Weekly Reports | 10:29 AM
A summary of the highlights from Broker Call Extra updates throughout the week past.
Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)
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CENTURIA CAPITAL GROUP ((CNI)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Moelis.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Centuria Capital's first-half operating EPS rose 6.5% on the prior year to 6.6cpu. Look-through earnings (EBITDA) also increased 5%, supported by higher funds under management (FUM), management fees and performance fee releases, Moelis explains.
Real estate funds under management (FUM) rose 5% in the six months to $18.3bn, while Bass Credit increased to $2.5bn from $2.3bn.
Fee revenue increased 16% year-on-year to $92m, though the analyst observes earnings were partly offset by losses from the Sovereign AI platform.
Moelis lowers its medium-term forecasts reflecting assumptions for slower FUM growth, reduced performance fees and the impact of ResetData. Target price falls to $2.23 from $2.45. Rating upgraded to Buy from Hold on valuation grounds.
IMDEX LIMITED ((IMD)) Upgrade to Underweight from Sell by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Imdex' first half result was characterised by margin improvement in a strong outcome across the Americas and earnings beat estimates, Jarden comments.
While assessing valuation considerations are "secondary" to the beat to estimates and the upgrade cycle for investors, Jarden believes it has been wrong in its conservative approach to valuation metrics for the stock and raises its rating to Underweight from Sell.
Overall, the broker forecasts FY26 core net profit of $55.4m implying strong growth of 28% relative to FY25. Target is raised to $3.60 from $2.90.
LARK DISTILLING CO. LIMITED ((LRK)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Moelis.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Lark Distilling's 1H26 result was broadly in line and Moelis maintains an FY26 sales growth forecast of 18% year on year, implying a 2H weighting consistent with export and domestic restage rollout.
The key driver to sales in FY26 and beyond will be the size and cadence of export reorders after initial shipments are depleted. Global spirits sector multiples have derated significantly since covid, Moelis notes. Similarly, Lark's multiple has derated and near-term expectations have reset.
At a -10% discount to FY27 sector multiples, the broker believes the downside is increasingly underwritten while export market growth provides re-rating potential into FY27. Upgrade to Buy from Hold, target 88c.
SCENTRE GROUP ((SCG)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
2025 results from Scentre Group were in line with estimates, while the maiden 2026 FFO guidance of 23.73c missed Jarden's expectations because of higher base rates and a lower expected benefit from debt refinancing.
The broker suspects many investors had already anticipated a soft result, judging by the share price reaction. Mall fundamentals remain strong, although Jarden's relatively dovish house view on rates supports a rotation into the more cyclical residential names where prices have rebased.
Rating is upgraded to Neutral from Underweight and the target reduced to $4.15 from $4.40.
SITEMINDER LIMITED ((SDR)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Canaccord Genuity upgrades SiteMinder to Buy from Hold, arguing recent share price weakness has created a more attractive risk-reward profile and that concerns around AI disruption to the company’s competitive position are overstated.
The broker notes solid 1H26 metrics including ARR of $280.3m, up 30% y/y and ahead of forecasts, while revenue rose 26% and free cash flow turned positive at $2.8m.
Management reiterated FY26 guidance with growth expected to trend toward 30%, supported by strong uptake of Smart products including Smart Distribution and Direct Revenue Plus.
Target price is cut to $4.96 from $7.67 following a shift to a lower valuation multiple.
SIGMA HEALTHCARE LIMITED ((SIG)) Upgrade to Buy from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Sigma Healthcare posted first half earnings that were in line with expectations albeit the composition was different to what Jarden anticipated. Sales were ahead of forecasts while margin expansion was softer.
Going forward, the broker surmises the risks are to the upside for earnings with the international roll-out and synergies on track. The main challenge is to confidently forecast revenue outcomes going forward, as well as leverage.
Forecasts are largely unchanged and the broker, liking the health exposure, market position and high incremental returns on capital, upgrades to Buy from Overweight. Target of $3.60 is unchanged.
SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED ((SUN)) Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
First half cash net profit from Suncorp Group was below expectations amid lower gross written premium growth, albeit costs were lower, and Jarden expects gross written premium growth of 3.6% in FY26.
The required acceleration in the second half appears achievable to the broker, underpinned by bank CTP filings and motor repricing.
The June 2027 renewal will provide an opportunity for further reinsurance optimisation, including aggregate cover, while the increase to the existing $400m buyback is considered potentially attractive in a moderating premium environment and de-rating.
Rating is upgraded to Overweight from Neutral and the target lifted to $18.60 from $18.40.
WISETECH GLOBAL LIMITED ((WTC)) Upgrade to Buy from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Jarden, while finding a number of unanswered questions following the first half result, upgrades WiseTech Global to Buy from Overweight.
The most significant new information in the result was the news the company will lower product & development and customer service personnel by up to -50%, as part of an acceleration of its AI transformation, commentary states.
A net cost saving estimate has not been provided but the broker calculates, using conservative estimates of salaries, annualised gross cost savings by FY28 of US$180m.
Jarden lifts EPS estimates for FY27 FY28 by 7% but takes a more conservative view on CargoWise, which drives longer term downgrades. Target is reduced to $63 from $74.
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