Weekly Reports | 11:10 AM
A summary of the highlights from Broker Call Extra updates throughout the week past.
Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)
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AMP LIMITED ((AMP)) Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Although AMP's 1H26 headline earnings were flat versus consensus and -2.8% below Jarden, AMP benefitted from a lower tax rate and a strong Corporate result, with core divisions significantly below expectations.
Within platforms, net inflows were offset by a softer revenue margin. For the Bank, Jarden has reservations about AMP's strategy and it is difficult for the broker to see a credible pathway for AMP to compete given its weak deposit franchise and competition from scaled peers.
However, following a weak half, Jarden believes value is emerging at the price. Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral. Target falls to $1.65 from $1.85.
AURIZON HOLDINGS LIMITED ((AZJ)) Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Aurizon delivered 1H26 Core NPAT of $237m, an 8% beat to consensus, driven by improved Coal and a sharp turnaround in Bulk earnings.
Bulk EBIT more than doubled y/y to $49m, marking the first period of underlying growth in around two years, while Coal EBIT of $192m was well ahead of expectations and de-risked FY26 forecasts.
FY26 EBITDA guidance was maintained at $1,680-1,750m and appears conservative, with Jarden lifting FY26 Core EPS by 3.5% and incorporating a higher circa 90% payout ratio and additional $100m on-market buyback.
The broker highlights improving earnings visibility and lower capex intensity as supportive of stronger free cash flow from FY27.
Jarden upgrades to Overweight from Neutral and raises the target to $3.90 from $3.45.
BRAVURA SOLUTIONS LIMITED ((BVS)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Canaccord Genuity, on further contemplation of the Bravura Solutions first half results, upgrades to Buy from Hold and raises the target to $2.73 from $2.00.
Strong cost discipline and improved customer sentiment are paving the way for a stronger FY26-27 than the broker had expected and revenue estimates are upgraded by 5-6% while cash EBITDA is raised 19-31% across the forecast period.
Earlier, Canaccord Genuity noted Bravura Solutions posted a strong beat across all major revenue and earnings lines, supported by lower cash earnings.
The key for the shares to trade higher should be be the new CEO's commentary on costs into 2H26, noting some further small headcount reductions seen over the half.
BWP TRUST ((BWP)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
BWP Trust’s 1H26 result came in slightly ahead of expectations, supported by stronger property income rather than any change in distribution guidance. Funds from operations were 9.7c, above both Jarden and consensus, while FY26 DPU guidance was held at 19.41c.
The analyst highlights occupancy at a cyclical low of 96.7% but expects improvement towards around 99% by the end of FY26, alongside an elevated FY26 capex program of -$60-70m which is expected to be accretive once projects complete.
The broker lifts FFO forecasts by 3.1% for FY26, 1.3% for FY27 and 1.2% for FY28 and upgrades the stock to Neutral from Underweight and raises the target price to $3.95 from $3.85.
CSL LIMITED ((CSL)) Buy by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0
CSL's FY26 guidance is in trouble, Canaccord Genuity suggests. The profit outlook is surprisingly maintained after missing 1H26 forecasts. Themes include consecutive misses in immunoglobulins and albumin.
Bright spots exist in the broader portfolio but remain nascent contributors unlikely to offset structural weaknesses in the short term, Canaccord notes.
Behring’s segment contribution was down -7% Seqirus and Vifor both did better than expected but remain tertiary considerations.
CSL maintained FY26 guidance, implying an unprecedented degree of 1H/2H phasing. Canaccord is reviewing its estimates. Buy and $225 target, for now.
HOMECO DAILY NEEDS REIT ((HDN)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Moelis.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Commenting after interim results, Moelis says HomeCo Daily Needs REIT continues to deliver strong operating metrics, with 6.2% leasing spreads and 4.0% like-for-like net operating income (NOI) growth.
The broker trims its medium-term EPS forecast on higher floating rates, partly offset by lower lending margins.
Moelis notes 1H26 FFO of 4.4cpu and a dividend of 4.3cpu, with occupancy above 99%. Gearing of 35.2% implies to the broker ongoing asset recycling to fund the $650m development pipeline.
The analyst sees the stock trading attractively at a -17% NTA discount and 6.2% implied cap rate.
The broker's target rises to $1.46 from $1.44 and the rating is upgraded to Buy from Hold.
JB HI-FI LIMITED ((JBH)) Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
JB Hi-Fi posted a first half result that was better than feared and Jarden finds a lot to like in the outlook. While in the second half business has slowed, the broker expects this will be short lived as there are a number of catalysts ahead.
Jarden expects minimal impact on demand from inflation given the essential nature of PCs, which will be affected. Rating is upgraded to Overweight from Neutral.
The broker also notes the strength of The Good Guys result, with steady share in a competitive market. Target is reduced to $88.90 from $96.80.
NEWS CORPORATION ((NWS)) Upgrade to Buy from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Jarden upgrades News Corp to Buy from Overweight, target price reduced to $46.80 from $48.60, incorporating a roughly -10% cut to the REA Group ((REA)) valuation.
At first glance, the analyst notes earnings (EBITDA) in 2Q26 came in 6% ahead of consensus, reflecting a strong quarterly performance. Dow Jones maintained solid momentum, while Professional Information Services revenue rose 12%.
Amid recent AI concerns, the broker highlights News' proprietary data assets and real time content as a competitive moat against AI related disruption.
Near term EPS forecasts are lifted by 5% to 7%, largely driven by a stronger AUD.
ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED ((ORG)) Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Origin Energy has upgraded FY26 energy markets EBITDA guidance by 6.5%. Jarden notes the highlight of the interim result was strong electricity gross profit which beat estimates.
The broker suspects the market was concerned the low volatility during the half could translate into lower earnings but a combination of higher customer tariffs, lower net pool costs, lower green scheme costs and lower solar FiT drove a beat to expectations.
Jarden increases FY26 energy markets EBITDA estimates by 5.8%.
The company has acknowledged lower wholesale electricity prices will negatively affect electricity earnings in FY27, but the broker expects this will be more than offset by lower coal costs and increased battery earnings.
Rating is upgraded to Overweight from Neutral. Target rises to $12.00 from $11.65.
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