Weekly Reports | 10:30 AM
Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.
By Mark Woodruff
Guide:
The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, Shaw and Partners and UBS.
For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.
Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.
Summary
Period: Monday February 16 to Friday February 20, 2026
Total Upgrades: 32
Total Downgrades: 16
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 65.34%; Hold 27.08%; Sell 7.58%
Nearing only the half-way point of the current reporting season (in terms of numbers of corporate updates), for the week ending Friday, February 20, 2026, FNArena recorded 32 upgrades and 16 downgrades across ASX-listed companies from brokers monitored daily.
After an ongoing share price slide due to the current global aversion to SaaS stocks, TechnologyOne received three upgrades to Buy or equivalent from separate brokers.
Upgraded guidance at the AGM last week was anticipated, according to UBS, yet still modestly exceeded forecasts by the broker and consensus.
Strong guidance for annual recurring revenue and profit growth reinforced this broker’s confidence in ongoing business momentum, particularly as TechOne is viewed as the most AI-defensive name under UBS' coverage of large-cap SaaS exposures in Australia.
Ord Minnett agreed the stock is a defensive play against AI disruption.
Early monetisation of the company’s AI platform ‘Plus’ also provided comfort to the analysts, given AI could become a growth inflection point over time.
An uplift of 1.5% to the company’s profit growth rate, combined with a 38-year track record of delivery, also indicated to Macquarie valuation is currently attractive relative to history.
Another six companies secured dual ratings upgrades from separate brokers.
For four of these, Audinate Group, Baby Bunting, Eagers Automotive and Hub24, the improved ratings followed better-than-forecast earnings ‘beats’, as detailed in FNArena’s Corporate Results Monitor:
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/02/20/fnarena-corporate-results-monitor-20-02-2026/.
The remaining two upgrades for JB Hi-Fi and Whitehaven Coal are assigned an 'in-line' designation and a ‘miss’, respectively.
For Whitehaven, UBS explained the interim dividend was lower than expected. Higher Queensland costs over the medium term and normalising metallurgical and thermal coal markets also weigh on the broker's investment case.
On the flipside, Aurizon Holdings and New Hope received two ratings downgrades apiece from analysts post interim results.
An explanation is warranted for New Hope as its quarterly result falls outside the scope of the Results Monitor.
Both Bell Potter and Morgans raised their respective targets for the coal miner, but the former downgraded its rating to Sell from Hold due to both recent share price strength and a "subdued" outlook for the thermal coal price.
While Morgans downgraded its rating to Hold from Accumulate, this analyst noted a compelling opportunity for more patient investors seeking exposure to long-life, low-cost and operationally stable coal assets.
Percentage declines in average target prices outweigh increases in the tables below, while, as per last week, increases in average earnings forecasts outpace reductions.
Corresponding with ‘misses’ in the Monitor, the top six declines in average target prices in the table below belong to Cochlear, Nick Scali, Beacon Lighting, Seek, Lovisa Holdings, and Zip Co.
While copper exposure AIC Mines tops both the positive target change and forecast earnings tables, the latter partly reflects small base numbers amplifying the percentage move, with the Monitor assigning an ‘in-line’ assessment.
Following AIC Mines on the average target price table are NRW Holdings and Bega Cheese with respective percentage gains of 16% and 9% after exceeding result expectations.
Copper and gold producer Aeris Resources follows, with its average target rising 9% after entering a binding scheme of arrangement to acquire 100% of ASX-listed Peel Mining via an all-scrip offer.
Bell Potter suggested this is a "strategic" acquisition to boost the mine life for Aeris’ 100%-owned Tritton copper mine in central western New South Wales.
Forecast earnings upgrades not addressed in the Monitor relate to uranium developer Deep Yellow and network provider Megaport.
Morgans updated its Deep Yellow forecasts, reflecting later first production at Tumas in Namibia and a stronger uranium outlook.
This broker pushed first output to the second half of FY28 and raised its bull-case uranium price to US$125/lb, increasing its target price for the company to $2.56 from $1.92.
Long-term upside is envisaged for Deep Yellow’s projects in Tumas and Mulga Rock in Western Australia.
The broker noted spot uranium has risen to around US$94/lb, with contracting activity supporting higher incentive pricing.
As Megaport released its interim results on Friday, Citi and UBS only had time to deliver their first impressions.
UBS noted revenue and earnings came in higher than expected by consensus to the tune of 3% and 30%, respectively, with net revenue retention (NRR) improving 1% since November.
Annual recurring revenue growth remained steady at 19%, the analyst observed, while customer additions were modestly higher.
Revenue guidance of $264-270m (midpoint $267m versus UBS at $265m) reflects a lift to the bottom end from $260m previously, explained the broker, despite a -$9m FX headwind.
While the interim results surprised Citi on the upside, FY26 earnings guidance proved below expectation.
Partly owing to the current commodity price forecast upgrade cycle, both IGO Ltd and Rio Tinto appear in the forecast earnings upgrade table, despite their results disappointing.
Regarding negative change to forecast earnings, here the top six names are all explained by earnings reports below expectations, apart from the in-line result for Iluka Resources.
Each are discussed at length in the commentary section of the Monitor.
Total Buy ratings for the eight stockbrokerages daily monitored by FNArena still sit at an historically elevated percentage of 65.34%.
With only 7.58% in Sell ratings, this leaves 27.08% for Neutral/Holds.
The full story is for FNArena subscribers only. To read the full story plus enjoy a free two-week trial to our service SIGN UP HERE
If you already had your free trial, why not join as a paying subscriber? CLICK HERE