In Brief: Dicker Data, SRG Global & ResMed

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This story features DICKER DATA LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: DDR
The company is included in ASX300, ALL-ORDS and ALL-TECH

In Brief has three analyst favourites this week across a cross section of sectors and themes.

-US competitor supports outlook optimism for Dicker Data
-A favourable and earnings accretive acquisition for SRG Global
-Too many concerns holding back ResMed shares, says Canaccord

By Danielle Ecuyer

This week’s quote comes from Nilesh Jasani from Geninnov

“There is a certain rhythm to progress, a pattern often best captured not in dense treatises but in simple, slightly odd sayings.

“They are the sort of thing one might overhear in a quiet London pub, where understatement is the highest form of wit; or perhaps, the sort of profound thought that only strikes after consuming one’s body weight in Diwali sweets, forcing the mind to find a new use for all that energy.

“We want innovations to be a grand, singular symphony. The reality, as one discovers, is a cacophony of like four different string quartets playing four different tunes in four different rooms, all at once.”

Peer review promising for Dicker Data 

Synnex Corporation, a US information and communications technology distributor which offers hardware, software, cloud services and the like, reported a record 3Q2025 result which included a relatively robust contribution from its Asia-Pacific and Japanese businesses.

Synnex also highlighted a rise in spending from its small-medium business (SMB) and its managed service provider operation (MSP). Petra Capital explains it is not clear whether this applies to A&NZ or to what extent.

While software and PCs, the latter due to a refresh rather than AI upgrade, were the main sectoral drivers of sales growth, SMB and MSP contributed with enterprise noted as “stable”. No regional comments across the segments were offered.

The latest outlook offered by ASX-listed Dicker Data ((DDR)) provided 2025 revenue growth of 10%-13% which, the analyst explains, is above system growth of 8.7%. Petra forecasts Dicker Data to announce gross revenue growth of 8.7% in 2H2025, bringing 2025 growth to 11.9% on the prior year.

Dicker Data’s outlook update aligns with Synnex’s commentary and results. Petra is “upbeat” about the company’s growth potential, boosted by its robust competitive position in A&NZ and good exposure to any recovery in IT spending for the SMB sector.

The stock is Buy rated with a $11.85 target price.

FNArena’s daily monitored brokers have a consensus target price of $9.983 with latest updates at the August earnings report. Two Buy-equivalent ratings combine with one Hold.

Moelis upbeat on SRG Global

Moelis is the latest broker to join the positive chorus around SRG Global’s recent acquisition, Total Tams Pty Ltd, for -$85m in consideration.

Tams is an end-to-end diversified marine infrastructure services partner with over twenty-five years of history behind it. The company is detailed as having expertise in design, engineering, construction, maintenance, and remediation services.

The geographic exposure is described as “strategic,” including Pilbara, Fremantle, and Gladstone, and encompasses sectoral exposure to the resources, energy, transport, water and defence sectors. This includes 500-plus employees, viewed as “skilled technical specialists,” and a well-regarded management team.

The acquisition price infers a prospective FY26 earnings (EBIT) multiple of 3.2 times, and SRG anticipates it will be around 25% accretive to FY26 EPS pre-synergies.

Funding is split between $57.3m of on-balance-sheet cash and available debt facilities, while 13.9m shares or $27.7m of SGR shares will be issued to the vendors with a two-year earn-out opportunity.

The earn-out is set at 100% of Tams’ annual earnings (EBITDA) above $30m and up to $40m, and 50% of Tams’ annual earnings (EBITDA) above $40m in each of the following two years.

SRG’s pro forma gearing is estimated at only 0.3 times in FY26.

The analyst commends the strategic rationale of the acquisition with two very aligned and complementary businesses that have the potential for cross-selling opportunities across both new and existing customers.

Moelis raised its EPS forecasts by 21% for FY26, 30% for FY27, and 32% for FY28. A Buy rating is maintained. Target price rises to $2.81 from $2.

Daily monitored brokers have been no less enthusiastic about the acquisition, with four equivalent Buy ratings including one upgrade from Accumulate, with a consensus target price of $2.975.

Competition concerns overblown for ResMed?

Canaccord Genuity came up with a very catchy title for its research update on ResMed ((RMD)): “Buy ResMed, You’ll sleep better.”

Can’t argue with that proposition for your average apnoea sufferer. But of course, the analyst is inferring a lot more in recognition of the almost -8% pullback in the stock since late July from around $45.

Tackling investors’ concerns head on, three main issues were identified which seemingly are keeping the stock “range bound”.

The key issue is around the extent to which gross margins can rise, which in large part reflects the medtech’s ability to retain its dominant market share position at an estimated 86% in FY26 due to the feedback loop to pricing and possible competitive pressures.

Importantly, Dutch competitor Philips has not been operating in the US market for much longer than expected, still banned from selling products. This is believed to have had two impacts:

The analyst proposes the threat of the second-largest supplier of equipment coming back to market has deferred expansion and investment from the smaller number three, four, and five manufacturers into scaling up capacity. ResMed in comparison scaled up capacity straight away.

Secondly, the customers for durable medical equipment are viewed as liking the idea of Philips returning, although increasingly it is likely the key competitor will not be returning in any substantial way.

Thirdly, few are discussing how ResMed has acted both reasonably and not abused its market power.

The CMS is likely to propose a restart of competitive bidding for 2026, which allows durable medical equipment suppliers to submit bids to supply CPAP machines at the lowest possible price.

The CMS then applies those bids to reset reimbursement rates under Medicare. Historically, it has resulted in price pressure on manufacturers like ResMed because the durable medical equipment suppliers had less reimbursement revenue to spend.

Canaccord believes the threat of supply instability in isolation will influence CMS towards retaining the existing situation, and as such the pricing outlook for ResMed remains supportive of a 63% gross margin even without any price rises.

The pricing outlook is described as the best in a decade and feasibly could underwrite a 65% gross margin given the right circumstances, such as competitive bidding not eventuating. The analyst posits “competitive” has a very different meaning in 2025 than it had in 2013, given what has transpired in the US obstructive sleep apnoea market.

ResMed is forecast to report FY26 non-GAAP EPS around US$11 per share which is in line with consensus and represents 15% growth on the previous year.

For the upcoming Q1 update, non-GAAP EPS is forecast at US$2.51 versus consensus at US$2.54, as the analyst acknowledges to be more conservative on US mask growth at 12% while also anticipating a slower rise in gross margin improvement.

ResMed’s current gross margin guidance is between 61%-63%.

Canaccord’s target is $50 with a maintained Buy rating on the stock.

Daily monitored brokers have a consensus target of $49.15 with six Buy-equivalent ratings.

The author owns ResMed shares.

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