Australia | 10:30 AM
Despite recent fears around demographic factors weighing on a2 Milk Co’s performance, analysts note supportive Chinese policies and highlight market share gains.
- a2 Milk Co delivered strong interim performance across segments & products
- Analysts and management agree the company remains a market share story
- Product innovation, margin expansion and reduced US losses assist
- Chinese policies seen supporting childbirth and assisting ageing demographics
By Mark Woodruff
Shares in branded dairy nutrition company a2 Milk Co ((A2M)) received a boost in mid-February following the release of a strong interim performance across all segments and products, leading to upgraded FY26 guidance.
While demographic pressures suggest overall infant milk formula (IMF) demand remains in long-term structural decline, Jarden explains a2 Milk remains a market share gain story.
Indeed, management noted further share gains in the period driven by ongoing strong execution and new product development, including a2 Genesis Early Life, two new China-label products in development, and the first upgrade to the a2 Platinum formulation since 2022.
The company now holds 8.2% share of the China IMF market, up from 8.0% in FY25, and remains a top-4 player in the China market, with management targeting 10% share over the next few years.
From underlying revenue growth of around 15%, Morgan Stanley highlights product innovation contributed roughly one-third, driven by a2 Genesis, the Other Nutritional Products segment, and expansion in the Vietnam market.
Profit of $112m came in 7% ahead of the consensus forecast with Citi highlighting the ‘beat’ was across all key lines of the Profit & Loss statement, with both sales and earnings margin also exceeding consensus estimates.
UBS believes profit could double by FY30, driven by infant formula share gains across both English Label and China label, alongside margin expansion from internalised manufacturing and reduced US losses.
More result details
The interim gross profit margin fell to 48.9% from 50% a year ago primarily due to a2 Pokeno under-utilisation manufacturing losses, according to management. The earnings margin remained flat at 15.6%.
China Label IMF revenue grew by 6.5% while English label IMF jumped by 20.9% thanks to a growing contribution from a2 Genesis, the company’s ultra-premium, probiotic human milk oligosaccharide (HMO) product.
Faster growth for English Label benefits the company given 19.1% market share compared to 5.6% for China label, Citi explains.
Liquid milk sales in A&NZ and USA grew by 11.9% and 29.3%, respectively, while Other Nutritionals sales also increased by 69% or, 42.9% excluding a2 Pokeno to demonstrate underlying organic growth.
Management expects to achieve its medium-term revenue ambition of around NZ$2bn this financial year, one year ahead of schedule.
Margin expansion
Compared to the prior year, interim revenue and earnings grew by 18.8% and 18.4%, respectively, to reach NZ$993.5m and $155m, while the underlying earnings margin rose by 0.9 percentage points to 16.6%.
Long term, Macquarie continues to see earnings margins of around 20% as achievable with greater scale and returns from the Pokeno facility.
This broker also highlights current operating leverage, with earnings growth of 26% (excluding Pokeno losses) outpacing revenue growth.
Earnings exceeded the UBS forecast by NZ$8m, mainly reflecting stronger Other Nutritionals sales, supported by new China seniors milk powder and kids UHT products, alongside lower marketing spend.
It’s believed entry into the US$8bn China paediatric supplement market with four China-label products should further lift Other Nutritionals sales and margins from FY27.
By reporting segment, respective revenues for China & Other Asia, A&NZ, and USA grew by 20.3% to NZ$739m, 8.6% to NZ$171.3m, and 29% to $NZ483.2m.
Management upgraded FY26 revenue growth guidance again to mid double-digit from low to mid double-digits and tightened EBITDA margin guidance to circa 15.5%-16.0%.
Given 19% revenue growth achieved in the first half, Macquarie notes management requires 10%-14% second half growth to meet the new guidance range.
Jarden notes the revenue guidance uplift reflects stronger Liquid and Other Nutritionals revenues (less so IMF) and marketing intensity tracking at the low end of the continuing-basis range.
There was a -NZ$9.8m EBITDA loss in the half as the business prepares for a Synlait Milk ((SM1))-to-Pokeno transition of a2 Platinum in 1H27.
Strategy shift
The company’s strategic centre has shifted toward greater supply-chain control.
Management completed the acquisition of the Pokeno nutritional manufacturing facility (with attached China label IMF registrations) in September last year and in mid-October announced the divestment of its 75% holding Mataura Valley Milk.
The Pokeno acquisition is designed to increase end-to-end control over China label manufacturing and registrations, reduce reliance on third-party manufacturers, and enable product relaunches under the a2M brand subject to China regulatory approvals.
China go-to-market is a multi-channel strategy (offline mother & baby stores, online platforms, and cross-border e-commerce), while A&NZ/US liquid milk is a higher-frequency retail business with emphasis on core and lactose-free offerings.
Management commentary highlights channel expansion and innovation as key growth levers.
Illustrating current product concentration, during the first half China label and English and other label IMF generated NZ$324.9m and NZ$362.4m in revenue, respectively, along with liquid milk of NZ$198.1m, Other Nutritionals (NZ$107.2m) and minor “other revenue”.
Capital Management
Morgans highlights the company generates strong cash flow and has a strong balance sheet.
Lease-adjusted operating cash flow (OCF) was NZ$92.3m compared to NZ$75.9m in 1H25.
A 1H26 fully franked interim dividend of NZ11.5 cents (up from NZ8.5 cents in the prior year) was declared compared to the consensus estimate of NZ10.19 cents.
As previously announced, the board intends to declare a NZ$300m special dividend subject to regulatory approvals being received in connection with amendments to the two existing a2 Pokeno China label registrations for use under the a2 brand.
Birth rates
Citi highlights potential tailwinds from China’s draft 15th Five-Year Plan, which aims to create a “childbirth-friendly society” and promote the “silver economy”.
It’s believed policies supporting childbirth and ageing demographics could benefit sales of a2 Milk’s infant formula and seniors products.
Measures include expanded maternity insurance coverage, guaranteed maternity leave and regulated support for assisted reproductive technologies such as IVF.
Additional childcare subsidies and targeted housing incentives for families with two or more children are also proposed, highlights the broker.
Beyond 2026, management anticipates the birth rate will decline by low-single digits. The company expects earnings growth driven by further market share gains.
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