Weekly Reports | Mar 23 2026
This story features BREVILLE GROUP LIMITED, and other companies.
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The company is included in ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS
Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.
By Mark Woodruff
Guide:
The FNArena database tabulates the views of seven major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, and UBS.
For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.
Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.
Summary
Period: Monday March 16 to Friday March 20, 2026
Total Upgrades: 14
Total Downgrades: 5
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 66.06%; Hold 26.64%; Sell 7.30%
FNArena recorded fourteen upgrades and five downgrades from the seven brokers monitored daily across ASX-listed companies for the week ending Friday, March 20, 2026.
Buy ratings remain elevated at 66.06% (all-time record high), with Sell ratings at just 7.30%, leaving 26.64% as Neutral/Hold.
The ongoing volume of rating upgrades suggests share prices are trading at depressed levels, pointing to underlying bear market conditions much worse than the relatively minor losses at the index level would suggest.
Percentage falls in average target prices for the week exceeded increases in the tables below, while declines in average earnings forecasts also outweighed upgrades, particularly across the top half of the lists.
Concerns over acid and diesel disruptions tied to the Middle East conflict weighed on uranium player Lotus Resources, which heads the forecast earnings downgrade table.
Elemental sulphur drives sulphuric acid pricing, a key input in uranium leaching, while diesel (linked to oil markets) underpins mining fleets and remote power generation.
Macquarie lowered its FY26 EPS forecasts for Lotus by -171% on higher pre-production costs and lower U308 sales, noting risks to the ramp up at Kayelekera as the Strait of Hormuz is the key to stabilising the supply chain of sulphuric acid.
While 29Metals appears next on the earnings downgrade table, this is solely due to new and upbeat research coverage by Morgans. When added to existing coverage in the FNArena database, new earnings forecasts by this broker drag down the average forecast.
29Metals has been in struggle street for a while, but is seen as an attractive copper exposure with clear catalysts. The recent equity raising is thought to provide flexibility on the balance sheet to pursue initiatives at Golden Grove in Western Australia to restore grades and operating flexibility, as well as a potential Capricorn Copper restart in Queensland.
Combined with a bullish long-term copper outlook, Morgans envisages upside for the 29Metals share price from current levels and begins with a Buy rating and 54 cent target, which compares favourably to last week’s close of 34 cents.
New Hope and Liontown Resources follow next on the earnings downgrade list, with the FNArena Corporate Results Monitor https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/03/18/fnarena-corporate-results-monitor-18-03-2026/ showing a respective ‘miss’ and ‘beat’ across the March-July 2026 reporting period.
Both New Hope and Liontown’s ratings were upgraded by two separate brokers.
A full account of analyst views on Liontown’s result is available at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/03/17/liontown-ramps-up-as-lithium-price-recovers/
Northern Star Resources is next after management delivered yet another production guidance downgrade.
Despite elevated gold prices, 2026 has been a challenging year for the company. A summary of broker views explains why at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/03/18/when-might-northern-stars-woes-end/
Northern Star also appears third in the negative change to average target price list, below ImpediMed and Life360.
ImpediMed remains a higher-risk exposure, with Ord Minnett highlighting near-term funding access as the key concern. The company’s core product, SOZO, is a medical device using bioimpedance spectroscopy (BIS) to measure fluid levels in the body.
The share price has declined around -56% over the past six months, reflecting weaker US SOZO sales, slower growth in annual recurring revenue, and delay to operating cash flow breakeven.
Ord Minnett identified three potential catalysts for a material re-rating, including a re-acceleration in US SOZO sales from 3Q26, early execution in Heart Health and Weight Management markets, and potential strategic interest from global women’s health med-tech players.
The analysts lowered their target for ImpediMed to 5 cents from 12 cents on weaker earnings forecasts and a higher weighted average cost of capital assumption.
The broker suggested the company’s strategic value is underappreciated at current levels, with improving sales traction potentially attracting interest from global med-tech players such as Hologic and Danaher.
After a further review of Life360’s 4Q results on March 3, Morgan Stanley lowered its target to $30 from $50.
While the broker raised its earnings forecasts, the broader sector de-rating and trading patterns observed through 2022-2023 prompted a reduction in the applied valuation multiple (in line with the company’s post-listing average), despite improvements in scale, track record and profitability.
Turning to rises in average price targets, Sims and Viva Energy lead the week’s table with increases of 8% and 7%, respectively.
Following ongoing strength in both the non-ferrous and memory chip markets, management at Sims provided an upbeat trading update last week.
FY26 underlying earnings guidance of $350m-$400m came in around 25% ahead of consensus forecast, driven by a stronger-than-expected outlook for Sims Lifecycle Services (SLS) and the Metals division.
UBS noted a fivefold half-on-half increase in pricing for double data rate 4 (DDR4), a widely used generation of computer memory in servers, PCs and data centres.
The target for Sims was raised to $30.00 from $26.50. UBS’ channel checks indicate under-supply of memory chips should continue to support DDR4 pricing through 2027.
Among the beneficiaries of the Iranian conflict, due to sharply higher refining margins driven by elevated oil prices, are Australia’s largest downstream fuel and energy companies, Viva Energy and Ampol.
The analysts at UBS assumed modest margin compression for Viva in the Commercial & Industrial segment, along with lower fuel volumes and sales per store in Convenience & Mobility due to consumer response to higher fuel prices, although Refining (Energy & Infrastructure) tailwinds remain the dominant driver.
Ord Minnett reiterated its Buy ratings for Viva Energy and Ampol, highlighting both as preferred exposures to the current commodity price spike given their greater leverage to refining margins relative to producers’ exposure to oil and LNG prices.
Viva also heads up the week’s table for positive change to earnings forecasts with a rise of 50%, followed by Block and Ora Banda Mining on 45% and 25%, respectively.
Block is next on the earnings upgrade table after Citi noted its growth outlook is improving. It’s thought GenAI initiatives are driving potential gross profit upside and stronger product velocity.
AI-led tools including Cash App Green, Moneybot and Managerbot have the potential to lift inflows, monetisation and seller engagement across Cash App and Square, suggested the broker. A Buy rating and target of US$85 were retained.
Impacting on the earnings and target price tables below, last week UBS initiated research coverage with Buy ratings on five gold stocks.
In order of preference these were Pantoro Gold, Westgold Resources, Minerals 260, Catalyst Metals, and Ora Banda Mining.
Subscribers can see the respective target prices via The Australian Broker Call Report and Stock Analysis on the FNArena website.
The broker’s investment thesis assumed strong volume growth alongside elevated gold prices, providing a “healthy pathway” to higher earnings and cash flow across the sector.
Serko appears fifth on the week’s table for negative change to target prices after Citi reduced its target by -17% to $2.85. The company is also fourth placed on the FY26 earnings upgrade list, though the size of the percentage change is heavily influenced by the small numbers involved.
Following Serko’s Investor Day, Citi lowered its FY27 forecasts to reflect Middle East uncertainty, though the broader outlook for the Buy-rated company remains positive, in the broker’s view, supported by ongoing development of Serko.ai.
Serko.ai is a multi-agent corporate travel platform featuring a conversational interface that enables end-to-end booking and trip management.
Upgrade
BREVILLE GROUP LIMITED ((BRG)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 6/0/0
Breville Group has secured primary partner status in Best Buy’s small domestic appliance category, Ord Minnett notes, following the latter’s move to consolidate suppliers.
Breville rolled out store-in-store formats across around 300 Best Buy locations during late 2025 as part of Best Buy’s vendor rationalisation.
Ord Minnett views the shift to fewer brands as a structural change in the US retail channel, providing selected suppliers with greater shelf space and stronger positioning.
The new arrangement is seen as a competitive advantage for Breville. Ord Minnett upgrades to Buy from Accumulate and retains a target price of $37.20.
EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED ((EVN)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/2/2
Ord Minnett notes gold equities are down -31% since the Middle East conflict began, having underperformed the US dollar gold price by -20%.
The broker suggests this reflects the broader equity sell-off and profit-taking but performance has also been affected by company specific factors and margin concerns.
Investors need to be selective and focus their holdings on companies that have valuation appeal, strong fundamentals and near-term cash flow, Ord Minnett advises.
Given the pullback, the broker upgrades Evolution Mining to Accumulate from Hold. Target is $13.10 and unchanged.
GENESIS MINERALS LIMITED ((GMD)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 5/0/0
Ord Minnett notes gold equities are down -31% since the Middle East conflict began, having underperformed the US dollar gold price by -20%.
The broker suggests this reflects the broader equity sell-off and profit-taking but performance has also been affected by company specific factors and margin concerns.
Investors need to be selective and focus their holdings on companies that have valuation appeal, strong fundamentals and near-term cash flow, Ord Minnett advises.
Given the pullback, the broker upgrades Genesis Minerals to Buy from Accumulate. Target is steady at $8.15.
LIFESTYLE COMMUNITIES LIMITED ((LIC)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 1/3/0
Citi upgrades its rating for Lifestyle Communities to Buy from Neutral after media reports of Hometown Australia acquiring 11.9m shares from HMC Capital ((HMC)), representing around a 9.7% stake.
Shares were purchased at $4.90 each, an 8% premium to the previous close of $4.53.
Citi expects the transaction will reignite merger and acquisition discussion around Lifestyle Communities, noting uncertainty remains around margin recovery following recent results.
Unchanged target of $5.60.
LIONTOWN LIMITED ((LTR)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett and Upgrade to Hold from Trim by Morgans .B/H/S: 3/3/0
Liontown Resources reported a first-half FY26 loss smaller-than-expected by Ord Minnett as lower tax charges and inventory movements offset higher depreciation.
FY26 production guidance for Kathleen Valley was reaffirmed, targeting a 1.5Mtpa run rate by the March quarter and 2.8Mtpa by June 2027.
Management forecasts unit costs at between -$855-1045 per tonne versus the broker’s expectation of -$934 as underground ore replaces open pit feed.
The FY26 profit forecast is trimmed by -12% and FY27-FY28 estimates by -2-3% after incorporating higher finance and operating costs.
Ord Minnett upgrades to Accumulate from Hold and retains a target price of $1.90.
Liontown delivered a first half result that was better than Morgans expected.
The balance sheet strengthened materially following the equity raising and conversion of the LG Energy Solution notes. Commentary highlights the company now has improved financial flexibility as it ramps up production at Kathleen Valley.
A refresh of the 4mtpa expansion study has started and should be achieved through a combination of plant debottlenecking and accessing additional underground stopes.
Morgans upgrades to Hold from Trim, assessing the stock is trading at fair value and the shares have been weak in recent times following the LGES decision to sell down its full stake.
Target is reduced to $1.80 from $2.00, after updating modelling.
NEW HOPE CORPORATION LIMITED ((NHC)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Macquarie and Upgrade to Hold from Sell by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 0/4/0
Macquarie raises its target for New Hope to $4.80 from $4.40 and upgrades to Neutral from Underperform. The market backdrop has improved due to increased demand for seaborne thermal coal, substituting natural gas on Qatar’s LNG outage, the analyst explains.
Interim results (July year end) delivered earnings (EBITDA) in line with the broker’s forecast, while profit missed due to higher depreciation. A 10c dividend exceeded the consensus expectation by circa 70%.
The broker highlights improved exposure to thermal coal prices at spot, with earnings and free cash flow (FCF) forecast to rise sharply into FY27 if current pricing persists.
No material upgrades to longer-term forecasts have been applied, though near-term earnings benefit from stronger coal pricing and operational recovery catalysts, the analyst explains.
New Hope posted first half underlying earnings of $215m and statutory net profit of $54m, which were below Bell Potter’s estimates. A $0.10 fully franked interim dividend was declared.
The broker notes conflict in the Middle East has raised the alarm over energy security and driven higher prices across the energy commodity complex. The spot thermal coal price is US$132/t, up 23% compared with the December quarter average.
The broker upgrades to Hold from Sell, noting the company’s low-cost operations will continue to underpin margins through the coal price cycle. Target is raised to $4.50 from $4.10.
PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED ((PDN)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 4/1/1
Post the Paladin Energy share price pullback and site visit, Macquarie upgrades the stock to Outperform from Neutral, with target price lowered by -4% to $13.50.
EPS forecasts are lowered by -30% for FY26 and -37% for FY27 due to more elevated operating cost assumptions at Langer Heinrich.
The U308 producer is viewed as well positioned to beat FY26 production guidance and Patterson Lake South is making good progress on the development, with provincial approval recently received.
At current levels, the stock is seen offering value at an implied uranium price of US$77.20/lb and is the top pick for ASX-exposure to uranium producers.
PERSEUS MINING LIMITED ((PRU)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 3/1/0
Perseus Mining has sold its Meyas Sand gold project in Sudan to China’s Matrix Resources for what Ord Minnett asserts is a “strong” price of US$260m.
This is more than double the value previously ascribed to the asset given the difficulties in a country that is enduring a continuing civil war.
Ord Minnett raises FY26 estimates for EPS by 14.8% to incorporate the net sale proceeds, while trimming FY27 and FY28 by -2.2% and -2.5%, respectively.
The broker considers the company one of the best options to gain exposure to the African gold industry and the divestment boosts the quality of its portfolio.
Target is raised to $6.80 from $6.50 and the rating is upgraded to Buy from Accumulate.
REGION GROUP ((RGN)) Upgrade to Buy from Sell by UBS .B/H/S: 3/2/1
UBS recommends ongoing caution on the Australian real estate sector in the near term, citing likely consensus earnings downgrades and persistent inflation risks.
The broker notes oil prices could rise to US$120-150/bbl if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for 2-6 weeks.
The current environment is thought to echo 2022, when REITs fell around -30% peak-to-trough amid the Ukraine energy crisis and a 300bps rise in the cash rate.
Providing some offset, the starting point for the cash rate in this tightening cycle is more restrictive at 3.6% versus 0.1%, while valuations are considered undemanding, the analysts note.
Across coverage, the broker lowers its price targets by -7% on average.
UBS is cautious on residential exposures and remains positive on retail REITs.
Region Group’s target rises by 9.1% to $2.40. Rating upgraded to Buy from Sell. The broker highlights defensive characteristics with hedging of 87% of 70% for FY27 and FY28, respectively. The ongoing buyback is also seen as supportive.
SIMS LIMITED ((SGM)) Upgrade to Hold from Sell by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/1/1
Ord Minnett raises its target for Sims to $20.00 from $18.20 and upgrades to Hold from Sell after management raised FY26 earnings (EBIT) to $350m-$400m, driven by strong performance in Sims Lifecycle Services (SLS).
Second-half earnings for SLS are expected to rise more than six-fold year-on-year, supported by firm pricing for second-hand Double Data Rate 4 Random Access Memory (DDR4).
Stronger metals prices in North America support upgrades to the broker’s earnings forecasts, while Australasian ferrous markets remain subdued.
SONIC HEALTHCARE LIMITED ((SHL)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by Citi .B/H/S: 3/4/0
Citi lowers its target for Sonic Healthcare to $21.50 from $22.00 after adjusting for exchange rate movements. The rating is upgraded to Neutral from Sell given a more balanced risk/reward scenario, in the broker’s view.
While Australian pathology volumes in January appear slightly lower year-on-year, Sonic outperformed the broader market in 1H26, the analyst highlights.
Ongoing concerns around US operations and persistent group cost pressures are noted with further downside risks not ruled out.
TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED ((TWE)) Upgrade to Hold from Lighten by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 0/4/2
Ord Minnett upgrades Treasury Wine Estates to Hold from Lighten, having reviewed its modelling.
This resulted from increased debt assumptions as the company deals with tight grape supply in both the US and Australia. Management has signalled the contracts are relatively inflexible.
The broker expects inventory will increase again in FY27 before scaling down in following years. This assessment drives increases in financial debt assumptions over the next three fiscal years.
Ord Minnett acknowledges the business is some distance from breaching banking covenants, as operating earnings would have to fall a further -27% in FY26 to instigate a covenant breach, considered unlikely. Target is $4.50.
Downgrade
BWP TRUST ((BWP)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS .B/H/S: 1/2/0
UBS recommends ongoing caution on the Australian real estate sector in the near term, citing likely consensus earnings downgrades and persistent inflation risks.
The broker notes oil prices could rise to US$120-150/bbl if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for 2-6 weeks.
The current environment is thought to echo 2022, when REITs fell around -30% peak-to-trough amid the Ukraine energy crisis and a 300bps rise in the cash rate.
Providing some offset, the starting point for the cash rate in this tightening cycle is more restrictive at 3.6% versus 0.1%, while valuations are considered undemanding, the analysts note.
Across coverage, the broker lowers its price targets by -7% on average.
UBS is cautious on residential exposures and remains positive on retail REITs.
For BWP Trust, the rating is downgraded to Neutral from Buy on relative valuation and the target falls by -28c to $3.89.
IMMUTEP LIMITED ((IMM)) Downgrade to Speculative Hold from Speculative Buy by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 1/1/0
Immutep’s lead drug, Efti, has failed the futility analysis in its global phase 3 trial for non-small cell lung cancer.
The analysis has indicated the risk/benefit profile did not meet the pre-defined threshold at this interim time and therefore it is futile to continue the trial.
Bell Potter finds this “bitterly disappointing” and a “surprising outcome” considering the strength of the phase 1 and phase 2 data.
The failure of the trial makes it near impossible for any further development prospects for Efti in other indications, although the company will continue to review data.
The broker downgrades to a Speculative Hold rating from a Speculative Buy rating. Target is reduced to $0.07 from $0.65.
QUBE HOLDINGS LIMITED ((QUB)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 0/3/0
Citi upgrades the Qube Holdings target price to $5.15 from $4.90 and downgrades the stock to Neutral from Buy.
SCENTRE GROUP ((SCG)) Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 2/2/1
UBS recommends ongoing caution on the Australian real estate sector in the near term, citing likely consensus earnings downgrades and persistent inflation risks.
The broker notes oil prices could rise to US$120-150/bbl if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for 2-6 weeks.
The current environment is thought to echo 2022, when REITs fell around -30% peak-to-trough amid the Ukraine energy crisis and a 300bps rise in the cash rate.
Providing some offset, the starting point for the cash rate in this tightening cycle is more restrictive at 3.6% versus 0.1%, while valuations are considered undemanding, the analysts note.
Across coverage, the broker lowers its price targets by -7% on average.
UBS is cautious on residential exposures and remains positive on retail REITs.
For Scentre Group, the rating is downgraded to Sell from Neutral, reflecting elevated interest rate risk with gearing (including subordinated notes) around 38% and hedging declining to 38% by FY27. Target falls by -14.6% to $3.50.
STOCKLAND ((SGP)) Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 3/2/0
Morgan Stanley downgrades Stockland to Equal-weight from Overweight in the face of a slowing residential market and potential downward earnings revisions. Target price is lowered to $5.50 from $6.60.
The analyst reiterates an Equal-weight rating on Mirvac ((MGR)). Target unchanged at $2.40.
The downgrade in Stockland is due to weaker sentiment around higher RBA rates and the potential removal of CGT discounts for property investors, which could weigh on buyer sentiment.
Price to earnings ratings for both stocks remain above the 2018/22 troughs, albeit the stocks’ valuations have de-rated by around -20% in the last 6-7 months. Value is there but not considered as “convincing”.
Morgan Stanley expects just 7,956 lot settlements in FY27 for Stockland, from 8,110, with consensus at 8,580 lots. FY27/FY28 funds from operations forecasts fall around -3%.
Industry View: In-Line.
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CHARTS
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BRG - BREVILLE GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BWP - BWP TRUST
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: EVN - EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: GMD - GENESIS MINERALS LIMITED
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For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: IMM - IMMUTEP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: LIC - LIFESTYLE COMMUNITIES LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: LTR - LIONTOWN LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MGR - MIRVAC GROUP
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For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: RGN - REGION GROUP
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