Weekly Reports | 10:00 AM
Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.
By Mark Woodruff
Guide:
The FNArena database tabulates the views of seven major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, and UBS.
For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.
Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.
Summary
Period: Monday March 16 to Friday March 20, 2026
Total Upgrades: 14
Total Downgrades: 5
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 66.06%; Hold 26.64%; Sell 7.30%
FNArena recorded fourteen upgrades and five downgrades from the seven brokers monitored daily across ASX-listed companies for the week ending Friday, March 20, 2026.
Buy ratings remain elevated at 66.06% (all-time record high), with Sell ratings at just 7.30%, leaving 26.64% as Neutral/Hold.
The ongoing volume of rating upgrades suggests share prices are trading at depressed levels, pointing to underlying bear market conditions much worse than the relatively minor losses at the index level would suggest.
Percentage falls in average target prices for the week exceeded increases in the tables below, while declines in average earnings forecasts also outweighed upgrades, particularly across the top half of the lists.
Concerns over acid and diesel disruptions tied to the Middle East conflict weighed on uranium player Lotus Resources, which heads the forecast earnings downgrade table.
Elemental sulphur drives sulphuric acid pricing, a key input in uranium leaching, while diesel (linked to oil markets) underpins mining fleets and remote power generation.
Macquarie lowered its FY26 EPS forecasts for Lotus by -171% on higher pre-production costs and lower U308 sales, noting risks to the ramp up at Kayelekera as the Strait of Hormuz is the key to stabilising the supply chain of sulphuric acid.
While 29Metals appears next on the earnings downgrade table, this is solely due to new and upbeat research coverage by Morgans. When added to existing coverage in the FNArena database, new earnings forecasts by this broker drag down the average forecast.
29Metals has been in struggle street for a while, but is seen as an attractive copper exposure with clear catalysts. The recent equity raising is thought to provide flexibility on the balance sheet to pursue initiatives at Golden Grove in Western Australia to restore grades and operating flexibility, as well as a potential Capricorn Copper restart in Queensland.
Combined with a bullish long-term copper outlook, Morgans envisages upside for the 29Metals share price from current levels and begins with a Buy rating and 54 cent target, which compares favourably to last week’s close of 34 cents.
New Hope and Liontown Resources follow next on the earnings downgrade list, with the FNArena Corporate Results Monitor https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/03/18/fnarena-corporate-results-monitor-18-03-2026/ showing a respective ‘miss’ and ‘beat’ across the March-July 2026 reporting period.
Both New Hope and Liontown’s ratings were upgraded by two separate brokers.
A full account of analyst views on Liontown’s result is available at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/03/17/liontown-ramps-up-as-lithium-price-recovers/
Northern Star Resources is next after management delivered yet another production guidance downgrade.
Despite elevated gold prices, 2026 has been a challenging year for the company. A summary of broker views explains why at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/03/18/when-might-northern-stars-woes-end/
Northern Star also appears third in the negative change to average target price list, below ImpediMed and Life360.
ImpediMed remains a higher-risk exposure, with Ord Minnett highlighting near-term funding access as the key concern. The company’s core product, SOZO, is a medical device using bioimpedance spectroscopy (BIS) to measure fluid levels in the body.
The share price has declined around -56% over the past six months, reflecting weaker US SOZO sales, slower growth in annual recurring revenue, and delay to operating cash flow breakeven.
Ord Minnett identified three potential catalysts for a material re-rating, including a re-acceleration in US SOZO sales from 3Q26, early execution in Heart Health and Weight Management markets, and potential strategic interest from global women’s health med-tech players.
The analysts lowered their target for ImpediMed to 5 cents from 12 cents on weaker earnings forecasts and a higher weighted average cost of capital assumption.
The broker suggested the company’s strategic value is underappreciated at current levels, with improving sales traction potentially attracting interest from global med-tech players such as Hologic and Danaher.
After a further review of Life360’s 4Q results on March 3, Morgan Stanley lowered its target to $30 from $50.
While the broker raised its earnings forecasts, the broader sector de-rating and trading patterns observed through 2022-2023 prompted a reduction in the applied valuation multiple (in line with the company’s post-listing average), despite improvements in scale, track record and profitability.
Turning to rises in average price targets, Sims and Viva Energy lead the week's table with increases of 8% and 7%, respectively.
Following ongoing strength in both the non-ferrous and memory chip markets, management at Sims provided an upbeat trading update last week.
FY26 underlying earnings guidance of $350m-$400m came in around 25% ahead of consensus forecast, driven by a stronger-than-expected outlook for Sims Lifecycle Services (SLS) and the Metals division.
UBS noted a fivefold half-on-half increase in pricing for double data rate 4 (DDR4), a widely used generation of computer memory in servers, PCs and data centres.
The target for Sims was raised to $30.00 from $26.50. UBS' channel checks indicate under-supply of memory chips should continue to support DDR4 pricing through 2027.
Among the beneficiaries of the Iranian conflict, due to sharply higher refining margins driven by elevated oil prices, are Australia’s largest downstream fuel and energy companies, Viva Energy and Ampol.
The analysts at UBS assumed modest margin compression for Viva in the Commercial & Industrial segment, along with lower fuel volumes and sales per store in Convenience & Mobility due to consumer response to higher fuel prices, although Refining (Energy & Infrastructure) tailwinds remain the dominant driver.
Ord Minnett reiterated its Buy ratings for Viva Energy and Ampol, highlighting both as preferred exposures to the current commodity price spike given their greater leverage to refining margins relative to producers’ exposure to oil and LNG prices.
Viva also heads up the week's table for positive change to earnings forecasts with a rise of 50%, followed by Block and Ora Banda Mining on 45% and 25%, respectively.
Block is next on the earnings upgrade table after Citi noted its growth outlook is improving. It's thought GenAI initiatives are driving potential gross profit upside and stronger product velocity.
AI-led tools including Cash App Green, Moneybot and Managerbot have the potential to lift inflows, monetisation and seller engagement across Cash App and Square, suggested the broker. A Buy rating and target of US$85 were retained.
Impacting on the earnings and target price tables below, last week UBS initiated research coverage with Buy ratings on five gold stocks.
In order of preference these were Pantoro Gold, Westgold Resources, Minerals 260, Catalyst Metals, and Ora Banda Mining.
Subscribers can see the respective target prices via The Australian Broker Call Report and Stock Analysis on the FNArena website.
The broker’s investment thesis assumed strong volume growth alongside elevated gold prices, providing a “healthy pathway” to higher earnings and cash flow across the sector.
Serko appears fifth on the week's table for negative change to target prices after Citi reduced its target by -17% to $2.85. The company is also fourth placed on the FY26 earnings upgrade list, though the size of the percentage change is heavily influenced by the small numbers involved.
Following Serko’s Investor Day, Citi lowered its FY27 forecasts to reflect Middle East uncertainty, though the broader outlook for the Buy-rated company remains positive, in the broker’s view, supported by ongoing development of Serko.ai.
Serko.ai is a multi-agent corporate travel platform featuring a conversational interface that enables end-to-end booking and trip management.
Upgrade
BREVILLE GROUP LIMITED ((BRG)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 6/0/0
Breville Group has secured primary partner status in Best Buy’s small domestic appliance category, Ord Minnett notes, following the latter’s move to consolidate suppliers.
Breville rolled out store-in-store formats across around 300 Best Buy locations during late 2025 as part of Best Buy's vendor rationalisation.
Ord Minnett views the shift to fewer brands as a structural change in the US retail channel, providing selected suppliers with greater shelf space and stronger positioning.
The new arrangement is seen as a competitive advantage for Breville. Ord Minnett upgrades to Buy from Accumulate and retains a target price of $37.20.
EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED ((EVN)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/2/2
Ord Minnett notes gold equities are down -31% since the Middle East conflict began, having underperformed the US dollar gold price by -20%.
The broker suggests this reflects the broader equity sell-off and profit-taking but performance has also been affected by company specific factors and margin concerns.
Investors need to be selective and focus their holdings on companies that have valuation appeal, strong fundamentals and near-term cash flow, Ord Minnett advises.
Given the pullback, the broker upgrades Evolution Mining to Accumulate from Hold. Target is $13.10 and unchanged.
GENESIS MINERALS LIMITED ((GMD)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 5/0/0
Ord Minnett notes gold equities are down -31% since the Middle East conflict began, having underperformed the US dollar gold price by -20%.
The broker suggests this reflects the broader equity sell-off and profit-taking but performance has also been affected by company specific factors and margin concerns.
Investors need to be selective and focus their holdings on companies that have valuation appeal, strong fundamentals and near-term cash flow, Ord Minnett advises.
Given the pullback, the broker upgrades Genesis Minerals to Buy from Accumulate. Target is steady at $8.15.
LIFESTYLE COMMUNITIES LIMITED ((LIC)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 1/3/0
Citi upgrades its rating for Lifestyle Communities to Buy from Neutral after media reports of Hometown Australia acquiring 11.9m shares from HMC Capital ((HMC)), representing around a 9.7% stake.
Shares were purchased at $4.90 each, an 8% premium to the previous close of $4.53.
Citi expects the transaction will reignite merger and acquisition discussion around Lifestyle Communities, noting uncertainty remains around margin recovery following recent results.
Unchanged target of $5.60.
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