactor growth, particularly with around 70 units under construction (nearly half in China), underpins expectations for a long-term uranium price (average) of about US$95/lb. Bannerman is maintaining exposure to market upside by deferring contract commitments, though higher price floors near US$85/lb could prompt hedging depending on financing terms.
Etango’s risk profile has improved through on-site heap leach trials confirming fast processing times and low acid use due to favourable ore characteristics. The shallow, consistent orebody reduces operational complexity, while its proximity to Swakopmund and Walvis Bay provides logistical and workforce advantages.
The stock is Buy rated with a $5.20 target price, and Macquarie believes the shares are currently inferring a US$68/lb price, which looks cheap relative to peers.
FNArena’s daily monitored consensus target price is $5.10, with two Buys including Macquarie.
Petra Capital retains a Buy rating on Lotus Resources ((LOT)) with a 25c target and on NexGen Energy ((NXG)) with a $17.14 target.
At the end of September, Lotus had cash on hand of $97m post a recent $65m equity capital raising while continuing to ramp up production at Kayelekera in Malawi.
NexGen remains the “most strategic” company in the sector with rising US demand, this broker argues. Around $1bn in equity capital was raised in early October on top of the existing September quarter cash of $725m. Initial approval hearing for Rook 1 is due on November 19, with a second hearing in February 9–13, 2026.
The company is also a not insignificant shareholding in U308 ETFs, with a dual listing on the ASX and the Toronto Stock Exchange, with a combined market capitalisation of $9.1bn.
Short position changes over the week
Touching on the most recent short position updates from ASIC and as at November 4, Boss Energy ((BOE)) continues to be the most shorted stock on the ASX at 20.82%, down -2.75% on the prior week.
Short interests in Paladin Energy ((PDN)) rose by 1.63% over the week to 13.86% placing it in fourth position.
Silex Systems ((SLX)) experienced a decline in shorts by -1.25% to 6.95%.
For more reading see:
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/10/28/uranium-week-projecting-us150-lb-post-2026/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/10/21/uranium-week-jpmorgans-us1-5trn-plan/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/10/14/uranium-week-price-frenzy-fades/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/10/17/paladin-energy-powering-on/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/09/30/uranium-week-sprott-spurs-spot-price-glow/
Uranium companies listed on the ASX:
| ASX CODE | DATE | LAST PRICE | WEEKLY % MOVE | 52WK HIGH | 52WK LOW | P/E | CONSENSUS TARGET | UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AE | 07/11/2025 | 0.1100 | 0.00% | $0.12 | $0.03 | |||
| AEE | 07/11/2025 | 0.2100 |  – 9.52% | $0.28 | $0.10 | |||
| AGE | 07/11/2025 | 0.0300 | – 7.41% | $0.04 | $0.02 | $0.070 |  133.3% | |
| AKN | 07/11/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.01 | $0.01 | |||
| ASN | 07/11/2025 | 0.0900 | 5.00% | $0.13 | $0.04 | |||
| BKY | 07/11/2025 | 0.5300 | – 5.26% | $0.70 | $0.31 | |||
| BMN | 07/11/2025 | 3.2900 | -15.08% | $4.07 | $1.76 | $5.100 | 55.0% | |
| BOE | 07/11/2025 | 1.8200 | -17.00% | $4.75 | $1.57 | 9.2 | $2.279 | 25.2% |
| BSN | 07/11/2025 | 0.0500 | -11.48% | $0.08 | $0.01 | |||
| C29 | 07/11/2025 | 0.0300 | 17.39% | $0.13 | $0.01 | |||
| CXO | 07/11/2025 | 0.1600 | 16.00% | $0.17 | $0.06 | $0.110 | -31.3% | |
| CXU | 07/11/2025 | 0.0200 | 0.00% | $0.03 | $0.01 | |||
| DEV | 07/11/2025 | 0.1200 | – 4.00% | $0.18 | $0.07 | |||
| DYL | 07/11/2025 | 1.6400 | -11.95% | $2.49 | $0.75 | -326.0 | $1.930 | 17.7% |
| EL8 | 07/11/2025 | 0.3000 | -22.86% | $0.50 | $0.19 | |||
| ERA | 07/11/2025 | 0.0030 | -33.33% | $0.00 | $0.00 | |||
| GLA | 07/11/2025 | 0.0100 | -50.00% | $0.05 | $0.01 | |||
| GUE | 07/11/2025 | 0.0600 | 0.00% | $0.09 | $0.05 | |||
| HAR | 07/11/2025 | 0.1500 | – 6.90% | $0.25 | $0.04 | |||
| I88 | 07/11/2025 | 0.3000 | -20.00% | $0.76 | $0.08 | |||
| KOB | 07/11/2025 | 0.0700 | 0.00% | $0.11 | $0.03 | |||
| LAM | 07/11/2025 | 0.7000 | – 1.39% | $0.90 | $0.55 | |||
| LOT | 07/11/2025 | 0.1800 | -12.82% | $0.26 | $0.13 | $0.337 | 87.0% | |
| MEU | 07/11/2025 | 0.0700 | – 7.58% | $0.09 | $0.03 | |||
| NXG | 07/11/2025 | 13.2100 | -15.97% | $15.21 | $6.44 | $15.625 | 18.3% | |
| ORP | 07/11/2025 | 0.0600 | 0.00% | $0.06 | $0.02 | |||
| PDN | 07/11/2025 | 8.3000 | -17.86% | $9.95 | $3.93 | 67.7 | $9.843 | 18.6% |
| PEN | 07/11/2025 | 0.5200 | -19.49% | $1.80 | $0.28 | $1.330 | 155.8% | |
| SLX | 07/11/2025 | 9.2300 | -12.94% | $10.85 | $2.28 | $11.200 | 21.3% | |
| TOE | 07/11/2025 | 0.4400 | – 5.21% | $0.52 | $0.15 | |||
| WCN | 07/11/2025 | 0.0200 | -10.00% | $0.04 | $0.01 |
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CHARTS
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AEE - AURA ENERGY LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BMN - BANNERMAN ENERGY LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BOE - BOSS ENERGY LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: LOT - LOTUS RESOURCES LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NXG - NEXGEN ENERGY LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PDN - PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SLX - SILEX SYSTEMS LIMITED