Weekly Reports | Mar 09 2026
Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.
By Mark Woodruff
Guide:
The FNArena database tabulates the views of seven major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, and UBS.
For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.
Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.
Summary
Period: Monday March 2 to Friday March 6, 2026
Total Upgrades: 15
Total Downgrades: 7
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 65.51%; Hold 26.75%; Sell 7.74%
In what was the final week of the reporting season, FNArena recorded fifteen upgrades and seven downgrades across ASX-listed companies for the week ending Friday, March 6, 2026, from brokers monitored daily.
Percentage falls in average target prices slightly exceeded rises in the tables below while changes in average earnings forecasts were broadly equal.
Woodside Energy, Santos and Beach Energy received material increases in average earnings forecasts after brokers reacted to news of the US/Israel–Iran conflict, and the surging prices for oil and gas in response.
Based on the assumption the war continues for the next couple of weeks and oil flows via the Strait of Hormuz are severely disrupted, UBS raised its near-term oil price forecasts.
While recognising the surge in oil and LNG prices may be short-lived, the broker noted the situation provides companies like Woodside with an unexpected source of cash flow.
Among stocks under coverage, Morgans favours Woodside and Amplitude Energy, highlighting their operational and strategic investment case has not changed.
Noting a prolonged disruption could push prices above the US$90-100/bbl range, this broker applied an oil shock premium of 10% to its 12-month target prices for Woodside, Santos, and Karoon Energy. The premium added for Beach Energy was 5% given oil’s rise could potentially close the mergers and acquisitions market.
It's recommended active investors take partial profits but retain exposure, avoiding chasing the rally and adding on pullbacks. Longer-term holders should trim modestly, Morgans suggested, as higher oil prices support LNG earnings, balance sheets and growth optionality.
Comparing the potential implications for Neutral-rated Woodside and Santos (Buy) from further supply disruptions, Citi noted while both companies benefit from elevated crude prices, Woodside is more leveraged to spot LNG pricing.
Santos has greater oil exposure through its contracted LNG portfolio and liquids sales, which account for around 90% of total sales, the analysts explained.
Despite a December quarter 2025 adjusted earnings ‘miss’ for Capstone Copper, according to FNArena’s Corporate Results Monitor (https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/03/05/fnarena-corporate-results-monitor-05-03-2026/), the company, which has a December year-end, tops the earnings upgrade table as broker models roll forward from 2025 forecasts to an improved outlook for 2026.
For similar reasons, Life360 appears second on the earnings upgrade table despite a result ‘miss’ partly due to market scepticism around monthly active user (MAU) guidance. See https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/03/05/life360-growth-deferred-or-denied/ for broker views and why the share price reacted so negatively on results day.
Following interim results, average FY26 earnings forecasts for global networking infrastructure company Megaport and Australian property-technology company Pexa Group also rose by 38% and 23%, respectively.
Megaport's result disappointed due to weak earnings guidance.
Pexa’s result did materially exceed consensus expectations as detailed at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/03/05/pexa-preparing-for-a-big-year-ahead/
Bapcor, Life360, and Objective Corp registered the top three falls in average target prices last week of -33%, -17% and -15%, respectively, corresponding with ‘misses’ in the Monitor.
On the flipside, the largest percentage increase in target last week was only 7% for Newmont Corp after Morgans raised its gold price forecasts.
The broker remains bullish on precious metals following the reporting season, arguing the key opportunity lays in broader sector exposure rather than stock selection.
It’s noted spot gold continues to trade near record highs, balance sheets are strengthening and, aside from elevated royalty payments, material margin compression has not emerged.
In short, Morgans suggested the sector remains positioned for a further re-rating. The broker’s target for Newmont was raised to $214 from $187 and the rating upgraded to Buy from Accumulate.
For reasons discussed in the Monitor, Lendlease (miss), TPG Telecom (in line), and Strike Energy (miss) head up the earnings downgrade table below.
Despite an impressive earnings beat, Neuren Pharmaceuticals appears fourth on the earnings downgrade list. As with other companies with a December year-end, the rollover of broker forecasts into a new financial year can result in a weaker forecast for the new year replacing the previous period in financial modeling.
Total Buy ratings for the seven stockbrokerages daily monitored by FNArena still sit at an historically elevated percentage of 65.51%.
With only 7.74% in Sell ratings, this leaves 26.75% for Neutral/Holds.
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BAPCOR LIMITED ((BAP)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by Citi .B/H/S: 0/4/1
Citi's updated modeling (post cap raise) has resulted in a target price cut to 76c. Two days ago, before taking into account the significant dilution, that price target was set at $1.25.
The other change is an upgrade to Neutral from Sell, as the share price has quickly de-rated to 71c.
See also BAP downgrade.
BOSS ENERGY LIMITED ((BOE)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 2/2/2
Bell Potter found the first half results from Boss Energy "lacklustre", impacted by the accounting treatment of inventory sales. Operating cash flow remains robust while costs were higher than expected.
The review of the Honeymoon project is progressing with drill configurations underway targeting areas around well fields B1-B5. The broker expects results will begin to filter through at the beginning of April and should it prove successful the stock could re-rate strongly.
Rating is upgraded to Buy from Hold following a deterioration in the share price. Target is $1.95.
BEACH ENERGY LIMITED ((BPT)) Upgrade to Hold from Trim by Morgans .B/H/S: 0/3/4
The US/Israel/Iran conflict has triggered one of the largest oil shocks in decades, notes Morgans, freezing tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and lifting Brent to circa US$82/bbl, with around -13mb/d of oil flows disrupted.
The analyst explains pre-conflict fundamentals were bearish, but the outlook is now binary: a swift reopening could see Brent at US$75-80/bbl, while prolonged disruption could push prices above US$90-100/bbl.
It's recommended active investors take partial profits but retain exposure, avoiding chasing the rally and adding on pullbacks. Longer-term holders should trim modestly, as higher oil prices support LNG earnings, balance sheets and growth optionality, notes the broker.
Among stocks under coverage, Morgans favours Woodside Energy and Amplitude Energy, noting their operational and strategic investment case has not changed.
Overall, the analysts apply an oil shock premium of 10% to their 12-month target prices for Woodside, Santos and Karoon Energy shares.
The target for Beach Energy rises to $1.25 from $1.09 and the rating is upgraded to Hold from Trim.
COLES GROUP LIMITED ((COL)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 7/0/0
Coles Group deliveer the first half result that was slightly softer than Morgans expected. The liquor segment remain subdued amid competitive intensity, the broker notes, particularly in the second quarter as Endeavour Group ((EDV)) raised its investment in pricing and promotions.
Morgans downgrades earnings estimates for FY26-28 slightly and retains an unchanged target of $22.90 as valuation is rolled forward.
The business continues to perform well within key supermarket metrics and the recent pullback in the share price provides an attractive entry point so the rating is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold.
HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED ((HVN)) Upgrade to Hold from Lighten by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 3/3/0
Harvey Norman reported a sharp slowdown in sales growth in the dominant Australian business in the last six weeks of 1H26 to -1.2% from 6.4% earlier in the half, with first-half profit before tax missing market expectations, Ord Minnett notes, sparking a -9% sell-off.
Further denting sentiment towards Harvey Norman was the weak start to the second half, with sales growth in January of 3.6%, well short of the market's forecast for 5.7% growth in the second half of FY26.
Ord Minnett has cut its earnings estimates to incorporate the rising interest rate environment, which has a deeper impact on Harvey Norman’s customers than those of its rivals, the negative effect of the stronger Australian dollar on translation of offshore earnings, and delays to achieving profitability in the UK.
Target falls to $5.80 from $6.20. The share price sell-off leads to an upgrade to Hold from Lighten.
LIFESTYLE COMMUNITIES LIMITED ((LIC)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/3/0
Ord Minnett reviews its Property sector coverage following the reporting season.
The target for Lifestyle Communities rises to $5.35 from $5.10 and the rating is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold.
LIGHT & WONDER INC ((LNW)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 6/0/0
Light & Wonder produced a 2025 result that was largely in line. Morgans notes Grover continues to track ahead of expectations and North American outright sales hit a record.
The broker was encouraged by management's comments that AI was both a growth opportunity and a defensive moat.
Morgans believes the technology will enhance the competitive edge of the business rather than erode, while the recent weakness in the share price appears disconnected from the durability of land-based earnings.
Rating is upgraded to Buy from Accumulate while the target is lowered to $195 from $200.
MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED ((MFG)) Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 0/4/0
Morgan Stanley suggests Magellan Financial's plan to merge with Barrenjoey will improve its earnings growth prospects. The broker upgrades FY27-28 EPS estimates by 6-11% to reflect higher Barrenjoey earnings and a higher equity stake.
The broker's pro forma analysis shows a complete merger would be modestly dilutive at first but lift medium-term growth. On completion of the merger, Barrenjoey and Barclays will own 32% and 5% of the new Magellan Financial, respectively, with 63.5% of the latter in free float.
Barrenjoey is a market facing business which has less diversity compared with larger peers such as Macquarie Group ((MQG)), making it potentially more cyclical, Morgan Stanley comments.
Rating is upgraded to Equal-weight from Underweight and the target is lifted to $9.20 from $8.35. Industry view is In-Line.
NEWMONT CORPORATION REGISTERED ((NEM)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 5/0/0
Morgans remains bullish on precious metals following the reporting season, arguing the key opportunity lays in broader sector exposure rather than stock selection.
The broker notes spot gold continues to trade near record highs, balance sheets are strengthening and, aside from elevated royalty payments, material margin compression has not emerged.
At current spot prices and given the prevailing macro backdrop, the analysts believe the sector remains positioned for further re-rating despite recent share price gains.
Gold price forecasts are raised by 5% for FY26, 11% for FY27, 10% for FY28, 1% for FY29 and 23% on a long-term basis.
The target price for Newmont Corp rises to $214 from $187 and the rating is upgraded to Buy from Accumulate.
OBJECTIVE CORPORATION LIMITED ((OCL)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/1/0
Morgans notes first half results from Objective Corp were slightly ahead of forecasts at the net profit and EBITDA lines. Annual recurring revenue grew 12% although this was -3.2% below expectations largely because of timing.
Forecasts for EBITDA are reduced by -4% across FY26-28 amid adjustments for ARR guidance and expectations around the timing of investment as well as currency movements.
The broker envisages significant opportunity for the business to scale its divisions, having a defensive government customer base and long history of growth. Rating is upgraded to Buy from Accumulate and the target lowered to $16.70 from $20.00.
STOCKLAND ((SGP)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 4/1/0
Ord Minnett reviews its Property sector coverage following the reporting season.
For Stockland, the broker upgrades to Buy from Accumulate with its target price unchanged at $5.90, noting the share price has fallen -16% year to date.
The stock is trading on a price to net tangible assets multiple of around 1.1x, which Ord Minnett views as attractive given the quality of earnings and growth prospects.
The residential development portfolio is expected to generate a post-tax FY26 operating margin above 15%, implying a return on invested capital of around 11%.
VICINITY CENTRES ((VCX)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/2/1
Ord Minnett reviews its Property sector coverage following the reporting season.
The target for Vicinity Centres is kept at $2.50 and the rating is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold.
VISTA GROUP INTERNATIONAL LIMITED ((VGL)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 2/0/0
Following Vista International's FY25 results, UBS lowers its target price to NZ$2.50 from NZ$2.80 and upgrades to Buy from Neutral.
The broker argues concerns around weak box office and SaaS sustainability are overdone after share price underperformance of nearly -30% year to date versus the NZX50.
FY25 revenue of $164m rose 10% and earnings (EBITDA) of NZ$28m were in line with the consensus estimate and ahead of UBS’s $26m forecast, with margins expanding to 17% from 14%.
FY26 revenue guidance of NZ$176-182m and an 18-20% EBITDA margin implies to the analyst earnings (EBITDA) of NZ$31.5-36m, broadly in line with the consensus estimate.
WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED ((WHC)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/3/1
Ord Minnett upgrades Whitehaven Coal to Buy from Accumulate and lifts its target price to $9.80/sh from $9.40 (+4%) as the broker assesses energy-supply risks tied to the Iran–US conflict and disruptions through the Hormuz Strait.
Ord Minnett notes thermal coal futures' rise by around 12% to roughly US$140/t and argues Whitehaven’s seaborne thermal coal exposure (about 36% of revenue) provides leverage to higher prices.
A key metric is the broker’s scenario analysis suggesting an underlying 13% FCF yield if prices track futures, versus an 8% base-case yield.
WAYPOINT REIT LIMITED ((WPR)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/0/1
Morgans raises its target for Waypoint REIT to $2.75 from $2.70 and upgrades to Accumulate from Hold following "solid" FY25 results.
Funds from operations (FFO) of 16.64cpu were in line with upgraded guidance, while FY26 guidance of 17.14cpu implies around 3% growth and sits modestly ahead of the broker’s prior forecast.
Rental income rose to $165.5m and the net tangible asset (NTA) metric increased 5% to $2.90, supported by revaluation gains, the analyst explains.
Morgans highlights the portfolio’s defensive profile, with 99.9% occupancy and 94.1% of income derived from Viva Energy ((VEA), which supplies circa 25% of Australia's fuel needs.
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