Technicals | 10:30 AM
Earlier today, Tony Sycamore, Market Analyst, IG updated his views and thoughts on financial markets, including the technical analysis.
All material has been re-published with permission and does not by association represent FNArena’s views (we have none, we simply report).
First Up, Nasdaq100
The Nasdaq100 has been in a corrective phase since hitting its late-October peak of 26,182, with the pattern reinforced by a clear double top formed in late January.
Ideally, this pullback would test the key support zone around the 200-day moving average at 24,142 reinforced by the November 21 low of 23,854. This confluence of support would be the natural spot to watch for early signs of basing and potential reversal.
Aware that a sustained break below the 24,100/23,800 support zone would warn of a deeper correction towards 23,000.
ASX200
The ASX200’s retreat yesterday back below its breakout level at 9110/9100ish is a negative development.
This combined with overnight weakness on Wall Street opens the way for the pullback to deepen back towards the next level of support at 8850ish.
Crude Oil
WTI Crude Oil is trading higher at US$73.44 (up 3.36%), trimming gains from its overnight high of US$77.98.
This pullback follows indications from the US administration it could help reopen flows through the Strait of Hormuz via pairing naval escorts with government-backed war-risk insurance, directly reducing both the physical and financial risks of transit.
Adding to this downside pressure were President Trump’s observations last night that the Iranian Air Force, and, crucially for shipping, its Navy has been “knocked out”, suggesting reduced capacity to sustain disruptions or threats through the Strait.
If these measures are thought to be viable and implemented relatively quickly, it would soon restore confidence for safe passage and encourage a resumption of shipping and oil supply.
Critically, this would also strongly suggest that crude oil may have already seen its cycle high at that overnight print of US$77.98, falling just short of the US$78.40 high recorded in June 2025.
Gold
Gold is trading lower at US$5096 (-US$4.23%) on track for its largest daily decline since the sharp drop to the US$4402 low in late January.
The sell-off kicked off with broad-based de-risking across markets where almost everything bar the surging US dollar and oil got hammered, before proposed US measures to ease transit risks through the Strait of Hormuz stepped in to dial back immediate fears of drawn-out supply disruptions.
On top of that, the rates market has pulled back on rate-cut bets as it digests the inflationary impact of higher energy prices, fuelling the aggressive sell off viewed today.
Technical limitations
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