Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes – 20-02-26

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This story features AUDINATE GROUP LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AD8
The company is included in ALL-ORDS and ALL-TECH

Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.

By Mark Woodruff

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, Shaw and Partners and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday February 16 to Friday February 20, 2026
Total Upgrades: 32
Total Downgrades: 16
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 65.34%; Hold 27.08%; Sell 7.58%

Nearing only the half-way point of the current reporting season (in terms of numbers of corporate updates), for the week ending Friday, February 20, 2026, FNArena recorded 32 upgrades and 16 downgrades across ASX-listed companies from brokers monitored daily.

After an ongoing share price slide due to the current global aversion to SaaS stocks, TechnologyOne received three upgrades to Buy or equivalent from separate brokers.

Upgraded guidance at the AGM last week was anticipated, according to UBS, yet still modestly exceeded forecasts by the broker and consensus.

Strong guidance for annual recurring revenue and profit growth reinforced this broker’s confidence in ongoing business momentum, particularly as TechOne is viewed as the most AI-defensive name under UBS’ coverage of large-cap SaaS exposures in Australia.

Ord Minnett agreed the stock is a defensive play against AI disruption.

Early monetisation of the company’s AI platform ‘Plus’ also provided comfort to the analysts, given AI could become a growth inflection point over time.

An uplift of 1.5% to the company’s profit growth rate, combined with a 38-year track record of delivery, also indicated to Macquarie valuation is currently attractive relative to history.

Another six companies secured dual ratings upgrades from separate brokers.

For four of these, Audinate Group, Baby Bunting, Eagers Automotive and Hub24, the improved ratings followed better-than-forecast earnings ‘beats’, as detailed in FNArena’s Corporate Results Monitor: 

https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/02/20/fnarena-corporate-results-monitor-20-02-2026/.

The remaining two upgrades for JB Hi-Fi and Whitehaven Coal are assigned an ‘in-line’ designation and a ‘miss’, respectively.

For Whitehaven, UBS explained the interim dividend was lower than expected. Higher Queensland costs over the medium term and normalising metallurgical and thermal coal markets also weigh on the broker’s investment case.

On the flipside, Aurizon Holdings and New Hope received two ratings downgrades apiece from analysts post interim results.

An explanation is warranted for New Hope as its quarterly result falls outside the scope of the Results Monitor.

Both Bell Potter and Morgans raised their respective targets for the coal miner, but the former downgraded its rating to Sell from Hold due to both recent share price strength and a “subdued” outlook for the thermal coal price.

While Morgans downgraded its rating to Hold from Accumulate, this analyst noted a compelling opportunity for more patient investors seeking exposure to long-life, low-cost and operationally stable coal assets.

Percentage declines in average target prices outweigh increases in the tables below, while, as per last week, increases in average earnings forecasts outpace reductions.

Corresponding with ‘misses’ in the Monitor, the top six declines in average target prices in the table below belong to Cochlear, Nick Scali, Beacon Lighting, Seek, Lovisa Holdings, and Zip Co.

While copper exposure AIC Mines tops both the positive target change and forecast earnings tables, the latter partly reflects small base numbers amplifying the percentage move, with the Monitor assigning an ‘in-line’ assessment.

Following AIC Mines on the average target price table are NRW Holdings and Bega Cheese with respective percentage gains of 16% and 9% after exceeding result expectations.

Copper and gold producer Aeris Resources follows, with its average target rising 9% after entering a binding scheme of arrangement to acquire 100% of ASX-listed Peel Mining via an all-scrip offer.

Bell Potter suggested this is a “strategic” acquisition to boost the mine life for Aeris’ 100%-owned Tritton copper mine in central western New South Wales.

Forecast earnings upgrades not addressed in the Monitor relate to uranium developer Deep Yellow and network provider Megaport.

Morgans updated its Deep Yellow forecasts, reflecting later first production at Tumas in Namibia and a stronger uranium outlook.

This broker pushed first output to the second half of FY28 and raised its bull-case uranium price to US$125/lb, increasing its target price for the company to $2.56 from $1.92.

Long-term upside is envisaged for Deep Yellow’s projects in Tumas and Mulga Rock in Western Australia.

The broker noted spot uranium has risen to around US$94/lb, with contracting activity supporting higher incentive pricing. 

As Megaport released its interim results on Friday, Citi and UBS only had time to deliver their first impressions.

UBS noted revenue and earnings came in higher than expected by consensus to the tune of 3% and 30%, respectively, with net revenue retention (NRR) improving 1% since November.

Annual recurring revenue growth remained steady at 19%, the analyst observed, while customer additions were modestly higher.

Revenue guidance of $264-270m (midpoint $267m versus UBS at $265m) reflects a lift to the bottom end from $260m previously, explained the broker, despite a -$9m FX headwind.

While the interim results surprised Citi on the upside, FY26 earnings guidance proved below expectation.

Partly owing to the current commodity price forecast upgrade cycle, both IGO Ltd and Rio Tinto appear in the forecast earnings upgrade table, despite their results disappointing.

Regarding negative change to forecast earnings, here the top six names are all explained by earnings reports below expectations, apart from the in-line result for Iluka Resources.

Each are discussed at length in the commentary section of the Monitor.

Total Buy ratings for the eight stockbrokerages daily monitored by FNArena still sit at an historically elevated percentage of 65.34%.

With only 7.58% in Sell ratings, this leaves 27.08% for Neutral/Holds.

Upgrade

AUDINATE GROUP LIMITED ((AD8)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Shaw and Partners and Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/2/0

Shaw and Partners highlights Audinate Group needs to accelerate platform growth to cover the investments being undertaken, with the company reporting 1H26 topline growth of 12% and FY26 guided cost growth of 20% versus 25%, previously.

US gross profit rose 12% y/y, reflecting a return to growth and was broadly in line with the analyst’s forecast, and a move back to profit growth is viewed positively after two consecutive halves of negative growth.

Management retained FY26 guidance for US gross profit growth between 13-15% and gross margin around 82% in line with FY25, and opex up 20%, with free cash flow flagged to be negative again due to the Iris purchase and investments.

The broker upgrades the stock to Buy from Hold and reiterates a $4.90 target price.

There were no real surprises in Audinate Group’s result, Macquarie suggests. Iris will burn -$5m of cash in FY26. Without near-term free cash flow generation, stock lacks a catalyst, in the broker’s view.

The cost-base reflects a pivot to a longer-term strategy, but this is unproven. However Macquarie thinks the cyclical downgrade cycle is over in the underlying audio business, with this result muted by Iris costs.

Capital raising fears overblown with some eight halves of cash runway. Macquarie upgrades to Neutral from Underperform. Target falls to $3.20 from $4.30.

EAGERS AUTOMOTIVE LIMITED ((APE)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Morgans and Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 4/2/0

Eagers Automotive’s revenue growth was in line with Morgans expectations, up 16.5% year on year.  Profit rose 14%, in line with expectations.

Eagers continues to deliver impressive cost discipline, Morgans suggests, driving a record low opex to sales result of 12.1% and continuing to solidify consistent industry outperformance.

The company is poised for a fourth consecutive year of material A&NZ revenue growth and soon to be acquired CanadaOne is tracking positively. Industry margins appear to have passed the trough, and Eagers continues to drive outperformance through operational excellence.

Strong near-term earnings growth; growing earnings visibility; expected upside through M&A; and various strategic initiatives to support the medium term have Morgans upgrading to Buy from Accumulate. Target falls to $31.80 from $33.35.

Post a better-than-forecast interim update by Eagers Automotive, Ord Minnett upgrades to Buy from Accumulate with its target unchanged at $31.00.

Commentary hiughlights 2025 pre-tax profit of $424.1m beat expectations on slightly better margins, with opex as a share of revenue down to 12.1% and market share rising to 13.9%.

The broker expects CanadaOne to complete by end of the current quarter and sees 2026 Australian segment revenue up $500m–$1.0bn, with BYD volumes a key contributor.

The report suggests the next catalyst is acquisition completion plus ongoing volume/margin momentum, while risk sits in cyclical demand, margin normalisation and used-vehicle strategy execution.

Forecasts lifted 3%-5% across FY26–28.

AVITA MEDICAL INC ((AVH)) Upgrade to Hold from Sell by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 1/1/0

Avita Medical is upgraded to Hold from Sell with an unchanged target of $1.20 post the 4Q2025 results, which saw revenue fall -4% y/y and an earnings (EBIT) loss of -$10.4m against a -$10m loss a year earlier, Bell Potter explains.

The analyst stresses the damage done to Avita from the administrative issues with Medicare Administration Contractors has been sizeable for a company that used to generate quarterly revenue growth of 8.5% per quarter over FY23 and FY24.

The reimbursement issue is now in the rear view mirror for the company, so the broker expects reasonable growth to resume in FY26.

BABY BUNTING GROUP LIMITED ((BBN)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie and Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 4/1/0

Baby Bunting outperformed Macquarie’s expectations in the first half amid an improved gross margin and despite a retail environment heavy with promotions. Like-for-like sales growth of 4.7% beat targets and online continues to outperform.

Underlying net profit of $5m was within guidance but missed estimates as cost pressures weighed. The broker points out the business will undergo a riskier period of weaker free cash flow during refurbishments but long-run returns are considered sizeable.

Rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral. Target rises to $3.30 from $3.15.

Ord Minnett lowers its target to $2.80 from $2.95 for Baby Bunting, but upgrades to Accumulate from Hold following a solid 1H26 result.

Profit rose 4% to $5.0m on sales of $271.4m, with gross margin expanding 124bps to 41%, though higher costs limited upside, explains the analyst.

Full-year profit guidance was narrowed to $17.5-19.5m, implying a stronger second half, while comparable sales momentum continued into 2H26, highlights the broker.

Ord Minnett’s FY26 profit forecasts are largely unchanged, with FY27 and FY28 lifted by 5% and 3%, respectively. 

CHALLENGER LIMITED ((CGF)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 4/1/0

Ord Minnett retains a Buy rating and $9.85 target price on Challenger after interim earnings modestly missed expectations and a $150m buyback disappointed.

Net profit rose 1.6% year-on-year, near the bottom of full-year guidance of between 1-9%, with the broker highlighting pressure from the heavy weighting to term annuities and exposure to interest rate spreads.

Ord Minnett cuts its FY26 EPS forecast by -2.8% and trims FY27 and FY28 estimates by -0.2% and -0.4%, respectively. These changes reflect a narrower cash operating earnings margin partly offset by cost savings and the buyback.

The broker sees upside for Challenger from proposed APRA capital reforms.

CHARTER HALL GROUP ((CHC)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 4/1/0

Charter Hall has upgraded guidance and regained momentum as transaction activity and equity flows accelerate Macquarie explains post 1H26 operating EPS of 50.5cps which was 2% ahead of expectations and 4% above consensus.

The result was supported by lower interest and tax, while underlying earnings momentum was broad-based. Gross Funds Management revenue rose 8%, Property Investment EBITDA increased 24% and Development Investment EBITDA jumped 48% y/y the analyst notes.

Net equity inflows improved to $3.9bn in 1H26, with gross transactions of $9.8bn, and a further $1.9bn of acquisitions completed post balance date.

Management’s FY26  operating sEPS guidance has been upgraded by 5% to 100cps, implying 23% growth year on year, with forecasts lifted by 6% in FY26 and 9% in FY27 on stronger funds management and property earnings and lower interest and tax.

Macquarie upgrades the stock to Outperform from Neutral and the target price increases to $24.53 from $23.71.

COCHLEAR LIMITED ((COH)) Upgrade to Hold from Trim by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/4/1

Cochlear delivered a first half result that was softer than Morgans expected, negatively affected because of extended contracting for the Nucleus Nexa system.

Developed market momentum was delayed and there was an unfavourable emerging market mix while services were flat and acoustic surprised to the downside because of increased competitive pressures.

Management is now targeting the lower end of FY26 guidance and is increasingly reliant on a strong second half recovery, which the broker suspects is optimistic. Target is reduced to $214.93 from $299.54. Rating is upgraded to Hold from Trim on share price weakness.

CAPSTONE COPPER CORP. ((CSC)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 5/0/0

Ord Minnett lowers its target price for Capstone Copper to $15.00 from $16.50 following weaker 2026 production guidance and higher-than-expected capex. The rating is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold on valuation grounds.

2026 production guidance fell short of expectations due to lower ore grades at Pinto Valley and Mantos Blancos, explains the broker. Capex was around -US$100m worse than the consensus estimate.

Ord Minnett downgrades its 2026 and 2027 EPS forecasts by -25.2% and -15.3%, respectively, with no change to 2025. It’s felt valuation upside remains significant should copper prices hold near spot levels.

FREIGHTWAYS GROUP LIMITED ((FRW)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/0/0

It is Ord Minnett’s view 1H earnings beat and visibility has improved, and thus the broker upgrades Freightways Group to Buy and its lifts valuation to $13.87 from $12.84 (+8%).

Commentary points to 1H EBITDA of $143.4m (+10%) and NPATA $58.6m (+15%), with Express performance and 2% currency uplift offsetting one-off restructuring.

NZ comparable sales improve to 2.5% (strongest since FY22), with Ord Minnett expecting mid-to-high single-digit NZ Express revenue growth in 2H on share gains and rate rises.

The VT Freight Express acquisition lifts Australia to above 40% of group revenue on a run-rate basis, adding a further growth platform in Express.

Forecasts/valuation were revised higher to reflect improved earnings momentum and strategy execution. Dividend estimates have gone up slightly.

GPT GROUP ((GPT)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 6/0/0

GPT Group’s 2025 funds from operations were up 5.7% year on year, directly in line with guidance and Macquarie’s expectations. FY26 guidance is for growth 4% year on year.

The investment portfolio is performing strongly, Macquarie notes, with growth of 6.3%, accelerating from 5.8% in 1H25. This strength was evident across all sectors of Retail, Office and Logistics.

Execution of strategy offers upside potential to valuation in the medium to long term, the broker suggests, and evidence of growth in third-party funds under managamenyt is key. GPT is trading at an -8% discount to net tangible asset valuation.

Target rises to $5.70 from $5.55, Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral.

GQG PARTNERS INC ((GQG)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 3/2/0

GQG Partners delivered FY25 profit of US$463m, up 7% year-on-year and broadly in line with consensus, notes broker Morgans.

The analyst highlights improving investment performance in January and February, potentially signalling an early turnaround. The final dividend of US7.1cps maintained a 90% payout ratio.

The broker notes weaker performance fees and ongoing outflows, prompting FY26 and FY27 EPS forecast downgrades of -5 and -10%, respectively. It’s noted costs were well controlled, supporting margins near 77%.

Target trimmed to $1.89 from $1.90. Rating upgraded to Accumulate from Hold as the broker considers the stock price too cheap relative to long-term prospects for the business.

HEALTHCO HEALTHCARE & WELLNESS REIT ((HCW)) Upgrade to Speculative Buy from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/1/1

Morgans upgrades HealthCo Healthcare & Wellness REIT to Speculative Buy with a $1.05 target, citing favourable risk-reward despite near-term execution risk.

Morgans views the REIT as moving towards a negotiated outcome on the Healthscope portfolio, with rent having been paid in full to date and executable agreements in place with alternative operators for all 11 hospitals.

The analyst belives the portfolio fundamentals remain sound, with 99% occupancy, 100% rent collection, 4.2% like-for-like net operating income growth and WALE of 11.3 years, while gearing of 28.5% provides balance sheet flexibility.

Distributions remain suspended pending resolution of Healthscope. The broker lowers funds from operations forecast by -7% for FY26 and -23% for FY27 on a slower resolution timeline.

HANSEN TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED ((HSN)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 4/0/0

Ord Minnett upgrades its rating for Hansen Technologies to Buy from Hold and sets a $6.99 target price, up from $6.78, citing margin upside and AI-driven efficiencies.

While 1H26 underlying earnings (EBITDA) were in line with consensus, the broker points out margins surprised positively at 29.2%. Management is guiding toward closer to 30% in FY26, prompting a 3% upgrade to the analysts’ earnings forecasts.

The broker highlights the EMEA region as a key growth engine, with strong regional growth and further acquisitions likely supported by balance sheet strength.

The stock is seen as attractively valued at 9x FY26 EBITDA and 24x P/E, with defensive AI characteristics.

HUB24 LIMITED ((HUB)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Morgans and Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 5/2/0

Hub24 reported 1H26 underlying profit up 60% year on year and 14% ahead of Morgans, benefiting from strong margin expansion and lower 1H26 tax rate, which is expected to normalise into 2H26.

Momentum during the half was exceptional, Morgans suggests, with half-on-half group revenue up 16% and underlying earnings up 24%.

Morgans expects Hub24 to continue to entrench a market leading position, along with Netwealth ((NWL)), in the platform sector, which is a key attraction.

Hub24’s longer-term play in integrating other parts of the value chain is likely to deliver diversification, long term client advocacy and additional value in time. Target rises to $112.40 from $110.60, upgrade to Accumulate from Hold.

Citi upgrades Hub24 to Buy from Neutral, citing margin upside and positioning as an AI beneficiary. Recent share price weakness is seen as a buying opportunity.

The share price has weakened amid disruption concerns after Altruist launched an AI-driven tax planning platform, the broker explains.

The analyst also opens a positive catalyst watch into the 1H result given potential for the share price to react positively to the margin expansion.

The broker’s target is trimmed by -4% to $100.60 on lower peer multiples. Near-term EBITDA is expected to beat on lower costs.

For February 19 results, the broker forecasts 1H2 core profit (NPATA) of $63m, up 47% year-on-year and 4% above consensus. Earnings margins are seen as expanding strongly, despite slight pressure on platform revenue margins from fee tiering and cash mix.

The analysts expect opex guidance of 18-20% growth to be reiterated, weighted to the 2H. Upside to flows and potential FY27 upgrades are also flagged. 

JB HI-FI LIMITED ((JBH)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS and Upgrade to Hold from Trim by Morgans .B/H/S: 4/1/1

JB Hi-Fi has endured a significant share price decline since its FY25 result as concerns intensified about cycling the tough December quarter, including from UBS.

Commentary acknowledges these fears did not materialise, with the 1H26 result in line with consensus.

The forecast FY26 PE multiple has de-rated significantly from the FY25 result, UBS notes, but is still one deviation higher than the long term trend. This is justified, in the broker’s view, given the increasingly evident resilience of JB Hi-Fi’s earnings growth,

Given share price performance, a 1H26 result above UBS, and confidence on being able to enjoy a higher earnings multiple versus history, the risk-reward now appears attractive. UBS upgrades to Buy from Neutral. Target unchanged at $94.

JB Hi-Fi’s first half result was largely in line with expectations. Morgans notes robust sales driven by demand for consumer electronics and home appliances.

The business has a “highly effective omni-channel model”, the broker adds, with the large presence online complementing an extensive physical store spread.

The business is expected to outperform peers and there are tailwinds in the replacement cycle and AI-enabled product expansion. Rating is upgraded to Hold from Trim and the target is reduced to $87 from $95.

MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED ((MFG)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 0/3/1

A day after interim results for Magellan Financial, Macquarie raises its target to $8.80 from $8.30 and upgrades to Neutral from Underperform. It’s felt associate contributions will grow further in importance through FY27-28.

A summary of yesterday’s research by Macquarie follows.

In an initial take, Macquarie highlights Magellan Financial’s 1H26 underlying EPS of 48.6cps beat the consensus expectation by 23%, driven by stronger associate profits.

Associate earnings, particularly from Barrenjoey, contributed around 31% of profit and materially outperformed, explains the analyst.

The broker highlights Investment Management revenue of $106.9m and profit (PBT) of $54.5m both missed its own forecasts on weaker margins and no performance fees.

SEEK LIMITED ((SEK)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 7/0/0

Morgans retains its $27.50 target for Seek following broadly in-line interim results and upgrades to Buy from Accumulate.

Revenue rose by 12%, earnings (EBITDA) 19% and profit 35%. Strong yield growth offset softer volumes, explains the analyst.

The broker notes 17% A&NZ yield growth. FY26 guidance was reaffirmed toward the top of ranges. Operating leverage improved post technology investment, points out Morgans.

AI risks remain a key question, the analyst cautions.

STOCKLAND ((SGP)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 4/1/0

Macquarie upgrades Stockland to Outperform from Neutral, noting first half earnings were ahead of expectations. FY26 FFO guidance has been reaffirmed at 36-37c per security.

The company has elevated numbers of contracts on hand with 80% of these expected to settle in the second half and points out that buyer behaviour typically shifts only after a second or third rate rise, with settlements affected 6-9 months later.

Macquarie assesses this will provide confidence in second half settlements with sales offices not yet seeing deferrals.

The Queensland, New South Wales and Western Australian markets remain firm, the broker adds, with sales constrained by supply rather than demand. Target is $5.42.

SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED ((SUN)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 4/2/0

Volume growth in Suncorp Group’s Australian consumer division was strong in 1H26, Macquarie notes, and the outlook suggests pricing could be strengthening.

1H26 group underlying insurance trading ratio (ITR) margins were 11.7%, showing strength to weather a more competitive marketplace, and guidance is retained for FY26.

Suncorp’s reinsurance outlook was more optimistic than ever, Macquarie notes. A perpetual style buy-back provides long term downside support for the stock price.

Macquarie upgrades Suncorp to Outperform from Neutral. Target rises to $18.90 from $18.20.

SOUTHERN CROSS ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING LIMITED ((SXE)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 2/0/0

Southern Cross Electrical Engineering delivered underlying EBITDA of $35.4m, up 31% and ahead of Bell Potter’s estimates. Revenue was lower than the prior corresponding half as the large Collie BESS project construction was completed.

FY26 EBITDA guidance has been upgraded to more than $72m. Increased momentum across several end markets provides the company with confidence of further growth beyond FY26.

Bell Potter upgrades to Buy from Hold and raises its target to $3.70 from $2.35, noting increased momentum in secular drivers including data centre construction and renewable energy development.

LOTTERY CORPORATION LIMITED ((TLC)) Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 4/2/0

The share price reaction post result was due to the stock being oversold into earnings, Citi explains, as well as optimism around the new CEO’s strategy, notably in digital.

The analyst lowers earnings (EBIT) forecasts by around -2% for FY26 and circa -1% in FY27, and continues to view consensus earnings as too high into FY27. Neutral rating retained with a $5.10 target.

***

At first look, The Lottery Corp announced 1H26 earnings (EBIT) of $313m, which Citi notes was around -1% below its forecast but 1% above consensus, with lotteries softer and Keno stronger.

Lotteries earnings (EBIT) of $269m missed expectations, impacted by below-average jackpot outcomes, while Keno earnings (EBIT) of $43.7m was ahead of forecasts.

Digital penetration rose 80bps to 41.2%, below Citi’s 42% estimate, and active registered customers declined -8.1% y/y, while Powerball price increase retention of 61% was in line with expectations.

Management’s FY26 opex guidance of -$310m–$320m and capex of -$90m–$100m were broadly in line, commentary suggests, with no update on the Victorian licence renewal and no capital management beyond an interim dividend of 8cps.

Neutral. Target $5.10.

TECHNOLOGY ONE LIMITED ((TNE)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Ord Minnett and Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Bell Potter and Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 6/0/0

Ord Minnett lifts its target price for TechnologyOne by 2.6% to $30.54 and upgrades to Buy from Hold following upgraded AGM guidance. Valuation is considered attractive at 10.7x FY26 EV/revenue, well below historical averages.

Management expects FY26 annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth at the top end of the 16-18% range and profit (PBT) growth at the top end of 18-20%.

Both these metrics are expected to be supported by SaaS Plus momentum and demand for the company’s Plus offering.

The broker highlights full-year free cash flow (FCF) conversion of 100% and views the stock as defensive against AI disruption.

Bell Potter points out TechnologyOne, unusually, provided both pre-tax profit and recurring revenue guidance for FY26 at its AGM. Profit growth of 18-20% is expected with annual recurring revenue growth of 16-18%.

First half profit growth will be in the high single digits because of the investment in the biannual showcase event and the second half is expected to be strong “delivering the full-year step up consistent with guidance”, the company said.

The broker reduces the multiples applied in the P/E ratio and valuations and the net result is an -11% decrease in the target to $29 from $33. Rating is upgraded to Buy from Hold.

Macquarie believes TechnologyOne faces limited AI disruption risk as a deeply-embedded vertical software platform, serving highly regulated public sector markets for core operations. Customers sign long-term (10 year) contracts.

Moreover, new AI products (PLUS and product-enabled AI) are usage-based, marking a shift to a value-share revenue model. This reduces reliance on seat-based pricing and protects against AI threats, Macquarie suggests.

An uplift of 1.5% to profit growth rate combined with a 38-year track record of delivery suggests to Macquarie valuation is attractive relative to history post-AI sell-off.

Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral, target rises to $29.00 from $28.20.

WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION ((WBC)) Upgrade to Trim from Sell by Morgans .B/H/S: 0/2/3

While Westpac’s 1Q26 update revealed broadly flat earnings, they were ahead of Morgans’ 1H expectations.

Net interest income (NII) rose 2%, costs were well controlled and credit conditions remained benign, highlights the broker. It’s thought the CET1 ratio of 12.3% provides capital flexibility, with a special dividend possible.

The broker lifts loan growth and lowers impairment assumptions, driving 5-8% EPS forecast upgrades across FY27-28. While net interest margin (NIM) pressure persists, productivity savings are expected to offset expense growth.

Target raised to $35.12 from $32.20. Rating upgraded to Trim from Sell given an improved total shareholder return (TSR), based on the difference between the share price and the broker’s target.

WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED ((WHC)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Morgans and Upgrade to Hold from Sell by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 2/4/1

Coal prices in 1H26 were a significant headwind for Whitehaven Coal, Morgans notes, with revenue, average achieved price, earnings and operating cash flow all materially lower than in 1H25.

Whitehaven has revised its FY24-28 cost estimates for its Queensland assets to be 10% higher than originally assumed at acquisition.

Morgans expects a stronger 2H supported by increased coal sales and higher realised prices, reflecting recent gains across both metallurgical and thermal coal benchmarks.

Target falls to $9.05 from $9.75. On recent share price weakness, Morgans upgrades to Accumulate from Hold.

Bell Potter upgrades Whitehaven Coal to Hold from Sell as the company is well positioned to capitalise on improving coal market conditions when they arrise with a slightly lower target of $8.10 from $8.40.

The coal producer announced 1H26 underlying EBITDA of $446m, above the analyst’s forecast, while underlying NPAT was down -$19m and statutory NPAT of $69m included $88m of non-recurring items linked to the Queensland acquisitions and Blackwater selldown.

A fully franked interim dividend of 4.0cps was declared, with an equal $32m allocated to the buyback, while period-end cash was $1.1bn and net debt including leases was $0.9bn.

Management revised its five-year average FOB unit cost outlook for Blackwater and Daunia to around $140-145/t, up $20-25/t, citing inflation and operational impacts, with some offset expected from productivity initiatives.

The refinancing of the US$1.1bn acquisition finance facility is viewed as a positive, with management aiming to reduce the current circa 10.5% interest rate toward 6-7% after the non-call ends in March 2026.

Bell Potter’s EPS forecasts are trimmed by -1%, -2% and -3% across FY26-28.

Downgrade

AURIZON HOLDINGS LIMITED ((AZJ)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie and Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 0/3/2

Aurizon Holdings delivered a surprise with first half net profit well ahead of Macquarie’s estimates.

Guidance for FY26 of $1.68-75bn reflects an unusual coal yield impact on EBITDA, while the broker points out FY27-28 will have some challenges with the loss of Whitehaven ((WHC)) volumes, the repricing of the KML contract and the end of the GAPE premium.

The focus will turn to the realisation of network policy and capital management while Macquarie believes the core issue is the company’s industries are not growing and its market share is flat.

Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform and the target rises to $3.91 from $3.77.

After nine months of strong share price performance, UBS downgrades Aurizon Holdings to Sell from Neutral with the stock trading some 10% above the broker’s price target.

The 1H26 result exceeded expectations, however UBS expects some reversion by the full year, and views on the assets have not changed materially. UBS expects Aurizon to remain a reliable cash generator and investors may be attracted to its yield and continued buyback.

However, Aurizon may face some pressure as investors turn attention to the slowing earnings outlook.

Over the next five years, UBS expects the core Coal and Network segments to be collectively flat with growth coming from Bulk and Containerised Freight, businesses with relatively less proven return on invested capital so far.

Relatively, UBS prefers Brambles ((BXB)) and Transurban ((TCL)) within logistics/infrastructure. Target rises to $3.50 from $3.25.

BEACON LIGHTING GROUP LIMITED ((BLX)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 3/1/0

Beacon Lighting’s 1H26 statutory profit of $16.5m came in -8% below the consensus forecast and -6% lower year-on-year, highlights Citi. Cost growth outpaced revenue, pressuring margins, explain the analysts.

The broker lowers its target to $2.75 from $3.95 and downgrades to Neutral from Buy, citing a slowing housing cycle and limited growth initiatives to offset weaker retail demand. Trade expansion is considered to have partly cannibalised retail sales.

Operating leverage risks skew to the downside, the analysts argue, with limited scope for material cost savings. 

GWA GROUP LIMITED ((GWA)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 0/1/0

GWA Group reported 1H26 earnings and revenue in line with Macquarie’s estimates. The market context is mixed, the broker notes, but GWA is managing this well. Customer outcomes are good, though cash conversion slimmed on seasonal inventory build.

End markets continue to show weakness, which coupled with monetary policy changes, may be an ongoing theme, Macquarie warns. Concerns over consumer confidence and increased opex on product development could weigh on growth in the near term.

While underpinned by dividends, the thesis is more complex as growth faces near-term headwinds. Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform. Target falls to $2.65 from $2.90.

IPH LIMITED ((IPH)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/1/0

Macquarie has downgraded IPH to Neutral from Outperform following a 1H26 result with modest underlying growth and ongoing weakness in A&NZ, with like for like EBITDA up 3.2% y/y.

Canada was the standout, benefiting from the B&P contribution, cost synergies and easing CIPO disruption, while Asia delivered modest growth and A&NZ earnings declined on weaker US PCT filings.

The broker notes FX is now a headwind, with a 1c move in AUD/USD equating to around $2.8m of annualised service charge revenue, and sees limited recovery in US-driven volumes near term.

Macquarie lowers FY26, FY27 and FY28 EPS forecasts by -3%, -3% and -0.1%, respectively, reflecting softer organic growth and FX impacts, partly offset by the announced on market buyback of up to 10%. Target price is cut to $3.74 from $4.04, previously.

JUDO CAPITAL HOLDINGS LIMITED ((JDO)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Morgans .B/H/S: 6/0/0

Following Judo Capital’s interim results, Morgans raises its target by 7c to $2.09 and downgrades to Accumulate from Buy given recent share price strength.

Judo delivered strong 1H26 profit growth, highlighting to the broker expanding operating leverage. This performance is seen as supporting double-digit return on equity (ROE) potential into FY27.

FY26 profit (PBT) guidance is unchanged.

The analyst notes improved loan originations and higher net interest margin (NIM) guidance of circa 3.15%, though rising attrition and impairment trends warrant monitoring.

LIFESTYLE COMMUNITIES LIMITED ((LIC)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS .B/H/S: 1/3/0

The pivot from expected rate cuts to hikes couldn’t have come at at a less opportune time for Lifestyle Communities, UBS notes.

Following extremely subdued net sales in 1H25, the pace of recent home sales has improved to a run-rate of some 200 homes as of Sep-25.

UBS believes this recovery story has been deferred in light of the RBA hike, and the potential for one (or more) further hikes this year. Rising rates introduce price uncertainty and generally depress transaction volumes in the established housing market.

While UBS expects FY26 settlements to represent the trough for Lifestyle Communities and is constructive on the medium-term land lease outlook, the broker is cautious on near-term prospects and sits below consensus.

Target falls to $5.99 from $7.60, downgrade to Neutral from Buy.

MITCHELL SERVICES LIMITED ((MSV)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Morgans .B/H/S: 0/1/0

Mitchell Services delivered a step-change in performance in 1H26, Morgans reports. Revenue grew 3% year on year, while earnings increased 69%. Earnings margins expanded materially to 21% compared with 13% previously.

Profit after tax was a strong $8.1m, a significant turnaround from the -$0.3m loss reported in 1H25.

By driving greater productivity from its operating rigs and maintaining disciplined financial management, Mitchell Services has demonstrated its ability to do more with less, Morgans notes, strengthening the business and returning that success to shareholders with a material 4cps dividend.

FY26 continues to look like a strong year for earnings, higher earnings margins, robust free cash flow and a resumption of dividends. A strong share price performance has Morgans downgrading to Hold from Speculative Buy with an unchanged 50c target.

NICK SCALI LIMITED ((NCK)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 2/1/1

Upon further analysis of Nick Scali’s interim results, Citi lowers its target to $19.20 from $27.95 and downgrades to Neutral from Buy, citing a tougher macro backdrop and slowing Australian sales. The broker sees EPS-accretive acquisitions as the key upside risk.

January written sales growth of just over 3%, and 3.2% for the order book, signals to the analysts moderation from stronger first-half trends. A&NZ growth is expected to soften further amid rate rises and tougher comparables. 

During the subsequent analyst call, management expressed encouragement with UK trading momentum, highlights the broker, indicating breakeven is likely in the near term while prioritising further store openings.

A summary of Citi’s initial research on result’s day follows.

In an initial assessment of today’s interim result by Nick Scali, Citi notes profit of $41m beat guidance and consensus. A 39cps dividend also compares to the 32c expected by the market. Gross margin reached 65.4% (consensus 64.8%) with A&NZ expansion of 150bps.

The broker highlights stronger UK margins and disciplined costs. Management guided to six new A&NZ stores in FY26. UK January sales were robust, suggest the analysts, though 1H UK revenue lagged forecasts.

On the flipside, Citi feels investors may be underwhelmed by A&NZ January 2026 written sales growth of 3.1%, particularly given an easy comparative period.

Also, the current order book suggests to the broker current consensus 2H26 revenue expectations could prove optimistic amid rising interest rates.

NEW HOPE CORPORATION LIMITED ((NHC)) Downgrade to Sell from Hold by Bell Potter and Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 0/3/2

Bell Potter downgrades New Hope to Sell from Hold with a higher target price of $4.10 from $4 due to the recent strength in the share price and the “subdued” outlook on the thermal coal price.

The coal producer announced quarterly saleable production of 2.8Mt, beating the analyst’s forecast, and sales of 2.9Mt were also better than anticipated, with a drawdown in inventories to offset a one-week shutdown.

Average group sales price was $139/t, up 2% q/q, and higher coal prices were somewhat offset by a stronger AUD.

The broker now incorporates a forecast thermal coal price of US$110/t in 2026 from US$100/t previously and US$100/t in 2027-28, unchanged for 2027 previously and up from US$90/t in 2028 before.

Bell Potter lifts EPS forecasts by 29% for FY26 and 8% for FY27.

New Hope provided underlying unaudited EBITDA of $106.9m for the second quarter, bringing the first half EBITDA to $214.8m, despite weaker spot prices.

Morgans believes the business is well-positioned to deliver low-cost, high-margin cash flow from thermal coal operations, even in the current pricing environment.

A robust financial position will also enable it to navigate any downturn and support attractive dividends for patient investors. Rating is downgraded to Hold from Accumulate and the target is lifted to $5.00 from $4.55.

NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LIMITED ((NST)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Morgans .B/H/S: 5/0/1

In the wake of interim results for Northern Star Resources, Morgans lowers its target to $30.50 from $33.00 and downgrades to Accumulate from Buy.

The result was broadly in line with the broker’s forecasts, with production and cost revisions well flagged. Revenue of $3,414m and underlying EBITDA of $1,875m met expectations.

Hemi’s first gold has shifted to FY30, though this timing was already embedded in forecasts, explains the broker.

A fully franked dividend of 25c beat the analyst’s forecast and sits toward the top of the 20-30% payout range.

REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED ((RRL)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Morgans .B/H/S: 4/0/2

Regis Resources’ 1H26 revenue of was up 40% year on year and was in line with consensus. Earnings were up 73% — a modest beat. Full year guidance was again reiterated.

A key positive for Morgans is the iIntroduction of a structured capital management framework, with semi-annual distributions targeted at 25–50% of cash build, providing improved visibility on shareholder returns and better aligns with Regis’ leveraged exposure to the gold price.

The 15cps fully franked dividend materially exceeded consensus expectations and reinforces the strength of current cash generation. 

Regis Resources remains well positioned to benefit from the ongoing strength in gold, Morgans notes, however its elevated cost base and sensitivity to gold price volatility provide less downside protection relative to lower-cost peers.

Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy, target unchanged at $9.13.

SUPERLOOP LIMITED ((SLC)) Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 4/1/0

Morgans downgrades Superloop to Hold from Accumulate due to the share price strength with an unchanged target of $3 post 1H26 results which were viewed as high-quality and a slight beat driven by lower-than-expected opex.

Management’s FY26 earnings (EBITDA) guidance was upgraded by around 3% to $112m-$120m, which Morgans views as conservative given the strength in the half.

Subscriber momentum remained strong, with record NBN net adds lifting the base to 435k, while wholesale growth also outperformed expectations.

The acquisition of Lightning Broadband for -$165m cash was also announced. The analyst raises FY26 earnings (EBITDA) forecasts by 2% and 12% for FY27/FY28 which translates to an EPS upgrade of around 2% for FY27/FY28.

SOLVAR LIMITED ((SVR)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/1/0

Morgans downgrades Solvar to Accumulate from Buy with a higher target of $2 from $1.85 post interim results.

The results came in above the broker’s expectations with normalised net proft after growth of $20m.  Net interest income of $74.3m missed, and net interest margin contracted to 16.4%, reflecting mix changes and NZ roll-off, while bad debts improved to 2.9%.

The Australian loan book grew, supported by a record half from AFS and continued traction from Bennji, while NZ receivables reduced to around $50m.

Management reiterated FY26 net profit after guidance of around $36m implying a 2H skew and improving book growth momentum into 2H26.

Morgans lifts net profit forecats for FY26-FY28 by 5%/1%1%, respectively.

WEBJET GROUP LIMITED ((WJL)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 0/2/0

Ord Minnett lowers its target for Webjet Group to 67c form $1.15, after reducing its FY26-28 EPS forecasts by between -15-35%, and downgrades to Hold from Buy following a double setback.

Takeover talks with Helloworld Travel ((HLO)) and BGH Capital have ceased and management lowered FY26 earnings guidance by -13% to $28-29m, or $27-28m including Webjet Business Travel losses.

The analysts believe weaker domestic airline bookings and execution of a longer-term strategic plan will weigh on near-term earnings. While bidders could return, the probability of a deal is considered low.

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
Broker Recommendation Breakup <img alt="3dbar" src="https://www.fnarena.com/charts/fnarena/3dbar.php?mydata=1&mylabels=BellPotter,Citi,Macquarie,MorganStanley,Morgans,OrdMinnett,ShawandPartners,UBS&b0=237,150,191,103,263,263,171,145&h0=127,137,162,108,163,142,25,170&s0=10,26,39,51,30,38,5,31″ style=”border:1px solid #000000″>

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