Weekly Reports | 10:00 AM
Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.
By Mark Woodruff
Guide:
The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, Shaw and Partners and UBS.
For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.
Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.
Summary
Period: Monday January 19 to Friday January 23, 2026
Total Upgrades: 20
Total Downgrades: 14
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 63.31%; Hold 29.08%; Sell 7.61%
For the week ending Friday, January 23, 2026, FNArena tracked twenty upgrades and fourteen downgrades for ASX-listed companies from brokers monitored daily.
Buy ratings, already at historically elevated levels, climbed further to 63.31% of total ratings, with 18 of the week’s 20 upgrades shifting to Buy; Neutral/Hold and Sell stood at 29.08% and 7.61%, respectively.
While these ratings upgrades marginally favoured Industrials, increases in average target prices were confined to the Mining sector as a range of brokers raised commodity price forecasts and lifted forecasts heading into the February reporting season.
Nine of the ten increases in average earnings forecasts in the table below also pertain to mining stocks, led by IGO Ltd along with fellow lithium producers Liontown and PLS Group.
Last week, Citi raised its FY26 and FY27 spodumene (SC6) price forecasts by 62% and 13%, respectively, to US$1,680/t and US$1,330/t, after highlighting a price rise of 165% since mid-October to the current spot price of US$2,200/t.
PLS Group is viewed as most likely to capture the upside from higher pricing as the group can restart the Ngungaju joint venture at the Pilgangoora lithium project in four months at a low capital cost.
In contrast, the broker noted Liontown's plan to ramp Kathleen Valley to 4mtpa of spodumene production is expected to take between 12-18 months.
IGO Ltd continues to focus on the successful ramp-up of CGP-3 before construction commences on CGP-4. Upside risk is seen for the share price if the miner can resolve the TLEA JV structure.
TLEA is the joint venture between IGO Ltd (49%) and China’s Tianqi Lithium (51%) which owns and operates the Greenbushes lithium mine in Western Australia and the Kwinana lithium hydroxide refinery.
Three brokers weighed in with higher targets for Coronado Global Resources last week given the 17% rise in premium low-volume hard coking coal prices to around US$235/t since the start of December, as noted by UBS.
Metallurgical coal prices have risen due to supply challenges from Queensland and more stable demand, explained the analysts.
This broker upgraded its rating to Neutral from Sell after setting a target of 44c, up from 25c. Hold-rated Ord Minnett and Bell Potter also raised their respective targets to 48c and 47c from 38c and 33c.
On the back of higher coal pricing, Whitehaven Coal appears second on the earnings upgrade table below.
Positive December quarter trading updates for gold miners Evolution Mining and Bellevue Gold resulted in higher average target prices.
Regarding Evolution Mining, Morgans noted a strong operational performance amid higher gold and copper prices, boosting cash flow and balance sheet strength.
Management also lowered cost (AISC) guidance by -6% due to by-product credits and cost management.
Bell Potter highlighted the benefits from copper, which differentiate the company from most peers, supporting expectations of ongoing relative outperformance as the market catches on.
Bellevue Gold's pre-released December quarter production report came in slightly below expectations. UBS points to stockpile growth and delays to obtaining higher grades.
Costs (AISC) of $2,989/oz were better than anticipated by the broker, which boosted cash on hand, while gold on hand increased to $165m, up $9m on the prior quarter.
Management retained FY26 guidance for production, costs, and capex growth.
The broker flagged a pickup in exploration in 2H26 and FY27, with more drilling and exploration updates likely.
The average earnings forecast for Telix Pharmaceuticals rose by around 16% last week following a trading update for the fourth quarter of 2025.
As noted at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/01/22/focus-on-telix-guidance-post-annus-horribilis/ management attained the lower end of upgraded expectations, which was insufficient to boost investor sentiment, though signs are emerging of improving metrics around prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA) pricing and volumes.
On the negative side of the ledger, wellbeing and online safety company Qoria heads up the tables for negative change to average target and earnings forecasts following a disappointing December quarter update.
Exit annual recurring revenue came in -4% below Bell Potter’s forecast, mainly due to a larger-than-expected forex headwind. Cash receipts and operating cash flow also missed expectations on lower receipts and higher marketing spend.
While management reiterated FY26 guidance, the broker highlighted current spot rates imply ongoing forex pressure unless the Australian dollar weakens.
Despite the disappointing update, Ord Minnett felt Qoria is well placed for the second half of FY26 based on a robust pipeline. Undervaluation relative to peers was also noted.
ARB Corp, which designs, manufactures, and distributes four-wheel-drive accessories for off-road and recreational vehicles, appears second on the negative change to target price list.
First half FY26 underlying profit before tax missed the consensus forecast by -14% due to weaker sales and margin pressure, explained Morgans, with a sharp second quarter deterioration across all divisions.
Aftermarket softness reflects weaker new vehicle sales, noted the broker, while slowing export growth is a concern ahead of tougher second half comparisons.
Export sales grew 8.8% year-on-year, below Macquarie’s expectation, though the key US market remained strong, rising by 26%.
Particularly in relation to the negative surprise from exports, the analyst at Morgan Stanley is seeking more details at the first half results on February 24.
The average earnings forecast for Lynas Rare Earths fell by -14% on a production miss due to power outages in Kalgoorlie and planned maintenance in Kuantan, Bell Potter explained.
More positively, brokers generally raised their targets thanks to higher-value NdPr inventory sales which lifted average rare earth oxide prices.
Outperform-rated Macquarie highlighted management is strategically seeking secure sales contracts with customers outside of Japan and China who are prepared to pay higher prices outside of the Asian metals index.
Upgrade
AMCOR PLC ((AMC)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 6/0/0
Following a review of the packaging sector ahead of the February reporting season, Ord Minnett upgraded Amcor to Buy from Hold on valuation and improving earnings outlook.
The broker highlights consensus for earnings forecasts are currently sitting at the low end of guidance.
While EPS estimates are unchanged post 5-for-1 share consolidation, potential capital returns and brighter-than-expected earnings support a higher valuation, the broker explains.
Target lifted to $73.50 from $70.50, after also accounting for a higher risk-free rate of 4.5% from 4.0% into the models.
BOSS ENERGY LIMITED ((BOE)) Upgrade to Overweight from Underweight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 3/3/1
Morgan Stanley's forecasts for Boss Energy's Honeymoon production and sales in the December quarter are slightly above consensus as contracting activity lifts on stronger uranium pricing. The broker expects 410Klbs vs the company's 357klbs production flagged on December 10.
The forecast for Honeymoon costs is -2% below consensus but up q/q due to higher reagent use as new columns ramp up.
Key watch points include updates on the revised wide-spaced wellfield design and progress at Gould’s Dam and Jason’s deposits.
Rating upgraded to Overweight from Underweight. Target $2.05. Industry View: Attractive.
BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED ((BOQ)) Upgrade to Buy from Sell by UBS .B/H/S: 3/2/1
UBS notes the 2026 outlook for Australian banks supports consensus earnings growth of 6%, but valuations remain 40% above historical averages, limiting further re-rating.
The broker reckons cost control will be critical, noting FY26 consensus is for -0.6% y/y fall, with essential tech spend offset by rising staff costs driven by wage inflation and workforce mix changes. Likely interest rate rises could boost net interest margins.
Simplification, strategy execution, profit focus and balance sheet de-risking have improved Bank of Queensland's valuation outlook, the broker highlights. More efficient capital use is expected to lift returns over time.
Double upgrade to Buy from Sell. Target rises to $7.50 from $6.75, though no change to forecasts.
CHALICE MINING LIMITED ((CHN)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 4/0/1
UBS upgrades Chalice Mining to Buy from Neutral with a higher target of $2.75 from $1.75.
The analyst points to the scaled back, simplified plan at Gonneville, which was announced late 2025 and was likely lower than market expectations. In contrast, the broker sees possible upside in Chalice's "bottom of cycle" plan, both in scale and through operational enhancements.
Current forecasts align with pre-feasibility study outcomes, but UBS believes there is potential for metallurgical improvements as well as a “bullish” outlook for commodity prices.
With years still to production, the stock's valuation remains geared to the assumed long-term palladium price of US$1,400/oz.
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