Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes – 10-04-26

Array
(
    [0] => Array
        (
            [0] => ((29M))
            [1] => ((AMC))
            [2] => ((CNI))
            [3] => ((DMP))
            [4] => ((GYG))
            [5] => ((EMR))
            [6] => ((KMD))
            [7] => ((LOV))
            [8] => ((MPL))
            [9] => ((RRL))
            [10] => ((S32))
            [11] => ((AAI))
            [12] => ((APA))
            [13] => ((BOQ))
            [14] => ((CGF))
            [15] => ((GOZ))
            [16] => ((GSS))
            [17] => ((LIC))
            [18] => ((LTR))
            [19] => ((MGR))
            [20] => ((NHC))
            [21] => ((ORA))
            [22] => ((PLS))
            [23] => ((SGP))
            [24] => ((STO))
            [25] => ((WDS))
        )

    [1] => Array
        (
            [0] => 29M
            [1] => AMC
            [2] => CNI
            [3] => DMP
            [4] => GYG
            [5] => EMR
            [6] => KMD
            [7] => LOV
            [8] => MPL
            [9] => RRL
            [10] => S32
            [11] => AAI
            [12] => APA
            [13] => BOQ
            [14] => CGF
            [15] => GOZ
            [16] => GSS
            [17] => LIC
            [18] => LTR
            [19] => MGR
            [20] => NHC
            [21] => ORA
            [22] => PLS
            [23] => SGP
            [24] => STO
            [25] => WDS
        )

)

This story features 29METALS LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: 29M
The company is included in ALL-ORDS

Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.

By Mark Woodruff

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of seven major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday April 6 to Friday April 10, 2026
Total Upgrades: 10
Total Downgrades: 14
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 66.73%; Hold 26.35%; Sell 6.91%

For the shortened week ending Friday, April 10, 2026, FNArena recorded ten upgrades and fourteen downgrades from the seven brokers monitored daily across ASX-listed companies.

Falls in average target prices significantly outweighed rises while increases in average earnings forecasts by analysts were greater at the top end of the week’s table than declines.

Global packaging group Orora heads up the negative lists for both target and earnings after management lowered FY26 guidance, with Saverglass’ underlying earnings reduced by around -17%. 

Saverglass is the company’s premium global glass bottle division, heavily leveraged to higher-end alcohol demand.

Attributing lower guidance to weaker volumes, a negative mix shift toward wine and champagne, and disruption from the Middle East conflict, UBS lowered its target by -70c to $1.70.

The company’s UAE-based Ras Al Khaimah (RAK) manufacturing facility has been impacted by shipping constraints, prompting a shift in production to Mexico, with -EUR9m-11m of costs expected below the line.

Despite a strong balance sheet, the company is preserving capital via a pause in its share buyback, observed Citi.

Anticipating risks to the outlook due to ongoing uncertainty around demand, energy and production, Citi lowered its target to $1.80 from $2.20 and downgraded to Neutral, High Risk from Neutral.

Morgans also lowered its target to $1.55 from $2.30, noting prior owner Amcor remains its top pick for the sector.

Gentrack Group, which provides specialised billing and data software to utilities and airports, and diversified Australian property group Stockland are next on the week’s ranking for negative change to average target prices with falls of around -13% apiece.

Ord Minnett initiated coverage on ASX/NZ-listed Gentrack with a Hold rating and $5.63 target, lower than existing targets in the FNArena database.

The group’s g2 platform is viewed as approaching a growth inflection point, although risks from lengthy sales cycles and customer churn remain.

Management has identified a pipeline exceeding $135m in recurring revenue from g2 opportunities.

Migration of existing customers has potential to lift average revenue per user (ARPU) by 1.5-2.5 times, supporting longer-term growth, the analysts explained, although meaningful acceleration is seen as more likely in FY28 than FY27.

The broker also highlighted competitive pressure from Origin Energy-owned Kraken, whose scale and recent contract wins pose an ongoing churn risk across Gentrack’s legacy customer base.

Impacting upon Stockland’s target price, both Citi and Macquarie updated forecasts for stocks in the Property sector last week.

Citi noted housing headwinds via forecast 100bps interest rate hikes in 2026 and potential tax changes, weighing on investor demand. Rising construction costs are also set to pressure margins from FY27, while house prices may result in modest declines despite supply constraints.

The broker downgraded its ratings for Stockland and Mirvac to Hold (equivalent) from Buy, citing limited near-term catalysts, and the target for Stockland was reduced by -$2.10 to $4.30.

The analysts expressed a preference for land lease exposure, retaining Buy ratings on Gemlife Communities and Ingenia Communities, but downgrading Lifestyle Communities to Hold from Buy. Ingenia also appears sixth on the negative change to average target list.

Macquarie’s target for Outperform-rated Stockland was reduced by -$1.00 to $4.42 due to lower volume, price and margin assumptions for master planned communities (MPC) and land lease development. Outperform rating maintained.

This broker’s higher interest rate expectations drove low single-digit reductions to its REIT earnings forecasts generally from FY27 onwards.

A structural re-rating for Retail and Industrial sectors is anticipated, while Office is seen as facing ongoing de-rating risk amid growing concerns over the impact of AI on long-term space demand.

AI impacts on real estate assets are expected to be multi-functional as explained at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/04/09/assessing-real-estates-ai-future/

Accounting software provider Xero and healthcare technology company Pro Medicus also feature in the table below for negative change to average targets.

Citi expects Xero’s FY26 result to be somewhat complex following new segment disclosure and the inclusion of US-based fintech platform Melio.

Upside risk to FY26–FY27 earnings is seen from lower costs and favourable FX, partly offset by higher interest. Investor focus is expected to centre on Melio, customer spending trends and AI rollout and adoption.

Citi retained a Buy rating but cut its target by -22% to $112.65, reflecting lower peer multiples and more conservative medium-term growth projections.

Pro Medicus shares have fallen around -50% year-to-date, with the broker’s earnings forecasts adjusted to reflect a delay in previously secured contracts into late 2H26 and FY27.

The company recently announced a share buyback of around 10%, equating to $150m through to FY27, below the broader $1bn capacity.

Accounting for the timing shift in revenue, the analysts lowered their valuation for the Buy-rated company to $245 from $300, while maintaining the company’s competitive moat remains strong.

A valuation recovery is seen as dependent on sentiment toward SaaS and Pro Medicus’ specific growth profile.

Morgan Stanley last week cut price targets by around -20% on average across its Australian software and internet coverage, including Xero and Pro Medicus, reflecting the accelerating impact of AI on software development timelines.

Near-term EPS downgrades were modest, but more pronounced longer term, though new product and revenue opportunities are emerging. Companies will need to pivot and accelerate AI adoption to capture this upside, the analysts suggested.

Recent share price declines are seen as indiscriminate, overlooking relative competitive positioning. Morgan Stanley favours REA Group, CAR Group, WiseTech, Xero and TechnologyOne, with Hansen Technologies and Catapult Sports preferred among smaller names.

The broker’s targets for Xero and Pro Medicus were reduced by -42% and -27%, respectively, to $130 and $200.

For further reading on Rudi’s View of the ASX Technology sector and commentary around Morgan Stanley’s highest conviction favourites see https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/04/09/rudis-view-trumps-circus-technologys-brave-new-world/

Buy now pay later player Zip Co’s average target fell by around -12% last week after an update by UBS.

UBS analysts expect third quarter results due on April 17 to reflect a seasonally weaker period, with softer growth anticipated across Australia and the US and some pressure on bad debts as macro uncertainty builds.

While management is expected to partially offset these headwinds through reduced expenditure, the broker’s FY26–FY28 portfolio income and cash earnings forecasts are lowered by around -5% and -8%, respectively.

UBS retains a Buy rating, viewing the current share price as already factoring in a tougher environment, and cuts its target to $2.85 from $4.50.

The average FY26 earnings forecast for Navigator Global Investments declined by around -9% last week, although the FY27 estimate increased.

UBS made EPS downgrades across most asset and wealth managers under coverage following weaker March quarter markets, with volatility driven by AI disruption risks, geopolitics and yield curve shifts weighing on funds under management.

While valuations are becoming more attractive, the broker remains cautious on higher-volatility names, favouring Navigator and GQG Partners for their more defensive characteristics and lower equity market correlation.

UBS retained a Buy rating for Navigator and raised its target to $3.50 from $3.45.

On the flipside, biopharmaceutical company Telix Pharmaceuticals heads up the positive change to earnings forecast table after revealing stronger-than-expected first quarter revenue, highlighting the strength of its Precision Medicine division.

For a full summary on broker views of the results and FY26 guidance along with the company’s two-product PSMA imaging strategy see https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/04/10/telix-double-product-strategy-on-a-roll/

Average FY26 earnings estimates for network-as-a-service provider Megaport and sports performance company Catapult Sports also rose by 25% and 11%, respectively, though the percentage increases were exaggerated by small numbers involved.

As for Xero and Pro Medicus above, both companies were a part of Morgan Stanley’s review resulting in lower targets across Australian software and internet stocks.  

The broker’s respective targets for Megaport and Catapult fell by -10% and -23%.

As detailed further here, https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/04/09/guzman-y-gomezs-burrito-surprise-bites-shorters/, Guzman y Gomez delivered a strong Australian sales update for the March quarter, prompting short covering and upgrades to broker forecasts.

As a result, the company topped FNArena’s positive change to average target price table for the week with a rise of around 9%.

Buy ratings remain elevated at 66.73%, with Sell ratings at just 6.91%, leaving 26.35% as Neutral/Hold.

Upgrade

29METALS LIMITED ((29M)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 3/0/0

Ahead of the quarterly reporting season, Ord Minnett marks-to-market commodity prices and forecasts some softer volumes for some companies due to seasonal maintenance shutdowns and adverse weather impacts from Cyclone Narelle, as well as diesel fuel impacts from supply challenges.

No formal cost guidance is expected due to the ongoing uncertainty on the timing of any resolution in the Iran conflict.

29Metals is upgraded to Buy from Accumulate with an unchanged target of 55c. EPS forecasts are cut by -10% for 2026.

AMCOR PLC ((AMC)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 5/1/0

Ord Minnett considers the more than 70% rise in the price of petroleum-derived resin products, which represents circa 50% of Amcor’s cost of goods sold for the packaging group since the start of the Middle East conflict.

In 2021, the company experienced a 100% surge in resin prices, and management “navigated” the period, with the analyst explaining earnings remained relatively resilient over the period.

The greater impact could emanate from demand destruction from higher prices, which would potentially push volumes lower.

Ord Minnett lowers EPS forecasts slightly for FY26. The stock is upgraded to Buy from Accumulate. Target price falls to $66 from $70.

CENTURIA CAPITAL GROUP ((CNI)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/3/0

Higher interest rate expectations have driven low single-digit reductions to Macquarie’s REIT earnings forecasts from FY27 onwards.

The broker anticipates a structural re-rating for Retail and Industrial sectors, while Office faces de-rating risk amid growing concerns over the impact of AI on long-term space demand.

In residential, higher interest rates are expected to weigh on sales volumes and prices, with elevated construction costs, driven by oil prices and supply chain disruptions, adding further pressure on margins and earnings.

More broadly, higher nominal and real bond yields, alongside elevated geopolitical risk, are likely to dampen equity inflows into real estate, constraining assets under management (AUM) growth and funds management earnings.

The target for Centuria Capital falls to $1.78 from $2.02. Rating upgraded to Outperform from Neutral.

DOMINO’S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED ((DMP)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by Citi .B/H/S: 3/2/1

Citi’s research update discusses the tailwinds supporting Domino’s Pizza Enterprises in the near term, as well as an update on the latest web/app traffic trends with the support of Citi’s Research Innovation Lab to gather insights on how sales may be tracking in key markets.

The conclusion drawn is the trading update is likely to reveal improved SSS (“same stores sales”) performance relative to the rather dismal looking January/February update and on this basis the rating is upgraded to Neutral from Sell.

The update also refers to today’s market update by Guzman y Gomez ((GYG)) which triggered a 19.80% rally in the shares. Citi points out Domino’s Pizza Enterprises is equally heavily shorted.

No changes to earnings forecasts have been included. The new target is $17.50 (up 5c) as “higher peer multiples are offset by the lower market multiple”.

EMERALD RESOURCES NL ((EMR)) Upgrade to Hold from Lighten by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 0/1/0

Ahead of the quarterly reporting season, Ord Minnett marks-to-market commodity prices and forecasts some softer volumes for some companies due to seasonal maintenance shutdowns and adverse weather impacts from Cyclone Narelle, as well as diesel fuel impacts from supply challenges.

No formal cost guidance is expected due to the ongoing uncertainty on the timing of any resolution in the Iran conflict.

Emerald Resources is upgraded to Hold from Lighten with an unchanged $6.20 target.

KMD BRANDS LIMITED ((KMD)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 1/0/0

UBS upgrades KMD Brands to Buy from Neutral post the 1H26 earnings (EBITDA) result, which came in slightly higher than management’s guidance range of NZ$8m-NZ$12m, as well as a deeply discounted circa NZ$65m equity raising.

Earnings came in 19% better than the analyst’s forecasts and reflected a sales turnaround for Kathmandu, up 12% y/y and over 200bps gross margin recovery versus 2H25. A turnaround in Rip Curl is not expected until FY27, though there are signs of stabilisation in wholesale.

Earnings forecasts are lowered on average by around -4% for FY26-FY28, with EPS estimates over the same period down circa -63% due to the equity issue.

With debt reduction and recapitalisation there is scope for a re-rating into FY27 as the company moves to a turnaround from survival, UBS explains. Target price is lowered by -50% to NZ$0.14 per share from NZ$0.28.

LOVISA HOLDINGS LIMITED ((LOV)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 5/2/0

UBS upgrades Lovisa Holdings to Buy from Neutral with a lower target price of $26 from $29 with much of the risk now seen as discounted in the share price following a de-rating of the valuation post sell off.

The shares have declined -27% year-to-date (2026) and are down -32% for FY26. UBS notes risks around slower FY26 store growth, softer like-for-like sales in A&NZ, ongoing Jewells losses, and modest earnings downgrades relative to consensus.

The broker believes much of this risk is now priced in, while the resilience of Lovisa’s youth-focused, low price point offering is under-appreciated, and management is unlikely to tolerate sustained losses from Jewells.

UBS expects Jewells losses to narrow over time, with management likely to either fix performance or consider closure, limiting longer term downside.

MEDIBANK PRIVATE LIMITED ((MPL)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/3/0

Ord Minnett has reviewed its insurance and diversified financials coverage amid a backdrop of rising inflation and interest rates, following a quarter of broad underperformance despite a stronger March.

The broker expects health insurers to benefit from lower claims in an inflationary environment, while insurance brokers should gain from any recovery in premiums without near-term claims risk.

Ord Minnett’s preferred exposures remain unchanged, with nib Holdings, QBE Insurance and AMP identified as key picks within the sector.

The $5.10 target for Medibank Private is unchanged and the rating is upgraded to Buy from Accumulate. 

It’s noted health insurers are less are less exposed to investment income, resulting in modest EPS forecast upgrades.

REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED ((RRL)) Upgrade to Hold from Sell by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 4/1/1

Ahead of the quarterly reporting season, Ord Minnett marks-to-market commodity prices and forecasts some softer volumes for some companies due to seasonal maintenance shutdowns and adverse weather impacts from Cyclone Narelle, as well as diesel fuel impacts from supply challenges.

No formal cost guidance is expected due to the ongoing uncertainty on the timing of any resolution in the Iran conflict.

Regis Resources is upgraded to Hold from Sell with an unchanged $7 target.

SOUTH32 LIMITED ((S32)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 6/0/0

Ahead of the quarterly reporting season, Ord Minnett marks-to-market commodity prices and forecasts some softer volumes for some companies due to seasonal maintenance shutdowns and adverse weather impacts from Cyclone Narelle, as well as diesel fuel impacts from supply challenges.

No formal cost guidance is expected due to the ongoing uncertainty on the timing of any resolution in the Iran conflict.

South32 is upgraded to Buy from Accumulate on valuation grounds, with weather impacts flagged at its Cannington silver-lead-zinc project in north Queensland and its Groote Eylandt manganese operations in the Gulf of Carpentaria.

The target moves to $5.20 from $5.10. FY27 EPS estimate is upgraded by 7%.

Downgrade

ALCOA CORPORATION ((AAI)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 0/2/0

Ahead of the quarterly reporting season, Ord Minnett marks-to-market commodity prices and forecasts some softer volumes for some companies due to seasonal maintenance shutdowns and adverse weather impacts from Cyclone Narelle, as well as diesel fuel impacts from supply challenges.

No formal cost guidance is expected due to the ongoing uncertainty on the timing of any resolution in the Iran conflict.

Alcoa is downgraded to Hold from Buy with an unchanged $103 target.

APA GROUP ((APA)) Downgrade to Lighten from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/0/1

Ord Minnett has reviewed its commodity price assumptions and energy sector coverage as the war in the Middle East continues amid considerable damage to production facilities in the Persian Gulf.

The review has resulted in increases to June quarter spot price assumptions, representing a rise of 33% for both Brent crude and LNG. This in turn drives steep earnings upgrades for some producers and more modest changes to others under the broker’s coverage.

A price of US$100/barrel is forecast for the first half of 2026 for Brent before a gradual retreat to US$85/barrel in the second half. LNG prices are assumed at US$20/mmBtu in the first half and remain elevated for the rest of the year.

Ord Minnett downgrades APA Group to Lighten from Hold, maintaining a steady target at $8.30.

BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED ((BOQ)) Downgrade to Lighten from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 3/2/0

Ord Minnett downgrades Bank of Queensland to Lighten from Hold on valuation grounds with no change in target of $6.

The bank will return circa $300m to shareholders following the -$3.7bn sale of its equipment finance book to Challenger ((CGF)), with remaining proceeds used to reduce debt. EPS forecasts lift slightly for FY26 and FY27.

Under the forward-flow structure, Challenger assumes funding and credit risk while the bank retains servicing, though the arrangement is initially limited to 12 months, creating refinancing risk if not extended.

While the deal reflects strategic innovation to improve returns, commentary highlights competitive pressures and margin headwinds persist.

GROWTHPOINT PROPERTIES AUSTRALIA ((GOZ)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/1/0

Higher interest rate expectations have driven low single-digit reductions to Macquarie’s REIT earnings forecasts from FY27 onwards.

The broker anticipates a structural re-rating for Retail and Industrial sectors, while Office faces de-rating risk amid growing concerns over the impact of AI on long-term space demand.

In residential, higher interest rates are expected to weigh on sales volumes and prices, with elevated construction costs, driven by oil prices and supply chain disruptions, adding further pressure on margins and earnings.

More broadly, higher nominal and real bond yields, alongside elevated geopolitical risk, are likely to dampen equity inflows into real estate, constraining assets under management (AUM) growth and funds management earnings.

The target for Growthpoint Properties Australia falls to $2.02 from $2.58. The rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform..

GENETIC SIGNATURES LIMITED ((GSS)) Downgrade to Speculative Hold from Buy by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 0/1/0

Bell Potter downgrades Genetic Signatures to Speculative Hold from Speculative Buy, with a lower target price of 10c from 55c, due to increased uncertainty around the outlook, with few signs of a turnaround post the FDA clearance in 2024.

The company announced a major organisational restructure and cost-out initiatives less than one month after CEO Maria Halasz started.

Over the last two years, cash burn stood at circa -$2m per quarter, with $30m in cash at the end of December 2025. The cost-out plans, including a reduction in staff by -30, should support Genetic Signatures out to 2028, the analyst explains.

LIFESTYLE COMMUNITIES LIMITED ((LIC)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 0/4/0

Citi expects housing market headwinds to emerge following a revised forecast for 100bps of cash rate hikes in 2026, alongside potential tax changes, which may weigh on investor demand.

Rising construction costs are also expected to pressure developer margins, particularly from FY27. While strong migration and supply shortages should support pricing, national house prices are seen as experiencing modest declines.

Citi downgrades ratings for residential developers Stockland and Mirvac Group to Neutral, citing limited near-term catalysts despite recent share price weakness.

The broker prefers land lease exposure, retaining Buy ratings on Gemlife Communities and Ingenia Communities, but downgrades Lifestyle Communities to Neutral from Buy.

The target for Lifestyle Communities falls to $5.10 from $5.60.

LIONTOWN LIMITED ((LTR)) Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/4/0

Ahead of the quarterly reporting season, Ord Minnett marks-to-market commodity prices and forecasts some softer volumes for some companies due to seasonal maintenance shutdowns and adverse weather impacts from Cyclone Narelle, as well as diesel fuel impacts from supply challenges.

No formal cost guidance is expected due to the ongoing uncertainty on the timing of any resolution in the Iran conflict.

Liontown is downgraded to Hold from Accumulate with a lower target of $1.80 from $1.90.

MIRVAC GROUP ((MGR)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 2/3/0

Citi expects housing market headwinds to emerge following a revised forecast for 100bps of cash rate hikes in 2026, alongside potential tax changes, which may weigh on investor demand.

Rising construction costs are also expected to pressure developer margins, particularly from FY27. While strong migration and supply shortages should support pricing, national house prices are seen as experiencing modest declines.

Citi downgrades ratings for residential developers Stockland and Mirvac Group to Neutral, citing limited near-term catalysts despite recent share price weakness.

The broker prefers land lease exposure, retaining Buy ratings on Gemlife Communities and Ingenia Communities, but downgrades Lifestyle Communities to Neutral from Buy.

The target for Mirvac Group falls to $1.84 from $2.50.

NEW HOPE CORPORATION LIMITED ((NHC)) Downgrade to Lighten from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/2/0

Ahead of the quarterly reporting season, Ord Minnett marks-to-market commodity prices and forecasts some softer volumes for some companies due to seasonal maintenance shutdowns and adverse weather impacts from Cyclone Narelle, as well as diesel fuel impacts from supply challenges.

No formal cost guidance is expected due to the ongoing uncertainty on the timing of any resolution in the Iran conflict.

New Hope is downgraded to Lighten from Hold with an unchanged target of $4.70.

ORORA LIMITED ((ORA)) Downgrade to Neutral, High Risk from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 1/4/0

Management at Orora has downgraded Saverglass’ FY26 underlying earnings (EBIT) guidance by -$22.8m, representing around 8% of the consensus forecast for $274m, Citi highlights.

The analyst explains the downgrade reflects weaker product mix and softer demand, particularly in wine.

Additional fixed costs of -EUR9m-11m related to the temporary closure of the RAK (UAE-based) manufacturing facility are excluded from underlying earnings.

Despite a strong balance sheet, the company is preserving capital via a buyback pause, observes Citi.

With ongoing uncertainty around demand, energy and production, the broker sees risks to the outlook and retains a Neutral rating, introducing a High-Risk designation, which amounts to a ratings downgrade.

Target falls to $1.80 from $2.30.

PLS GROUP LIMITED ((PLS)) Downgraded to Accumulate from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 3/4/0

Ahead of the quarterly reporting season, Ord Minnett marks-to-market commodity prices and forecasts some softer volumes for some companies due to seasonal maintenance shutdowns and adverse weather impacts from Cyclone Narelle, as well as diesel fuel impacts from supply challenges.

No formal cost guidance is expected due to the ongoing uncertainty on the timing of any resolution in the Iran conflict.

PLS Group is downgraded to Accumulate from Buy with an unchanged $5.55 target price.

STOCKLAND ((SGP)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 2/3/0

Citi expects housing market headwinds to emerge following a revised forecast for 100bps of cash rate hikes in 2026, alongside potential tax changes, which may weigh on investor demand.

Rising construction costs are also expected to pressure developer margins, particularly from FY27. While strong migration and supply shortages should support pricing, national house prices are seen as experiencing modest declines.

Citi downgrades ratings for residential developers Stockland and Mirvac Group to Neutral, citing limited near-term catalysts despite recent share price weakness.

The broker prefers land lease exposure, retaining Buy ratings on Gemlife Communities and Ingenia Communities, but downgrades Lifestyle Communities to Neutral from Buy.

The target for Stockland falls to $4.30 from $6.40.

SANTOS LIMITED ((STO)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 4/2/0

Ord Minnett has reviewed its commodity price assumptions and energy sector coverage as the war in the Middle East continues amid considerable damage to production facilities in the Persian Gulf.

The review has resulted in increases to June quarter spot price assumptions, representing a rise of 33% for both Brent crude and LNG. This in turn drives steep earnings upgrades for some producers and more modest changes to others under the broker’s coverage.

A price of US$100/barrel is forecast for the first half of 2026 for Brent before a gradual retreat to US$85/barrel in the second half. LNG prices are assumed at US$20/mmBtu in the first half and remain elevated for the rest of the year.

Ord Minnett trims its rating on Santos to Accumulate from Buy and raises the target to $7.80 from $7.40.

WOODSIDE ENERGY GROUP LIMITED ((WDS)) Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 0/4/2

Morgans downgrades Woodside Energy to Hold from Accumulate and lowers its target to $33.40 from $33.55.

The stock is now seen as an “active wager” on the oil crisis being more permanent. While this may be possible, the broker questions whether this should form a base case and steering strategy.

While retaining significant conviction of the portfolio quality and track record on execution, and while the current geopolitical disruption is elevating commodity prices, the share price now reflects these dynamics, Morgans asserts.

The stock has appreciated around 52% in total returns from January alone driven by the conflict and associated supply shock across crude and LNG markets.

The broker believes the investment profile has shifted from providing a hedge to “being a bet on what is an uncertain outlook”.

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
Broker Recommendation Breakup

Click to view our Glossary of Financial Terms