Uranium Week: Prices Reset Lower In February

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This story features BOSS ENERGY LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BOE
The company is included in ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

The U308 spot market price retreated over February, but remains up almost 32% over the year past as term demand advances.

• Working capital swings mask Boss Energy's operational progress as Honeymoon shifts beyond its higher-grade core
• Paladin edges closer to 2031 production while brokers question valuation stretch
• ?Spot U308 retreats to US$85/lb as delivery location spreads widen and term demand builds

By Danielle Ecuyer

Boss Energy to become more leveraged to U308 prices

Canaccord Genuity stridently asserts the interim results for Boss Energy ((BOE)) do not accurately reflect the operational performance at Honeymoon’s ramp up due to the intersection of three factors, which have created some reported earnings volatility.

The sale of previously purchased U308, as well as the mismatch between production and shipments, were two factors.

Then there is, as also highlighted by Ord Minnett, Boss’s one-off items including enCore Energy’s 100klb U308 loan repayment, which was not recognised as revenue.

Both the enCore item and the inventory unwind from strategic stockpile sales had nil impact on 1H26 cash flow.

Going into the second half, Canaccord highlights Boss has now sold all its purchased U308, and inventory stands at a “healthy” level.

Management anticipates future sales will more accurately mirror produced U308, which is far more impactful for earnings.

The central Honeymoon area is still producing well, as confirmed in the December quarter update. However, now that wellfields B1 to B5 are all operating, the higher-grade uranium in this original zone is gradually being used up. As production continues, the grade in this area will naturally decline over time.

The next stage of development is wellfield B6, which will be the first wellfield in the Far East Kalkaroo area. First production from this zone was previously expected in 3Q2026. This marks the beginning of a shift away from the original central zone toward new parts of the deposit.

The newer areas do not appear to have the same consistent high grades as the central domain.

Boss is now looking at adjusting how it develops these wellfields. Instead of using tighter well spacing, the company is considering wider well patterns like those used successfully in Kazakhstan. Wider spacing means fewer wells are needed, which can reduce upfront capital costs and help optimise reagent use.

To support this change in approach, management plans to complete a scoping study in the current March quarter, followed by a new feasibility study in the third quarter. These studies will assess the economics and technical design of developing the newer zones and outline the next phase of production at Honeymoon.

For Ord Minnett, the uncertainty around the wide wellfield spacing strategy remains a key concern, rating the stock as a Sell with a $1.50 target price.

Shaw and Partners points to FY26 guidance, which is unchanged at 1.6Mlb at AISC of US$41 to US$45/lb, with FY27 production also guided to 1.6Mlb at costs around 15% higher, and ascribes a Buy (High risk) rating with a $3.15 target, while acknowledging the ongoing assessment of Honeymoon.

Canaccord analysts take the view the definitive feasibility study will reveal higher average all-in sustaining costs at Honeymoon.

Conclusion: Boss is increasingly becoming more of an “operating leverage play”, where U308 production is very price dependent. Canaccord rates the stock a Speculate Buy with an unchanged $2.80 target price.

While finding the interim results “lacklustre” Bell Potter upgrades the stock to Buy from Hold due to the deterioration in the share price. Target set at $1.95.

In other earnings reports, Silex Systems ((SLX)) released its 1H26 result (net loss -$17.9m) and has provided an operational update. The key news, Shaw and Partners notes, was the Global Laser Enrichment (GLE) JV with Cameco has achieved Technology Readiness Level 6.

This has paved the way for full commercialisation of the technology at the Paducah Laser Enrichment Facility.

Silex is focused on the commercialisation of its laser isotope separation technology. The primary commercial application of the technology is the production of different grades of fuel for the nuclear power industry, Shaw explains.

Silex is one of Shaw and Partners’ top small cap ideas for 2026. Buy and $12.80 target retained.

Paladin Energy ((PDN)) was in the news for receiving Saskatchewan ministerial approval for the environmental impact study at the Patterson Lake South (PLS) project, which Macquarie views as an important milestone.

It is very early days, but the provincial approval places Paladin well to work towards its targeted 2031 first production from PLS.

With the Langer Heinrich mine and plant running more smoothly, Canada is the key swing factor for the stock in terms of asset valuation.

Macquarie embraces the news and raises its share price target to $14.00 from $12.35, while retaining a Neutral rating.

Ord Minnett, in contrast, retains a more risk-off tone on the stock, largely on valuation grounds.

Noting Saskatchewan approved the Environmental Impact Statement for the Patterson Lake South project, it can now advance to a Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission construction licence, a process taking up to two years and 60 days, implying first production by mid-2031, after a three-year build.

Although analysts describe the project as world class, producing 10-11mlb per year at 1.41% U3O8 and adding around $630m in annual free cash flow (FCF), major capex of -CAD$1.6bn and a lengthy approval timeframe are counters to the upbeat narrative.

This broker still feels Paladin stock’s 22x forward EV/EBITDA multiple is excessive and rates it as Sell with a $9.75 target price.

One well in Peninsula Energy’s ((PEN)) MU-4 has achieved a peak uranium grade of 352mg/l, and other wells are trending to over 100mg/l. It remains early days, but this is an extraordinarily encouraging start from MU-4, Canaccord Genuity suggests.

Peninsula has reaffirmed it remains on track to meet production guidance for 2026. While the broker remains cautious, elevated grades and flow rates lend themselves to a potential positive surprise.

The company has acknowledged the precipitation circuits are temporarily offline and are expected to take 6-8 weeks to resume operation due to faulty installation by the contractor.

The rectification costs are a warranty claim under the contract, and the contractor is working with the company to resolve the issue as expeditiously as possible. Canaccord retains Buy and a $1.53 target.

In other news, French nuclear company Orano announced better-than-expected 2025 results, and India’s Department of Atomic Energy has entered into a U308 supply agreement with Kazatomprom for many of India’s nuclear power plants.

Market power shifts to sellers in term markets

Turning to the month of February, as noted by industry consultants TradeTech, the weekly U308 spot price retraced -US$15/lb to US$85/lb, including a decline of -US$4.50/lb last week, or -5%.

That compares to the January 29 high of US$101.50/lb, and a decline of -US$16.50 from that point.

Over the course of last week, eight transactions were conducted on the spot market, with traders, financial entities and producers all active in the market.

TradeTech highlights by week’s end, uranium spot prices showed a wide gap depending on delivery location.

Such price differences occasionally occur and are often driven by geopolitical or trade concerns, including potential tariffs or sanctions, which can create pricing spreads between ConverDyn, Cameco and Orano. When these concerns ease, prices at different locations typically return to similar levels.

At times, the gap can also reflect practical issues, such as storage capacity limits at a specific converter or the need for material at a certain site to meet conversion contract requirements. The current range of prices suggests several of these factors are influencing the market simultaneously.

Offers for delivery at ConverDyn remain high at $88.00/lb U3O8, prompting buyers to favour lower-priced material at Cameco. Four transactions totalling 400,000lb U3O8 were completed.

Over February, 38 transactions for over 4mlbs of U308 were recorded, with the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (SPUT) very active in the market. The trust acquired 1.9mlbs and has US$100.4m on hand as at February 28.

In the term market, TradeTech points to rising interest from utilities seeking to cover their supply requirements in the early 2030s, with momentum shifting to a seller’s market from a buyer’s market.

The TradeTech Mid-term U308 price indicator came in at US$88/lb from US$93/lb on January 31, and the Long-term price indicator remained stable at US$90/lb.

Short interests in the week that was:

Boss continues to be the most shorted stock on the ASX at 16.33%, down -0.7% on the week.

Paladin sits in thirteenth position, a smidgen higher over the week at 9.63% from 9.68%.

Silex is in eighteenth position, down slightly to 8.69% from 8.98%, while Lotus Resources’ ((LOT)) shorts are up 0.5% to 5.96% and Bannerman Energy’s ((BMN)) down -0.59% to 4.01%.

For more reading on U308 at FNArena see:

https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/02/24/uranium-week-burgeoning-supercycle/

https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/02/10/uranium-week-volatility-kicks-up-a-gear/

https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/02/03/uranium-week-back-above-us100lb/

https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/01/27/uranium-week-no-shortage-of-bullish-sentiment/

https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/01/20/uranium-week-2026-off-to-the-races/

Uranium companies listed on the ASX:

ASX CODE	DATE	LAST PRICE	WEEKLY % MOVE	52WK HIGH	52WK LOW	P/E	CONSENSUS TARGET	UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE
1AE	27/02/2026	0.0800	-22.00%	$0.16	$0.03
AEE	27/02/2026	0.1400	– 6.67%	$0.28	$0.10
AGE	27/02/2026	0.0500	– 9.80%	$0.06	$0.02		$0.070	40.0%
AKN	27/02/2026	0.0100	0.00%	$0.01	$0.01
ASN	27/02/2026	0.0600	7.27%	$0.13	$0.04
BKY	27/02/2026	0.5600	– 2.63%	$0.70	$0.37
BMN	27/02/2026	4.6500	7.39%	$4.96	$1.76		$6.175	32.8%
BOE	27/02/2026	1.6400	– 4.66%	$4.75	$1.07	11.6	$1.814	10.6%
BSN	27/02/2026	0.0300	10.34%	$0.08	$0.01
C29	27/02/2026	0.0400	18.18%	$0.06	$0.01
CXO	27/02/2026	0.2600	26.83%	$0.36	$0.06		$0.350	34.6%
CXU	27/02/2026	0.0300	14.29%	$0.04	$0.01
DEV	27/02/2026	0.2500	– 1.96%	$0.28	$0.07
DYL	27/02/2026	2.6300	– 0.75%	$2.97	$0.75	-101.2	$2.290	-12.9%
EL8	27/02/2026	0.3700	0.00%	$0.50	$0.19
GUE	27/02/2026	0.0700	0.00%	$0.09	$0.05
HAR	27/02/2026	0.1500	11.11%	$0.25	$0.04
I88	27/02/2026	0.1400	3.57%	$0.76	$0.08
KOB	27/02/2026	0.0400	7.32%	$0.09	$0.03
LAM	27/02/2026	0.8800	3.55%	$0.93	$0.56
LOT	27/02/2026	2.1900	3.79%	$3.20	$1.56		$3.533	61.3%
MEU	27/02/2026	0.1400	7.41%	$0.19	$0.03
NXG	27/02/2026	18.0300	2.21%	$20.47	$6.44	-172.4	$21.100	17.0%
ORP	27/02/2026	0.0700	1.52%	$0.07	$0.02
PDN	27/02/2026	13.3900	– 4.01%	$14.44	$3.93	118.8	$13.179	– 1.6%
PEN	27/02/2026	0.7500	– 5.66%	$1.08	$0.28		$1.930	157.3%
SLX	27/02/2026	6.9000	– 1.57%	$10.85	$2.28	-86.3	$12.800	85.5%
TOE	27/02/2026	0.5500	3.77%	$0.63	$0.15
WCN	27/02/2026	0.0200	6.25%	$0.04	$0.01

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