Rudi’s View: Strategists Touting Opportunities

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This story features AMCOR PLC, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AMC
The company is included in ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

Share market strategists are looking beyond the short-term, as the war in Iran is not expected to last beyond month's end.

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor

Bell Potter strategists Rob Crookston and Paul Basha’s latest strategy update takes a rather sanguine point of view around this year’s share market malaise thus far.

While current conditions are annoyingly frustrating, with ongoing uncertainty about duration and objectives even after the US president addressed the nation on Thursday, Bell Potter strategists remind investors share market drawdowns of -10% are nothing exceptional.

Looking at historical precedents, markets typical generate “robust positive returns” over six, twelve and 18 months once that “correction” has run its course.

In case there was any doubt: Bell Potter is not worried. Instead, Thursday’s strategy update highlights the US economy continues to operate from a position of relative strength, the Federal Reserve retains significant dry powder to provide support if/when necessary, and we haven’t even seen the fiscal stimulus kick in from the “One Big Beautiful Bill”.

Then there’s AI… the correlated capex boom is unlikely to be deterred by whatever is happening in Iran, the strategists argue, and thus continues to provide support to the US economy.

It’s a pity, but Bell Potter’s assessment is focused on the USA where quality companies have been de-rated substantially and excessively. Bell Potter’s advice to investors is to grab your chance, while looking through short-term volatility.

As a hint, the strategy report highlights six of the Mag7 (excluding Tesla) are currently trading at or near decade-low valuation multiples.

Conclusion:

“While the next few weeks/months will undoubtedly bring continued uncertainty regarding the direction of the conflict and its impact on the global economy, it is important to look at history.

“History has shown time and again that the highest returns are often generated by those who have the fortitude to increase exposure when the outlook appears most clouded.

“By prioritising fundamentals over headlines, disciplined investors can transform periods of volatility into significant long term returns.”

Within this context, and to add some ASX-specific content to the suggestion put forward, I looked up the ten highest ranking stocks on FNArena’s R-Factor filter:

• Amcor ((AMC))
• Nine Entertainment ((NEC))
• Regis Resources ((RRL))
• Atlas Arteria ((ALX))
• Dexus ((DXS))
• Bank of Queensland ((BOQ))
• Flight Centre Travel ((FLT))
• Perpetual ((PPT))
• Vault Minerals ((VAU))
• Beach Energy ((BPT))

For those not familiar with how our R-Factor works: rankings are based on forecast growth for two years ahead (mostly FY26 and FY27) relative to PE multiples and dividend yields.

Hence, it can be concluded on that basis, these are currently the ten “cheapest” stocks on the local bourse.

R-Factor also allows to ignore dividends, and this, obviously, generates a different ranking. Plus: forecasts are never set in stone.

For example: on Thursday morning analysts at Morgan Stanley are flagging margin risks for Super Retail ((SUL)), Accent Group ((AX1)), Myer ((MYR)), and Premier Investments ((PMV)).

For more info: https://fnarena.com/index.php/analysis-data/consensus-forecasts/the-rfactor/

FNArena also publishes a monthly updated Australian Super Stock Report, which ranks stocks according to broker ratings.

As one should expect, in a market as polarised and with nearly two-thirds in Buy-equivalent ratings, more than 50% of all 522 ASX-listed companies that carry at least one rating from FNArena’s daily monitored brokers has the maximum score of nothing but perfect Buys.

Having said that, nine stocks currently have the worst score possible, i.e. only Sell ratings. Within the current context, it might be worth highlighting those:

• Air New Zealand ((AIZ))
• Appen ((APX))
• Atlantic Lithium ((A11))
• CommBank ((CBA))
• Emerald Resources ((EMR))
• EQ Resources ((EQR))
• Hastings Technology Mertals ((HAS))
• Helia Group ((HLI))
• Proteomics International Laboratories ((PIQ))

To finish on a positive note, here are the 12 highest ranked, combining both a perfect Buy-score as well as the highest number of broker ratings:

• Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
• Orica ((ORI))
• WiseTech Global ((WTC))
• Light & Wonder ((LNW))
• NextDC ((NXT))
• Pro Medicus ((PME))
• ResMed ((RMD))
• Universal Store Holdings ((UNI))
• SiteMinder ((SDR))
• Seek ((SEK))
• Flight Centre TRavel ((FLT))
• Generation Development ((GDG))

See: https://fnarena.com/index.php/analysis-data/super-stock-report/

When The War Is Over

Shaw and Partners‘ March InFocus report –essentially a monthly update on markets– mimics the confidence of Bell Potter strategists, but with more focus on war in the Middle East.

The scenario with the highest probability (65%) sees the US and Iran progress towards a “tentative ceasefire” by late April, which might include a “weak nuclear deal” and Iran seeking to rebuild its arsenal of weapons over the years to come.

Trump does not want an extended war, is this strategy update’s central premise. A meeting with Xi Jinping is scheduled for mid-May. The mid-term elections are forthcoming.

Here, too, a share market correction of up to -10% is seen as within expectations. Assuming this scenario plays out, crude oil is expected to trade inside a pricing range of US$90-US$110/bbl, and recede later onwards as the war premium gets priced out.

Gold is expected to trade between US$4500-US$5000/oz against the background of a range-trading USD.

While somewhat comforting, the report also states: there are no guarantees.

The latter is an important point that also features in Oxford Economics‘ latest assessment of the Iran war’s impact on the Australian economy.

Oxford’s base scenario remains the Strait of Hormuz is closed until the end of April.

Throughout May and June, traffic through the Strait will resume by some 50%, then gradually recover to full capacity over the next six months.

A more dire scenario sees oil trading above US$150/bbl for more months, which would push inflation to 7.7%, not that far off from the peak seen in covid lockdown days.

That’s the scenario under which Australia would suffer a sharp recession. Oxford’s modeling suggests GDP will then likely contract by -0.3% in Q2 (June) and by a further -0.8% in Q3 (September).

Excluding the pandemic, this would be the sharpest quarterly fall since the early 1990s.

Industries to suffer the most include transport, manufacturing, and mining, with agriculture equally heavily exposed through diesel and fertiliser.

The good news is, if the war is over by month’s end –still Oxford’s base case premise– the RBA is expected to hold off on further rate hikes.

“To avoid causing too much pain for households and businesses, we expect the board will likely opt to keep rates in restrictive territory for longer, rather than push ahead with a sharper-but-shorter tightening cycle.”

Alas, that option won’t be available in case of a more prolonged war.

I think the messaging is clear: once the war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz progress past April the 30th, worse case scenarios come into focus.

Not just for Australia, but for the world at large.

Can anybody tell the US president and Israel’s leader?

Conviction Calls & Best Buys

Ord Minnett’s Analysts’ Conviction List, grouping together the broker’s analysts’ best stock ideas for the year ahead, contains twelve nominations:

• Alkane Resources ((ALK))
• Brazilian Rare Earths ((BRE))
• Breville Group ((BRG))
• Cuscal ((CCL))
• Energy One ((EOL))
• Lindsay Australia ((LAU))
• Qoria ((QOR))
• Regis Healthcare ((REG))
• Service Stream ((SSM))
• Shape Australia ((SHA))
• SiteMinder ((SDA))
• Zip Co ((ZIP))

Earlier this week, analysts at Morgans announced they’ve added two fresh inclusions for the broker’s Best Ideas list:

• WiseTech Global ((WTC))
• Eagers Automotive ((APE))

But wait… no less than seven (7) former inclusions have been removed:

• Woodside Energy ((WDS))
• CSL ((CSL))
• Flight Centre ((FLT))
• Judo Capital ((JDO))
• EBR Systems ((EBR))
• Universal Store Holdings ((UNI))
• ARB Corp ((ARB))

See also:

https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/03/19/rudis-view-top-picks-conviction-buys/

https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/03/12/rudis-view-post-february-conviction-calls-2/

(Do note that, in line with all my analyses, appearances and presentations, all of the above names and calculations are provided for educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions.)  

P.S. I – All paying members at FNArena are being reminded they can set an email alert for my Rudi’s View stories. Go to My Alerts (top bar of the website) and tick the box in front of ‘Rudi’s View’. You will receive an email alert every time a new Rudi’s View story has been published on the website. 

P.S. II – If you are reading this story through a third party distribution channel and you cannot see charts included, we apologise, but technical limitations are to blame.

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