Weekly Reports | 10:00 AM
Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.
By Mark Woodruff
Guide:
The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, Shaw and Partners and UBS.
For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.
Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.
Summary
Period: Monday January 26 to Friday January 30, 2026
Total Upgrades: 24
Total Downgrades: 26
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 63.23%; Hold 28.72%; Sell 8.05%
For the week ending Friday, January 30, 2026, FNArena tracked twenty-four upgrades and twenty-six downgrades for ASX-listed companies from brokers monitored daily.
All ten of the average target price increases in the table below relate to the Mining sector, yet the sector is also responsible for most falls in average earnings forecasts for the week, with Coronado Global Resources appearing in both tables.
As explained at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/01/30/coronados-fate-lays-with-coal-prices/, Coronado’s December quarter update revealed ‘misses’ against consensus forecasts of between -6-7% for run-of-mine, production, and sales.
Macquarie raised its target for the coal company to 40c from 25c thanks to a higher valuation multiple, while UBS set a target of 53c, up from 44c, and upgraded to Buy from Neutral given a better risk/reward outlook due to improved operational resilience and more clarity around the outlook.
Average current financial year earnings forecasts for Coronado, Whitehaven Coal and Stanmore Resources fell by -29%, -19%, and -12%, respectively.
Analysts observed a strong December quarter operational performance by Whitehaven and believe FY26 guidance is on track. Three brokers downgraded their ratings as the share price had risen 21% since early December and 34% over the last three months.
Stanmore delivered record December quarter results across run-of-mine, saleable product and product sales while dealing with unseasonally high rainfall. The percentage fall in the company’s average 2025 forecast earnings was exaggerated by the small numbers involved.
Both Ord Minnett and Morgans raised their targets for Stanmore, with Morgans downgrading its rating to Trim from Buy.
Iluka Resources suffered the largest fall in average earnings forecast (-71% for FY25) following a mixed December quarter result as weaker realised prices weighed on revenue and FY26 volume guidance came in less than expected.
Morgan Stanley explained December quarter pricing for zircon and rutile disappointed due to Chinese discounting and product mix, offsetting much of the volume upside.
Ord Minnett suggested management will need to raise equity to deal with the current debt overhang, as there is scant cash flow from the operations at prevailing prices.
Average earnings forecasts for copper producer AIC Mines and fuel and convenience retailer Ampol also fell by -38% and -34%, respectively.
Copper production for AIC was around -13% below Ord Minnett’s expectations due to lower throughput. While leaving its target price unchanged, the broker explained disappointment was more than offset by higher gold output at the Cracow operation in central Queensland, along with improved group costs and capital spending.
While Ampol’s guidance for FY25 earnings matched the consensus estimate, both Ord Minnett and Macquarie are concerned about the outlook for refining margins.
Turning to falls in average target prices, here medical technology company ImpediMed and graphite producer Syrah Resources top the list with falls of -16% and -12%, respectively.
Morgans explained ImpediMed's December quarter update showed ongoing weakness in US sales due to hospital budget constraints, with Bell Potter noting a slight decline in the installed base and churn rising to 4%.
For Syrah Resources, Macquarie envisages a more subdued near-term earnings outlook post the fourth quarter result. While production rose by 2%, sales were down -3%, with pricing missing consensus forecasts by -26% due to product mix changes, explained the broker.
Given Syrah owns one of the world's largest natural graphite operations, the analyst retained an Outperform rating.
On the flipside, Greatland Resources received a 25% increase in average target from brokers, with fellow gold miner Bellevue Gold’s target also around 12% higher. The latter was solely due to higher gold price forecasts by Ord Minnett (as part of a general commodity price review) with gold and copper estimates rising by 19% and 14%, respectively.
While Greatland’s earnings forecast also benefited from Ord Minnett’s higher pricing estimates, December quarter production was tracking at the upper end of guidance and at the lower end for costs.
Given such a strong production and cost performance in the financial year-to-date, analyst at Macquarie felt there could be an opportunity for management to increase production guidance, reduce cost guidance, or narrow the guidance range.
Citi could also envisage upside risks from future drilling at the West Dome Underground mining area and the Stage 2 extension at the Telfer operation in Western Australia.
Ord Minnett’s higher commodity pricing forecasts were also behind a rise in target price for Minerals 260 (gold and lithium), 29Metals (copper and zinc), and lithium miner PLS Group of 23%, 12%, and 10%, respectively.
This broker upgraded its rating for PLS Group to Accumulate from Hold. Morgans raised its target to $4.60 from $3.10 and upgraded to Trim from Sell following a spodumene price rally of 90% since mid-December and over 180% in the last six months.
The latter analyst noted batteries and energy systems offer another leg of demand on top of electric vehicles.
Peer Liontown also appears on the lists below for positive change to target price and earnings forecast following its December quarter update. Production, sales, and costs beat Macquarie’s expectations, though lower realised spodumene prices drove an around -8% revenue miss.
Management maintained FY26 guidance, with improving lithium prices expected to lift realised prices and cash flow. Bell Potter highlighted expansion options at Kathleen Valley (up to 4Mtpa) are being re-assessed for potential approval in mid-2026.
Only DigiCo Infrastructure REIT appears above Liontown on the earnings upgrade table after both Bell Potter and Macquarie reviewed their outlooks for the local REIT sector, though it should be noted the percentage increase is exaggerated by the small number involved.
Bell Potter's sector outlook concludes the outlook for REITs has weakened amid higher inflation expectations, rising bond yields and expectations of RBA rate hike(s).
As a counterbalance, it’s thought strong transaction activity, early cap rate compression, hedged debt costs, healthy balance sheets, and renewed M&A should support earnings resilience.
Macquarie noted higher bond yields with the rising risk the RBA raises rates in the first quarter of 2026, with global rates expected to move up in the second half of 2026.
Mineral Resources appears third on the target price table after its December quarter (2Q26) update beat Morgans’ expectations across Mining Services, lithium and iron ore. Strong execution, improved lithium pricing and lower-than-guided costs were the highlights, suggested the broker.
Woodside Energy is next with a 16% rise in average target price after December quarter sales volumes and revenue came in ahead of market expectations, while 2025 production came in modestly ahead of guidance.
Cost guidance for 2025 suggests upgrades to Ord Minnett’s underlying profit numbers, auguring well for the final dividend, according to the analyst.
Total Buy ratings for the eight stockbrokerages daily monitored by FNArena still sit at an historically elevated percentage of 63.29%.
With only 8.05% in Sell ratings, this leaves 28.72% for Neutral/Holds.
Upgrade
29METALS LIMITED ((29M)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/0/1
Ord Minnett brought forward its commodity price review (last done on December 12) after over 20% spike in key minerals, lifting 2026 forecasts. Silver led the gain, with 90% rise in the forecast to US$105/oz, gold up 19% and copper up 14%.
Lithium spodumene and copper remain the broker's key pick for 2026, supported by supply tightness and electrification demand, while iron ore and lithium forecasts are unchanged. A modest AUD appreciation only partly offsets the stronger outlook, with forecasts generally above market expectations.
No change to FY25-26 forecasts for 29Metals, while FY27 is lifted by 30.6%. Rating upgraded to Accumulate from Hold.
Target rises to 60c from 45c.
AUSTRALIAN ETHICAL INVESTMENT LIMITED ((AEF)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/0/0
Ord Minnett notes the -30% decline in Australian Ethical Investment's share price over the last three months. This followed lower-than-expected fund inflows, APRA directives on its manager selection methods in its superannuation business and further conditions on its licence.
Positively, member growth in the December quarter grew 15%, and the negatives are believed to be discounted in the share price.
Target price $7.50. The broker lowers EPS forecasts by -2.9% for FY26 and -3.3% for FY27.
ALKANE RESOURCES LIMITED ((ALK)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/0/0
Ord Minnett upgrades Alkane Resources to Buy from Accumulate with a higher target price of $2.05 from $1.70. This follows a robust 2Q26 report which was largely pre-released but came in above expectations, with production up 9% and costs down -8%, a beat.
Post a recent site visit to Costerfield, the analyst has a higher degree of confidence around the asset base and upgraded expectations for Tomingley to 85koz-plus by FY28.
The broker anticipates the discount the stock trades on will narrow as more investors outside of a top-100 mandate seek higher-margin spot price exposure and reliable gold production.
ARENA REIT ((ARF)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/2/0
Macquarie notes higher bond yields with the rising risk the RBA hikes rates in 1Q2026, with global rates expected to move up in 2H2026.
Arena REIT is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral on valuation grounds with the stock price down around -10% over the last three months. Target moved to $4 from $4.01.
The stock remains one of the preferred REITS.
BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED ((BOQ)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/3/0
Macquarie upgrades its sector view on banks to Neutral, noting favourable macro conditions support earnings upside despite elevated valuations.
Higher RBA interest rate expectations have improved bank funding costs and near-term margin outlook, the broker highlights, creating earnings upside risk for FY26 that is not yet fully reflected in consensus.
The broker lifted Bank of Queensland's FY26 EPS forecast by 4.4% and FY27 by 6.0%.
Target rises to $6.50 from $5.90. Rating upgraded to Neutral from Underperform.
This report was published January 22.
CHARTER HALL LONG WALE REIT ((CLW)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/4/0
Macquarie notes higher bond yields with the rising risk the RBA hikes rates in 1Q2026, with global rates expected to move up in 2H2026.
Charter Hall Long WALE REIT is upgraded to Neutral from Underperform based on valuation with a lower target of $3.96 from $4.20.
The analyst forecasts a further circa 17bps of cap rate expansion versus prior forecast.
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