Rudi Interviewed: Diary Of A Successful Investor

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This story features CSL LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CSL
The company is included in ASX20, ASX50, ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

In today's Edition:

• Interview: The Diary of a Successful Investor

Key items of interview:

• A Series Of Lucky Accidents
• Discovering All-Weather Stocks
• Managing Risk
• What's Happening With CSL?
• Books To Read
• Outlook For Equities
• People vs Corporate Quality
• Information vs Noise
• Find Thou Self
• Three Stocks To Like

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor

The Switzer Financial Group recently launched a new series of interviews, The Diary of a Successful Investor.

The inaugural interview, published on September 23, 2025, features FNArena Founder and Editor, Rudi Filapek-Vandyck.

The interview is available on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=75HCuFqCFbc

Below is an edited transcript.

Peter Switzer: thanks for joining us on the very first episode of The Diary of a successful investor.

Rudi Filapek-Vandyck: I am stunned. That title. I mean; the pressure on my shoulders.

Peter: Rudi, you’ve never been boastful about your investing, but I’ve known you a long time, and given what you’ve predicted and like me, you’re not always right, but certainly some of your big calls have been fantastic.

What you’ve learned over the years is what I want you to share with others today in this interview.

I’ll kick off in a more predictable way than I usually do with you, apart from saying if I can’t interview Charlie Munger, as Charlie’s now passed away, and I can’t interview Warren Buffett because he’s a little bit too hard to access, I want to do Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, so thanks for joining us.

Rudi: At least I’m more accessible than the other guys you were mentioning.

A Series Of Lucky Accidents

Peter: Rudi, what first drew you to investing and how did your approach evolve?

Rudi: Not that long ago I described my entrance and development in investment as basically a series of accidents, and luckily me, and maybe for other people as well, a lot of those accidents have worked out quite well.

I originally started off as a journalist who would simply chase news, and that wasn’t necessarily in finance.

By pure and sheer luck, unplanned, I ended up on the business pages of a newspaper, and ultimately, I became the editor of an online news service in Amsterdam.

From there onwards, I developed my knowledge of markets, and ultimately, I ended up in Australia, where, by accident again, I founded FNArena.

It took until the GFC for me to change my focus towards which companies are better than others. And from then onwards, I developed a specific focus on high quality companies, which I’ve ultimately dubbed All Weather Stocks.

That has ultimately developed in an alternative view on the market, and I don’t think that angle is wrong.

Let me put it this way; it definitely has taught me a lot. One of the things that has taught me is that simply because the share price looks cheap, it’s not necessarily a good investment.

Nowadays I tend to emphasise more the quality of a company than the cheapness of the share price.

Peter: Rudi, was it your intention to create a business like FNArena that would effectively service your own investment goals as well? Or did you create the business and realise what you created was going to help you become a better investor?

Rudi: The latter. As I said, it’s a series of lucky accidents, it just developed the way it did.

It was never the plan that FNArena would manage its own portfolio, or that we would even develop our own philosophy on investing.

Originally, it just started off as reporting on what the stockbrokers were doing, and from there onwards, it just developed into something more.

It wasn’t planned, but that doesn’t mean I’m unhappy with the end outcome.

Discovering All-Weather Stocks

Peter: Was there a defining moment or early investment that ultimately shaped your thinking, particularly around the All Weather approach to investing?

Rudi: I’ve witnessed the NASDAQ meltdown in 2000 and that left an impression on me. I’ve seen the Super Cycle coming to its end as well in commodities.

But the deepest impression on me was the GFC, where you would see the majority of the market going down by -50% and more.

That definitely left a big impression on me. Companies that previously were riding high on investor optimism, they were absolutely annihilated subsequently.

How bad things became, and how little foresight, how little knowledge there was amongst investors about what was happening in the United States and what was causing the trouble.

It taught me a lot and from that the All-Weathers were born.

Peter: It’s funny because around the GFC, where you and I got closer because you’re on my TV show, and we’re both trying to work out what was going to happen.

I’m sure you’ve had the same kind of experience, but the person who taught me more about what was likely to happen was someone who’s not really a stock market groupie like you and me, it was Phil Ruthven. You remember Phil who started IBIS World?

Rudi: yes.

Peter: Phil is a great analyst of the historical trends of businesses. He came on the show and I remember him saying the historical nature of stock markets is that they do recover. He gave me sort of parameters of times, and he pretty well got it right.

When that March of 2009 bounce started happening, he was on the money. He made the point: it’s going to be our top 30 companies that will be the fast rebounders.

I found that really interesting and it made me look more outside of just the market.

People you and I often talk to, there are other people who can offer insights that you would never thought of before.

I’m sure you, over time, have learned that as well. You have to look beyond the people inside the industry.

Rudi: That’s one thing I can definitely vouch for. You have to have a very broad view. Knowledge and insights can come from all corners. It doesn’t have to be from the usual sources.

One thing maybe to point out here as well; Matthew Kidman, which, I’m sure you know, he published a book in 2008 from memory.

The last chapter of that book is where he asks the question: what makes a bear market and when will it end?

I particularly paid close attention to that. He was pretty close on the mark on when it would end.

I’ve always been surprised by those predictions that come true.

Peter: I think the book was called Bulls, Bears…

Rudi: And a croupier.

Managing Risk

Peter:  That’s right. So let’s go to my next related question: how do you personally approach and or manage risk in your portfolios?

Rudi: There are a lot of insights I gather from reading a lot, so I’m piggybacking on other people’s experiences. But nothing beats real experience when you manage your own portfolio.

So I’ve added real time, real life experiences to the insights I picked up from elsewhere.

I try to literally not take on risk. I try to manage it, and that, for example, has led to the fact that I always have some exposure to gold.

When other people are asking me: do you think gold is going to US$4000 or is it going to US$3000, I don’t care, because to me, gold is insurance.

That’s one way of managing risk.

What it also taught me is that lots of things that people do are actually counterproductive. They’re not as smart as it might seem at face value.

A simple example: if I own shares in a particular company, and that company comes out with a big profit warning, its share price dives.

The last thing I do is immediately throwing more money at it.

A lot of people think that if the share price drops, you have to put more money in it. I have at least a few dozen examples where that would have bankrupted me.

In case it turns out to be the right thing to do, that has more to do with luck.

There are many other examples. You will hardly find me ever dabbling in micro cap stocks.

It’s fine for people to do so, but it just doesn’t suit my own risk profile.

I like to have a little bit more certainty, even though, at times, that is a very ephemeral, very naive proposition, because sometimes there is no certainty in the share market.

Nevertheless, I try to put the money where there is, at the very least, less uncertainty than there is in the most speculative corners of the market.

I’m very considerate in taking on new investments and adding to existing ones. And that’s not always dominated by what the share price does.

What’s Happening With CSL?

Peter: I have to ask you this question, because you and I have talked about this stock before. I bet you can even guess what I am about to ask you about.

Rudi: Something starting with a C?

Peter: Exactly right. What really annoys me is that you haven’t lost a hair of your head. What’s your current view on CSL ((CSL)), a company that both you and I’ve liked.

We know the recent report wasn’t as good as people might have expected, but I think a lot of my investor audience would love to know what your current thinking is.

Rudi: I recently gave a presentation in Canberra to members of the Australian shareholders Association (ASA), and no surprise, CSL was at the front among the questions.

I think I shocked a few people in the audience. I’ve also written to FNArena subscribers about this.

In general terms, just 10 seconds ago, when I said I didn’t throw more money at the share price that fell, CSL was the one that came to mind. I just didn’t name them.

I don’t believe that a weaker share price has now reduced the risk. I’ve been a shareholder in CSL for very long time. The portfolio made a lot of money out of it, although not in the past five years.

The August disappointment is probably the worst I’ve seen from CSL in at least the past two decades.

Clearly, they are struggling. There’s probably a multitude in factors at play. The one that comes to mind is a very erratic and unpredictable administration in the United States, but there’s also a healthcare department now that is, let’s just call it for what it is, anti vaccinations.

CSL, unfortunately for them, is the number two player in vaccinations in the world. So they’re under the pump.

There are other reasons as well, but it was a big disappointment in August. It definitely would have shocked quite a number of people, many institutional investors.

I’m not institutional, but I am with them on CSL; we felt quite comfortable holding the shares because management had guided they would get their margins back to pre-covid levels.

They’ve now abandoned that. They basically pulled the rug from under that and that’s very disappointing.

They obviously don’t do that without reason, but it has made me less comfortable now in predicting that CSL’s share price and their operations will recover anytime soon.

I think at the very least, they’re a bit in a pickle. Market sentiment now is extremely against them, which is what sometimes happens.

Let’s be honest. Peter, in the good times, there was probably 30% in the market that absolutely hated CSL because they didn’t understand it and the share price would perform year in-year out.

Those same people are still hating CSL today and there’s now even a larger group, because now a lot of people have lost money on the stock.

The shares will have to work through that. Management hopefully works very hard. I have not increased the holding. I had decreased the holding already in an earlier stage in the portfolio.

CSL has for a long time been the largest allocation in the portfolio that I run, but it no longer is. I still own shares, and I haven’t made up my mind on what to do.

I won’t be throwing more money at it anytime soon, because I think there’s still a risk that any sustainable recovery will take time.

There’s a lot of insecurity with the divestment, the spin off of Seqirus, the vaccines, whether they can do it or not, and it places a lot of question marks about the strategy and the progress they’ll be making.

Big question marks. The share price is cheap, that’s a given. But as we both know from experience and from history, share prices can remain cheap for quite a while.

The market will need some tangible turnaround proof. I don’t think we should expect any miracles.

Books To Read

Peter: What routines or habits help you stay informed and grounded. You’re a really grounded guy. You know that.

Rudi: When I get too excited, I take a cold shower. Sometimes I need to do that, proverbially.

I’ve obviously made my own basket of mistakes over the years, but in many cases, when I look back at my mistakes, I simply acted too quickly, without overthinking it more.

So I try not to act hastily in either direction. Sometimes it means I might have acted too slowly, but those things happen.

You just weigh up the fact that for all the opportunities you’ve missed, you’ve also missed out on a lot of oopsie doopsies, and they are often as valuable as the other options you have at your disposal.

From the seat I’m sitting on, as Editor of FNArena, there are a lot of expert voices out there that I have access to and that I consult on occasion.

I think about it, and I read. Sometimes these expert voices bring some calm into my nerves. That’s what we all need at times, isn’t it?

Peter: Can I just clarify: Did you say whoopsie doopsies or oopsie doopsies?

Rudi: I said oopsie doopsies.

Peter: Always wondered how to spell that if we ever decide to write this interview out. Are there any books or thinkers who deeply influenced your strategy?

Rudi: Yes, and they might come from unexpected corners. This harks to what you said earlier that sometimes the voices to learn from are not necessarily the voices in finance.

I would highly recommend the book written by Kahneman and Tversky. The title escapes me, but it’s an international bestseller.

I’m currently reading the books by Nassim Taleb; Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan and Antifragile.

In particular Antifragile I can recommend. These are not your typical finance books, but what they do is explain how we, humans, think. We think in the wrong way.

It makes you realise that often the most straightforward thoughts you might have about the share market, about companies, about investing, they’re simply wrong and that’s good to realise.

It doesn’t always mean that by thinking alternatively you get it right more often, but it helps with the thinking process.

It probably helps with avoiding lots of mistakes and with creating new angles to view things.

As I often say to people, the decision to invest in certain companies is often also related to how we view those companies and that sometimes requires taking a slightly different angle.

Peter: You remind me of what Charlie Aitken’s daughter said to him one day when they were walking through Bondi Junction.

She said, Daddy, I want to be a fund manager, just like you. He laughed and said, okay, well, what would you invest in if you were a fund manager?

This is a few years ago. She said, JB Hi-Fi ((JBH)), I love JB Hi-Fi for the things we buy. I love Bunnings ((WES)), for the sausage sizzle. And I like Baby Bunting ((BBN)) for all the stuff we buy there for my little sister.

It was funny and that would have made a very good portfolio. I think.

Rudi: Absolutely. By the way, I just remembered the title of the book by Kahneman and Tversky, it’s Thinking, Fast and Slow. That’s a very good book.

Peter: And on Taleb, what is his first name?

Rudi: Nassim.

Peter: Yeah, he wrote The Black Swan. The only reason I never read that book, I concluded before I read it if you can’t see a black swan coming by definition, why would I read a book that would tell me how to identify something you can’t identify, but obviously you can.

Can you improve my knowledge on that?

Rudi: It’s essentially about risk management. What Taleb is trying to impress upon people, is that you should prepare for risk that may not have happened yet, but it will happen or might happen.

And when it does, at the very least you’re prepared, or you will benefit from it. And that’s basically the long and the short of the story.

Outlook For Equities

Peter: As a consequence of that, are you becoming more defensive in your portfolio as we are moving to 2026?

Donald Trump’s leadership is unusual for us. One of the things I found very hard is normal political leaders are a lot easier to read.

Are you becoming more defensive or do you think there’s more upside in the market?

Rudi: I have not become more defensive and I do think there’s more upside for the market.

My focus in particular over the past two years or so has shifted towards the megatrend we all have come to know as AI; Artificial Intelligence.

Earlier in the year, those companies got sold off in the share market, because, apparently, everyone was convinced there was a bubble about to burst.

I’ve steadfastly said to people: this is your chance to scoop up those share prices, because they have much, much, much further to run.

I have noticed that over the past year and a half or so, the number of Doom and Gloom predictions about the share market has accumulated to quite a mountain.

Maybe dangerous for me to say, but I do think those people will be proven wrong.

There is no bubble waiting to burst. I think the share market in six to 12 months’ time will be higher than where it is today.

Peter: Let’s go back to one part of the question I asked: are there any habits you’ve developed around selecting stocks?

Rudi: As I said earlier, I don’t make hasty decisions. I take my time.

I also tend not to worry about my portfolio on a daily basis and that serves me well.

Here’s a practical example: Earlier in the year, I added Macquarie Technology ((MAQ)) shares to the [All-Weather] portfolio because they had sold off; I thought to a ridiculously low level.

In August, the company came out with a very disappointing report. So those shares sold off again.

I had to remind myself why I bought the shares in the first place. First, there’s always disappointment, because you think that’s not why I own these shares, but I’ve taken my time and did nothing.

To my delight, those shares are back in an uptrend now. So that’s one practical, recent example how on many occasions doing nothing and staying the course is the best course of action.

I’ve seen this on multiple occasions, and that’s a lesson in itself. Do not simply throw money at a share price that drops, but you also don’t necessarily have to sell immediately, because of disappointment temporarily dominating the share price.

Peter: I think you might remember, Michael McCarthy was the guy who I put pressure on when BHP Group ((BHP)) shares were down at $14.

I asked Michael at the time: are you telling me, within three years, this is not going to be a $20 stock? If I can make $6 over 14 in three years, I’m happy to do it.

He kind of said, because of the short-term play, it wasn’t a buy, but on a three-year basis… The share price was $20 by the end of the year.

Rudi: Actually, I think you’re understating the story. I think the share price quickly went to $30.

Peter: You’re right. I remember boasting at the time, so you reminded me of being boastful.

Rudi: Coming back, also in combining a few of your questions here, one of the interesting things Taleb describes in his books is that we think in straight lines as human beings, but we have to accept things do not happen in a straight line.

That’s obviously where one of conflicts exists; when we watch our share prices, or when we have forecasts for our investments, they do not necessarily move into a straight line.

People vs Corporate Quality

Peter: Let’s just talk about when you like a company. Do you think about the people running the company or not?

I guess an interesting one is WiseTech Global ((WTC)). I think a lot of people think: I like the company, but I worry a little bit about Richard’s influence. He’s been very good in the past, if you ignore some of his social behaviour, but certainly as a leader of that business, he’s been very good. The business is good.

How do you deal with the people factor in your investing?

Rudi: I am well aware of human flaws. As humans we’re far from perfect. So in my research, I try to identify the companies, the companies itself, without anyone running it, and see whether they have a moat or whether they are deserving of the high quality, All Weather label.

My favourite expression in this regard is that I rather buy a company that can be run by an idiot, because at some stage it will be run by an idiot, and then it will still be a good company.

If you invest in a cyclical company or in a low quality company, and the tide turns, in both cases, no matter how good management is, they cannot turn against the tide.

But on the other end, if it’s a really great company, management almost has to do its best to destroy that company, or not do the right thing.

It’s the quality of the company itself that is at the core of my research.

Information vs Noise

Peter: How do you separate noise from signal in volatile markets?

Rudi: That’s definitely a difficult one. In times of social media, and dare I say also less experience amongst journalists in the mainstream media, so much noise is present on a daily basis.

There’s noise, there’s traders, there’s price charts, there’s the markets. Again, I’m a little bit privileged in that I have access to a lot of research.

Obviously, I tend to own companies for quite a while, which means you get to know those companies.

That’s one of the things I definitely appreciate over time. For example: I’ve owned ResMed ((RMD)), I don’t even know for how long, but for a very long time.

The same for TechnologyOne ((TNE)) and CSL as well. Over time, because you keep following those companies, you keep reading up on those companies, you read annual reports, etc, etc. you really get to know these companies.

There’s a value in that, because, over time, it teaches you, or at least it helps you, to distinguish noise from information that really counts.

On many occasions I see other people literally jumping around like a chicken without a head on its shoulders, but it’s just noise.

I know it impacts the share price at times, but whether that’s important or not is also dependent on what’s your horizon and what are you trying to achieve with your portfolio?

For example, the one thing I’ve also become more confident about over the years is: I don’t get freaked out now when the portion of short positions in some of my stocks is increasing.

Up to the point sometimes I actually start using some derogative words about those shorters, because I don’t think they know what they’re doing, or they’re doing it on different considerations then what is valuable to me as an investor in those companies.

Peter: And often their view is short term, where your view is long term. I totally get that. Rudi, what’s the belief you hold about investing that most would disagree with?

Rudi: A cheaper share price is not by definition a better investment. For me, that just stands.

The other thing is you have to build conviction. Getting a tip from someone else leaves you with little conviction because you are simply trusting on the other person that gave you the tip.

You have to build the conviction yourself, and that helps in times of turbulence and in times of lots of noise.

Know your companies and know why you own them.

Sometimes I own a company and the share price doesn’t move, but I’m confident because I know why I own that company.

Sometimes the reason can be because I realise it’s cheap, it pays a good dividend, and I realise this too shall pass.

So I can be patient while collecting the dividends and wait for better things to come.

Find Thou Self

Peter: What mindset shifts would you recommend to someone wanting to get better at investing?

Rudi: I think it starts with finding yourself in the share market.

What I’ve come to realise over the years is there’s no such thing as this is how you do it.

There’s no one strategy that works. The share market is like the Olympics in one stadium. If you’re good at throwing the javelin, don’t join the guys on the rugby field.

Find what works for you. That doesn’t have to be trading. It also doesn’t have to be value investing. It can be something completely else.

If you are the kind of person who likes the adrenaline from jumping on and off micro cap stocks that nobody else is interested in and you become really good at it, by all means, it’s not my thing, it’s not your thing Peter, but if it works for you…

On the other end, if you’re happy having your portfolio stacked with dividend stocks and you’re underperforming the market on a total return basis, but you’re happy with that, then again, right?

Do whatever makes you happy.

Three Stocks To Like

Peter: One last question, mate. And we know, I could ask you questions all day. What are the three stocks you like right now?

We’ve had reporting season. I too love buying quality companies, and the markets are bashing them up. But what are the three companies you think look really good value right now?

Rudi: The original knee jerk response is always to pick stocks whose share price has recently fallen.

I’m gonna pick one that hasn’t really fallen by a lot, and that’s Goodman Group ((GMG)).

I think people are still underestimating how high quality this company is, and how much money they’re going to make over the years ahead from this thing called data centres and AI.

 Again, people need to readjust their views. They need to understand how this business operates.

Goodman Group is valued as a growth stock now, and they will deliver.

One other that comes to mind, and they haven’t reported in August, but they will report in about six or seven weeks from now, is TechnologyOne.

A lot of people can’t get their head around the valuation, the share price, you name it.

But there’s very little doubt in my mind they will come out with a cracker result. That’s also the view by analysts such as Bell Potter.

It’s written in the stars, so to speak, so anything that happens to the share price, that’s simply on the basis of tech stocks in the US, or of sentiment locally.

The share price has come off. I think at one stage it temporarily reached $44 it’s now 37.

In percentage terms, that’s quite a lot. But I’m not worried, because I’ve owned this stock since forever.

And also that doesn’t really count. I keep owning this stock because I’m still confident in what lays ahead.

Let me pick another one… Okay, let’s pick Car Group ((CAR)).

Similar as with TechnologyOne, I think at one stage the share price was $44 [correction: it was $42] it has now gone to $37-$38.

It’s not a spectacular grower, but it’s in good nick. It’s doing all the right things at the moment. Its acquisition in the US, which met a lot of sceptics at first, is working out well.

It’s still in a very strong market positioning locally. Again, anything that happens to the share price is micro related. It’s speculation about valuations, interest rates, sentiment, you call it.

But there’s absolutely nothing wrong with that company. I think it’ll be a good performer going forward.

Peter: Rudi, thanks for joining us. I know there’ll be a lot of older investors who, on their deathbed, will be thanking God and Rudi Filapek-Vandyck for the divine inspiration you’ve given them over the years. Thanks for joining us on the program.

Rudi: It was a pleasure. Peter.

(Do note that, in line with all my analyses, appearances and presentations, all of the above names and calculations are provided for educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions.)  

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